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Kemi Badenoch is vulnerable as the Tory frontrunner

Badenoch is a favourite among members, but will she win over MPs? Credit: Getty

July 12, 2024 - 11:30am

β€œIt is not a principle of the Conservative Party to stab its leader in the back, but I must admit it appears to be a practice.” So quipped Arthur Balfour, the man who led the Conservative Party to its worst-ever defeat β€” until last week.

It was true over a century ago as it is now. In the post-power struggle for the Conservative Party, the knives are not so much out as already bloodied. Kemi Badenoch reportedly spent the first Shadow Cabinet meeting since the election β€œripping into” Rishi Sunak over what was a mostly shambolic general election campaign.

According to the report, she claimed that the then-Prime Minister’s decision to call an early election without informing his Cabinet bordered on β€œunconstitutional”, that the D-Day blunder was β€œdisastrous” and cost many MPs their seats, and that Craig Williams β€” Sunak’s Parliamentary Private Secretary, who placed a bet on the timing of the election β€” was a β€œbuffoon”. Given that this was the meeting in which Sunak supposedly took β€œfull responsibility” for the election defeat, this was not so much stabbing Caesar as waiting until he returns as a ghost in Act V. Per reports this week, her team is preparing for a β€œcircular firing squad” against her.

Badenoch’s position as leadership frontrunner makes her vulnerable. According to YouGov, she currently has the support of 31% of the party β€” more than twice that of Braverman, her closest challenger. This high figure is unlikely to last, as Conservative Party leadership contests rarely see the favourite improve their position. What’s more, Badenoch’s appeal β€” a willingness to engage in cultural issues, commitment to Brexit, acceptable enough for the centre of the party while appealing to the Right β€” naturally lends itself to support being siphoned away.

Braverman is also on the Right, and has also sought this week to emphasise her culturally conservative values. Meanwhile, James Cleverly was an ardent Brexiteer who has support across the party. Tom Tugendhat is more polished, and much more attractive to centrist MPs. Robert Jenrick’s resignation in protest at the watering-down of the Rwanda Bill means he has more credibility to criticise the previous leadership’s mistakes.

There is another old adage about the Conservative Party that Badenoch would be wise to heed: β€œHe who wields the dagger rarely wins the crown.” Or she, in this case. Landing the first blow will have damaged her chances to be leader β€” but so too will the manner in which it was delivered.

First impressions matter, and if the rest of Badenoch’s campaign follows the same tone, some may question her suitability as leader. This is not the campaign that the Tories need to fight, nor the manner in which they need to fight it. In order to win back the public’s trust, they need sober reflection on their failures in government, analysis of the voters they alienated and the reasons this happened, and positive advocacy for what the party needs to become in order to win them back.

Badenoch has an combative personal style that has won her many critics, and which may make her campaign difficult to run. Further, as Ian Dunt writes in the Independent, it could make her an awkward fit for the job, given that she has been β€œhostile to journalists” and β€œeasily frustrated” during broadcast interviews, β€œoften ending up in a personal battle with the interviewer”. This is a less than an ideal quality in a leader of the Opposition, who should be battling for every gasp of media oxygen they can get.

The Tories must tread a long, hard road to winning back the public. What they require in a leader is someone who can explain where the party currently stands, how it got here, and where the coming road leads, not to mention the ability to lead supporters down it. Badenoch and her allies have a hard task in convincing the party that she is the person to do this.

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Stephen Follows
Stephen Follows
5 months ago

Tosh. We need to take Starmer down as often as possible or Farage will do the job for us.

Michael Cazaly
Michael Cazaly
5 months ago

Who cares? The Conservative party is finished and in reality was when they got Cameron instead of Davis.

Alan Hawkes
Alan Hawkes
5 months ago

As one of Kemi Badenoch’s constituents who has met her on several occasions and had her support on charitable activities, I would offer that her personality is more rounded than the “attack-dog” label might suggest.

Robbie K
Robbie K
5 months ago
Reply to  Alan Hawkes

She has way more appeal than Braverman and the other candidates. What she should do however is stop posting big statements on social media.

David M
David M
5 months ago
Reply to  Robbie K

What big statements?

General Store
General Store
4 months ago
Reply to  Alan Hawkes

But they do need an attack dog. That’s why Kemi is not the person. She’s too interested in being leader….and will sacrifice her social conservatism to that end. We need Farage.

Chipoko
Chipoko
5 months ago

Suella Braverman is a more impressive intellect.

j watson
j watson
5 months ago
Reply to  Chipoko

Not sure ‘impressive’ quite the word we were all reaching for, but you will have brought some cheer into the end of the wk.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
5 months ago
Reply to  j watson

Well, she does at least know how to compose a sentence.

j watson
j watson
5 months ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

She might need a bit more than that to be a future PM. You’ll be delighted to know I’m not running.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
4 months ago
Reply to  j watson

πŸ™‚

Lancashire Lad
Lancashire Lad
5 months ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

She’ll need to be stronger on ‘sentencing’ by the time Labour have finished with the criminal justice system.

Frederick Dixon
Frederick Dixon
5 months ago

If the Tories do not come to some sort of accommodation with Reform we are in for a very long spell of left-wing government, and I don’t think our country (already in a parlous condition) could survive that in a recognisable shape.
Only Braverman and Jenrick are ideologically positioned to come to such an accommodation.
By the way, what the heck is Tugendhat doing among the runners? If the Tories choose him, they really do have a death wish!

Michael Cazaly
Michael Cazaly
5 months ago

He’s there because he is heir to Cameron

j watson
j watson
5 months ago

As it is Kemi and Suella have both ‘shot their bolt’ already with their demonstrations of emotional intelligence. Disappointed as either as Tory leader would have been entertaining and led quickly to yet another psychodrama. That would have been more fun as at least they wouldn’t be in charge of a Govt Ministry at the same time.
Kemi’s star unfortunately burned too bright too soon before she’d grasped what leadership was really going to be about.
Money’s on Cleverley.
Oh hang a minute Tory membership will have a say won’t they? Err could therefore be some clueless buffoon who knows how to not upset blue rinse Boomers.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
4 months ago
Reply to  j watson

At least Kemi doesn’t go in for the endless nauseating grovelling and pandering to ludicrous ‘progressive’ nonsense that seems to have become de rigeur for every other Conservative politician. She’ll be able to hold her head high when, for instance, the current mania for child mutilation and rampant misogyny goes the same way as the Left’s historic enthusiasm for eugenics, sterilisation of the poor and Stalin. How many of the rest of them can you say that about.

J 0
J 0
4 months ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

She was conjured up by Gove, who programmed her with Govian software. We saw some of that when she refused to abandoned the EU red-tape with some pusillanimous excuses. Basically, she just another centrist wanting to continue the B.liar Tribute Party.

j watson
j watson
4 months ago
Reply to  J 0

I knew there was a reason I quite liked her. Thanks for the clarification.

j watson
j watson
4 months ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

I quite like Kemi, but I fear she’s shown an abrasiveness that won’t help her win, nor be as good in effective Opposition as needed. You also need a bit more than anti-EDI rhetoric even if it’s good rhetoric.
As regards the child mutilation – one assumes you are part referencing Braverman’s dreadful Washington speech which is what prompted Kemi to suggest Suella was having a nervous breakdown? And this part why I like Kemi. No child has been surgically mutilated. Conversion surgery has never been legal for children. It’s therefore deliberately misleading and incendiary, and demonstrates the unfitness of Braverman. As it is you’ll be glad to hear Streeting about to permanently ban puberty blockers.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
4 months ago
Reply to  j watson

Conversion surgery has never been legal for children.
I didn’t say it had. In addition to making a little more effort with your grammar and syntax you should also read more carefully.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
5 months ago

Stopped reading after Ian Dunt was cited. You might as well tell us what James O’Brien thinks.

General Store
General Store
4 months ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

Can he think? That’s kind of big news

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
5 months ago

Personally I like kemi badenoch – but she isn’t PM material. I hope she becomes chancellor or similar one day but agree with the article, she just won’t resonate with the public enough and is too abrasive.

Kier Starmer is hardly Mr charisma but he has a red rosette on which on many eyes makes him a ‘nice guy’

I don’t think Braverman is likeable enough either tbh. In fact there is a lack of charisma in the top Tory circles… William Hague and IDS were excellent MPs but just didn’t have that x factor…and I think they are more charismatic than any current Tories. The blues have a charm problem.

Alex Lekas
Alex Lekas
5 months ago

The Tories must tread a long, hard road to winning back the public.
Do they? The public is a fickle beast. Most of it realizes the lies it was told about Covid, most of it understands the folly behind perpetually funneling money to the laundromat of Ukraine, and most of it understands that leaving the borders open ends badly. Punishing the Tories is not the same as affirming Labor, which is likely to do nothing to improve either the border or the warmongering.

Matt M
Matt M
5 months ago

Kemi is the only one with star quality and who can cut through with the general public. Well expect for Boris but he is not available. Cameron had a bit of charm in the old days, but those days are long behind him.
This is a rare quality in the Commons. Starmer has none. Ange might have a bit. Farage has bags, obviously.
They would be foolish to go with anyone else. Remember, so far they have managed to select Theresa May and Liz Truss, both of whom were uncomfortable talking to an audience, unable to think on their feet and came across as awkward and unappealing. And also Rishi Sunak who couldn’t even announce the date of the election without mishap. So it is quite likely they will pick a non-entity and cede ground entirely to Reform.

Anthony Roe
Anthony Roe
5 months ago

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. As someone must have said. Zero Tories still very much on the cards.

Rob N
Rob N
4 months ago
Reply to  Anthony Roe

Napoleon

David M
David M
5 months ago

They need someone with personality and who is on the right. They need to be able to disown and move on from the lack of Conservatism endured over the last five years. They need to win over Reform voters and maybe be ready to cut a deal with Reform. Badenoch and Braverman should be contenders, but I’m not sure who else cuts it.

Duncan McCord
Duncan McCord
4 months ago

The Tories need shutting in a dark room, for as long as it takes, so that when they emerge they are, on the face of it at least, ‘as one’. And that one should be KB. I’ve listened to her speeches from day one and she does resonate with people. If trust is to be regained, who better to do it than someone who understands conservatism and the need for it, is not afraid to speak her mind, knows what a woman is, and is young enough to catch some of the younger vote? What’s so wrong with standing up for yourself? Elbow grease and being right of centre is all it’ll need – once those who went over to Reform see there is someone they can trust, they’ll come back. The right simply cannot afford to be split – Reform gave Labour a huge leg up in this GE and their leaders said they didn’t care. If that’s their level of insight and they keep it up, then the five of them might as well sit on the Government benches.

Simon Blanchard
Simon Blanchard
4 months ago

Badenoch’s stroppy attitude is one of things I like best about her. There’s no reason she should cosy up to her interviewers, especially when all they’re ever really doing is trying to tee up the next β€œgotcha” moment.

Miriam Cotton
Miriam Cotton
4 months ago

It’s absurd to label Badenoch ‘an attack dog’ but then strong leadership and plain speaking in a woman were ever regarded thus. There are any number of fools in the Conservatives whom she is quite correct not to suffer gladly. She’s a formidably intelligent person with an astute grasp of detail. Also a great communicator and the most capable potential leader by a country mile. The Conservatives should give up their interminable internecine mewling and bickering and get behind her. Any who can’t manage that should go off to the ‘Reform’ party.

Rob N
Rob N
4 months ago
Reply to  Miriam Cotton

If Kemi gets in then her first job must be to get rid of the CINOs and make sure that being a Conservative means something and electors will know what.

Santiago Excilio
Santiago Excilio
4 months ago

I disagree that she needs to be more inclusive, polished and less abrasive. Frankly there is a pretty large slice of what remains of the party who are wet wipes and need to decamp to either labour or the Lib Dem’s. And the sooner they go the better, because there will be no β€œrebuilding” of the conservative party whilst the deathwatch beetle of centrism is lurking in the timbers; that needs exterminating. And if she can’t bring a critical mass with her and ditch the rest then she should join reform. They are going to need good people if they are ever to take over the crown of party of the right.

El Uro
El Uro
4 months ago

It would be nice to add a couple of North American Indians to her for a spicy kick.
In the end, the issue of breed became, starting with Obama, the main one in the process of selecting a circus troupe.

John Murray
John Murray
4 months ago

Every reported statement by Badenoch has the virtue of being actually true. And being combative in interviews is, I think, an asset these days when so much of media coverage is about going viral. cf. Farage, Nigel.
Having said that, there are others in the leadership contenders who could make a good fist of the job too in their own way. I just would not hold Kemi’s being fond of an argument or willingness to tread on the delicate sensibilities of the BBC et al. as a weakness.

0 01
0 01
4 months ago

No surprise here, they refuse to learn anything, they would rather see the party burn down then give up control and try to remedy was ails the party in order to maintain control.

Caroline Galwey
Caroline Galwey
4 months ago

It was unwise of her to say out loud what everyone already knew and would make no difference.

David Wildgoose
David Wildgoose
4 months ago

One of the reasons why she would be my choice is precisely that she won’t put up with biased “gotcha!” journalists. The Tories need to choose someone who is a fighter who will fight for Conservative values. Either do that, or hand the crown to Reform.

Dhimmitude Ishere
Dhimmitude Ishere
4 months ago

All the things which the article presents as negatives about KB are positives to me. It’s also about time black Brits had a positive, intelligent and articulate role model rather than a load of perpetually outraged victims or yoofs shouting abusive misogynist lyrics into microphones and pulling at their crotches.