This week marks half a decade since the UK formally left the European Union. Five years on from Boris Johnson’s deal, Labour and the EU are tentatively considering new arrangements. Depending on your perspective, this could be about evolving a previously underwhelming Brexit or unpicking the newfound freedoms it granted. Regardless, it is almost certain to reignite the political controversy around Britain’s place in Europe.
Speaking on Sunday, Chancellor Rachel Reeves signalled an openness, but not a commitment, to joining the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention, something previously rejected by the Tories. This is not a customs union but a scheme for easing European trade between the bloc and surrounding countries. The main winners would be companies with complex supply chains stretching across the continent, which would find it easier to import, use, and re-sell parts originating from the EU, Balkans and North Africa.
There is a chance that this indicates a new type of post-Brexit politics, one characterised by reconciliation with Europe but within clear boundaries. While the last government seemed determined to say “no” to anything European, Labour is looking for a bespoke relationship with the EU — but at the moment, the party is firm that this does not involve the single market or customs union. Even without those steps, however, it starts to look like realignment by a thousand steps.
This could be an approach that disappoints everyone. For those pushing to rejoin, it might never be enough while at the same time stifling some of the broader trading opportunities Brexiteers have promised. In the context of Donald Trump’s tariffs, it is a real choice to pivot towards Europe, but one that could prove frustrating if the EU also clamps down further on external trade. There is an opportunity for Britain to play well as an outsider to both camps, as well as a risk that it becomes stuck between and buffeted by the two.
Politically, Labour thinks it is taking the safer option. Most polling now suggests that Brexit is unpopular and that the public favour closer relations with the EU than with the US. Even Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has admitted that the last government made a “mistake” in the way it handled withdrawing from the EU. Reeves and Keir Starmer hope they will benefit from a steady re-engagement with Europe, as some of the passion and vitriol of the Brexit years have subsided. For many, however, the issue remains highly contentious.
Rather than Labour, it could be Reform UK which benefits. Nigel Farage was always at his strongest politically when Brexit was on the table. It powered his rise through Ukip, and his first major swipe at the Tories came through the Brexit Party in the 2019 European elections. With Labour re-engaging with Europe and the Tories wavering on their record, Reform could position itself as the guardian of the one true Brexit.
This would suit the party. It would tie together its platform once again and would reinforce its link with pro-Brexit voters. Reform could lean into Farage’s American, pro-Trump links and demonstrate that it is a clear alternative to both Labour and the Tories. This could be electorally advantageous in seats where the party wants to take on the Conservatives, but also in the Labour heartlands where it needs to make inroads if it wants to be a real force in Westminster.
Five years on, Britain’s relationship with Europe is still influenced by the memories and passions of Brexit. Each move towards the Union, like the PEM, will be viewed through that lens. As trade becomes more globally contentious, Labour will struggle to avoid making big decisions on where it is going to prefer. Moves such as this start to look like favouring Europe, charting a new reconciliation. The question is whether the public will accept that, or whether the old tensions will flare.
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SubscribeTend to agree – political catnip for Reform. I was thinking last night that we should be grateful for Reform’s existence. It appears to be an overflow pipe for disgruntlement and could be a bulwark against civil unrest in the short-term. However, with every Labour edict (extended NCHIs the latest leaked dossier report) I fear it won’t hold much beyond Q2, particularly as council tax rises hit and NIC costs are passed on in shopping baskets and elsewhere.
Hopefully your stance will move from “gratitude” to “voting”.
UK enters EU. Gets seriously burnt. UK leaves EU. Gets even more burnt.
And now the UK wants to put its hand back in the fire. Why?
Because Europe is a cosy non-threatening place to be. If you’re a politician and you want to do something which seems to be anti-nationalistic, as a member of the EU you get want you want because “everybody is doing it, so it must be OK, mustn’t it.” Everybody copies everybody else and your life is easy. And there is an EU gravy train, of course – a job for Keir after he has been chucked out.
And also the outlook of the grass is greener elsewhere.
It would be crazy to even consider closer links with EU while the main power house there, Germany, is failing on multiple fronts.
Europe is increasingly a nationalistic place but Labour seems determined not to notice. The Commission, of course, is blithely continuing with business as usual and perhaps, as Starmer’s discussions are with the Commission rather than with member states (such as Hungary, Austria, Slovenia, The Netherlands, Italy etc.) he is too thick to appreciate what’s happening outside the ivory towers of Brussels.
Not to mention the collapse of Continental economies, which would become all too apparent to the electorate during a referendum campaign.
I’m not sure that Reichskanzler Von Der Leyen will permit any such referendums.
So true but sadly not for the general populace though, many of whom are now beginning to see the anti-democratic, anti-free speech fangs and claws sticking out of the sheep’s clothing. That Starmer is keen to rejoin says it all.
I have a vision of Starmer knocking on the door of the EU bunker, begging to be let in. Starmer thinks it will be a safe place, but opposing forces are closing in…
Joining PEM is in and of itself entirely positive. It doesn’t give up law-making power but does make trade easier. Maybe it’s 1000 step plan to rejoin the EU…but it’s not the step to fight a battle on.
Notwithstanding any of that, it can be spun as a betrayal and presumably Farage will take advantage if he possible can. And he’s very good at that!
Disagree Anthony – looking at it dispassionately – the EU gains more than we do – see this trade report.
https://citp.ac.uk/publications/should-the-uk-join-pem
There are always costs and benefits in joint agreements – cool heads required to work out those benefits.
Symbolically – it looks good to for EU as we are perceived to being drawn more into their regulatory orbit.
Politically too – when dealing with the EU it’s always advisable to understand & manage the downside – we are after all colleagues & competitors alike – it just took Brexit & 45 years to understand this.
“ but at the moment, the party is firm that this does not involve the single market or customs union.”
The key words here are “at the moment”. Sounds awfully like “we have no plans” and “we will have strict safeguards” and all the other weasel phrases we’re so used to. So long as it really does stop at a trading agreement and never becomes “closer political collaboration” or “adopting useful EU regulations” or “we can’t have truly free trade until we have free movement and shared judiciary” then it’s fine. But mission creep happens, especially when those in charge want it.
I can see REF 30%, CON 20%, LAB 20% before the end of 2025. That sort of result would have them closing in on a majority in an election and would all but guarantee a REF/CON coalition of some sort with Farage as PM and leaving the ECHR, ditching net zero, very low immigration caps, re-writing the HRA and Equalities Acts to get rid of two-tier policies, etc, as part of the pact agreement.
Bring it on!
Could the unthinkable happen though, Labour and the Conservatives go into coalition? It would suit the politics of both to try to keep Reform out, but the uproar amongst the electorate and markets would be enormous. A point to note, I would not want this to happen.
I think a coalition between Labour and the Conservatives is as likely as a coalition between the IDF and Hamas. What would be the point since they agree on almost nothing? Reform and the Tories are a much better fit and the former have gained a lot more respectability than, say, AfD in Germany, though AfD are slowly getting there, one terror incident at a time.
Whilst i agree it’s more likely for the Tories to go into coalition with Reform, i think KA has a point. Although Labour and Tories are ‘meant’ to be ideologically opposed, in effect, all they’ve been interested in doing these past 30 years is gaining power… and then doing either nothing with it, or causing more damage to the UK (apart from Brexit).
In that sense, it’s not unthinkable they could mash some kind of agreement together to keep out an insurgent political party.
It’s about as likely as The Smiths getting together again. Or The Beatles.
That would necessitate all globalist uni-party members coming out of the closet and some of them will be very shy to show their true colours.
It’s a possibility, positioned as a “government of unity” to keep out the “far right populist peril” but I think it is highly improbable. More likely than that is that labour continue to flounder, economic situation deteriorates and by year end they have to cut public spending – cue revolt on the left – strikes etc. IMF come calling sometime in 2026, maybe. It’s very hard to call as the UK is so unstable at present that any number of things could trigger economic breakdown or civil unrest. The whole thing is a slo-mo disaster.
Yes, it would be nice. But that looks more like a projection than a prediction to me i.e. it’s extrapolating from the current rise of Reform but politics doesn’t have the predictable trajectory of a flying arrow. One careless remark from Nigel and potential voters, who believe the BBC is a reliable and impartial news organisation, could bolt for the hills.
Yes that is all very true – anything could happen. UKIP/BP/Reform have been plagued by eccentric members making fruity comments that are then picked up by journalists for days on end. I suppose it is an inherent problem for small parties who have to rapidly find candidates, donors etc.
Rejoining Europe does not help Scotland and Wales if they want to secede from the UK. The EU refused to deal with Catalonia a few years ago, saying that it wouldn’t help with the break-up of European countries. I believe that if secession happened first, rejoining would be a lot easier – and England would then be forced into it as well.
Don’t believe that at all.
If Scotland became independent and was accepted for entry by the EU, they’d have – by the EU’s logic – to build a hard border with England. Not going to happen.
The UK doesn’t need to “reconcile” with the EU – the EU needs to reconcile with us.
There was never any danger that we were ‘anti-European’. The political project just wasn’t for us.
Furthermore: recent ‘anti-Brexit’ polling is simply a reflection that UK governments have wasted the post-Brexit period.
Labour doesn’t have any other ideas beyond tagging along behind the EU. But neither does Reform, whose flagship policy should be selling off half the NHS. Farage knows that the UK should have a Continental social insurance healthcare system. It would radically reduce immigration too; they just don’t it in themselves to be radical.
PEM favours Brussels – let’s be in no doubt about that – it’s certainly not in any shape or form a game changer for the UK.
Sefcovic offering what looks like a gift is a case of ‘Warning Will Robinson ‘.
It’s symbolically good for EU to look reasonable – they want big & drastic changes to the UK/EU fishing policy up for renegotiation in 2026 – Starmer will give in on Fish and PEM being an international socialist.
The EU is and always was a political & trading competitor – forewarned is forearmed.
I wouldn’t worry too much about the European Union.
It’s death is virtually sealed. With the AFD rising in Germany and the recent shift in position of the CDU on Germany’s borders the sun is setting on the EU project. The core tenet of the project is open borders and the borders in Europe are heading for closure, but one Germany takes that step it is officially over. It will continue to exist in name only, probably being reformed into some sort of defensive pact.
This is just the neo-liberals massaging their sentimentality.
This article misses the most important development occurring in Europe – the emergence of governments committed to the nation state and determined to end the power grab of the EU and its institutions. It is often said that Reform voters would accept the Common Market settlement voted for in the mid-70s. Most EU citizens want the same. Reform under a new leader might seek to be part of this post-EU Europe.