Could Kemi Badenoch lead the Tories to victory at the next general election? It’s not as unlikely as it seems. Earlier this week, Hugo Gye of The I was the latest commentator to entertain the possibility of a Tory revival. Is this prospect realistic, or are the Tories still heading for a worse performance at the next election worse than the crushing defeat of 2024?

Opportunities are opening up for Badenoch’s party. The Labour Party is in deep trouble — all the more so following the revelation that, contrary to Keir Starmer’s own words, Peter Mandelson failed the security vetting for his appointment as ambassador to Washington. All this will come to a head next week at Prime Minister’s Questions, as Badenoch faces Starmer across the dispatch box while the other party leaders chip in from the sidelines.

On the one hand, the Conservative leader is on the brink of her greatest parliamentary triumph so far; on the other, she faces humiliation in the May local elections. As Gye points out, “apart from in London, where the Tories may make some gains, they are almost certain to take an almighty battering in councils across England as well as going backwards in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments.”

“Going backwards” is putting it mildly. Polling shows the Tories falling from third to fifth place in Scotland, and losing most of their seats in the Welsh Senedd. As for the elections in England, the Conservatives are set to lose almost all the councils they currently hold outside London — including heartlands like Essex, where the party leader has her own constituency.

The story Badenoch has spun around her leadership is all about steady progress, but it’s hard to see that line surviving the wipeout heading her way. Unless Starmer resigns at exactly the right time to provide a convenient distraction, she will need a complete narrative reset.

Luckily, there’s one available. However, it will require Badenoch to do something that she’s largely ducked so far: denounce her predecessors. The reason why so many Tory councillors, MSPs and Senedd members are about to lose their jobs is that when their seats were last fought, the party was polling at around double what it is now. Most of the damage was done when Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak were in charge, not Badenoch — but it’s time that she said so.

Distancing the Conservative Party from its failures in office is hard to do when many of those responsible are in the current Shadow Cabinet, however. The most senior positions are filled by Priti Patel, who was home secretary during the Boriswave; Chris Philp, who was chief secretary to the Treasury during the mini-budget meltdown; and Mel Stride, who as Work and Pensions Secretary presided over rocketing welfare bills. And if those blasts from the past weren’t enough, it’s reported that David Cameron is back to help Badenoch with PMQs.

A timely display of contrition might have helped. A serious self-examination would be even better. Instead, the likes of Patel have tried to defend their actions, but it’s too late to make amends now. Badenoch’s reset must begin with a comprehensive reshuffle of her top team. Nick Timothy could be a fit for shadow home secretary given his robust stances on immigration and assimilation, while Tom Tugendhat would make sense as shadow foreign secretary considering his experience in the military and as security minister. Rising stars Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Claire Coutinho could all be options for the role of shadow chancellor.

Badenoch won’t want to sack loyal colleagues — but it’s her party holding her back, not the other way round. Now is the time for a comprehensive, publicized reset, sending a message to voters that this is not the same Conservative Party that was in charge of the country for 14 years. It’s time, then, for a Shadow Cabinet that looks like the next Conservative government, not the last one.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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