January 28, 2025 - 10:00am

This week marks half a decade since the UK formally left the European Union. Five years on from Boris Johnson’s deal, Labour and the EU are tentatively considering new arrangements. Depending on your perspective, this could be about evolving a previously underwhelming Brexit or unpicking the newfound freedoms it granted. Regardless, it is almost certain to reignite the political controversy around Britain’s place in Europe.

Speaking on Sunday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves signalled an openness, but not a commitment, to joining the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention, something previously rejected by the Tories. This is not a customs union but a scheme for easing European trade between the bloc and surrounding countries. The main winners would be companies with complex supply chains stretching across the continent, which would find it easier to import, use, and re-sell parts originating from the EU, Balkans and North Africa.

There is a chance that this indicates a new type of post-Brexit politics, one characterised by reconciliation with Europe but within clear boundaries. While the last government seemed determined to say “no” to anything European, Labour is looking for a bespoke relationship with the EU — but at the moment, the party is firm that this does not involve the single market or customs union. Even without those steps, however, it starts to look like realignment by a thousand steps.

This could be an approach that disappoints everyone. For those pushing to rejoin, it might never be enough while at the same time stifling some of the broader trading opportunities Brexiteers have promised. In the context of Donald Trump’s tariffs, it is a real choice to pivot towards Europe, but one that could prove frustrating if the EU also clamps down further on external trade. There is an opportunity for Britain to play well as an outsider to both camps, as well as a risk that it becomes stuck between and buffeted by the two.

Politically, Labour thinks it is taking the safer option. Most polling now suggests that Brexit is unpopular and that the public favour closer relations with the EU than with the US. Even Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has admitted that the last government made a “mistake” in the way it handled withdrawing from the EU. Reeves and Keir Starmer hope they will benefit from a steady re-engagement with Europe, as some of the passion and vitriol of the Brexit years have subsided. For many, however, the issue remains highly contentious.

Rather than Labour, it could be Reform UK which benefits. Nigel Farage was always at his strongest politically when Brexit was on the table. It powered his rise through Ukip, and his first major swipe at the Tories came through the Brexit Party in the 2019 European elections. With Labour re-engaging with Europe and the Tories wavering on their record, Reform could position itself as the guardian of the one true Brexit.

This would suit the party. It would tie together its platform once again and would reinforce its link with pro-Brexit voters. Reform could lean into Farage’s American, pro-Trump links and demonstrate that it is a clear alternative to both Labour and the Tories. This could be electorally advantageous in seats where the party wants to take on the Conservatives, but also in the Labour heartlands where it needs to make inroads if it wants to be a real force in Westminster.

Five years on, Britain’s relationship with Europe is still influenced by the memories and passions of Brexit. Each move towards the Union, like the PEM, will be viewed through that lens. As trade becomes more globally contentious, Labour will struggle to avoid making big decisions on where it is going to prefer. Moves such as this start to look like favouring Europe, charting a new reconciliation. The question is whether the public will accept that, or whether the old tensions will flare.


John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.

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