December 9, 2024 - 7:00am

It is easy for the Right to get excited about Keir Starmer’s waning popularity, but the real beneficiaries of the Prime Minister’s troubles might be those to his political left. Part of the story of the 2024 election was Labour struggling against smaller parties in seats it should have won by large margins. With a new report suggesting that this could be a permanent challenge, there’s a real chance Starmer’s struggles could empower the Left next time around.

Polling from Compass has found that nearly twice as many 2024 Labour voters could see themselves switching to the Left rather than the Right. Around half of those who opted for Starmer’s party in the summer said they could drift to the Liberal Democrats or the Greens next time. With Labour holding a large but thinly spread majority, this could be hugely challenging to its chances of a second election victory. Dozens of the party’s seats are vulnerable to its share of the vote, whichever direction it goes.

There was already a sense of this in July. In lots of seats, Labour majorities collapsed despite the party’s overall success. In safe seats, voters surged towards challengers on the Left. The Greens picked up a few seats of their own but also came second in nearly 40, setting the stage for a real fight on the Left next time. In the cities, independents running on pro-Gaza platforms were another challenge to Labour incumbents, breaking the stronghold that the party had enjoyed in those areas. If this momentum continues, it could cause real trouble for the party.

This summer, Starmer benefitted from an overwhelming public anger directed at the Tories. Loyal Conservatives stayed home, while others split to Reform; meanwhile, voters on the Left swung behind Labour to get the Tories out. If any of these dimensions change, the result could look very different. If Labour starts to lose votes to the Left, there are two vulnerabilities — more seats outright flipping to the Greens, Lib Dems or others, or the Left vote splitting and allowing the Tories or Reform to emerge through the middle.

There’s a political sense to this, too. For many on the Left, Starmer’s government already appears hugely unambitious. He and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have largely chosen a pragmatic path: though there have been spending and tax rises, they are not on the scale many of the Left would demand. If Labour fails to make a mark on public services, there could be real calls by 2029 to go further and spend more to plug gaps in the NHS and other parts of the state. Starmer’s caution could easily prompt more economic populism on the Left.

Over the next few years, local contests could form a real proving ground for this. In cities, in particular, there has been little in the way of a challenge to years of Labour dominance. In some councils, Greens and independents are already picking up seats. Should Labour slump, these contests could become interesting, with insurgent parties claiming local authorities or even targeting the major mayoral contests. There’s a chance that 2024 was the start of a noticeably more multipolar politics, with both the Left and the Right beginning to fracture.

First-past-the-post has inured Britons to a largely binary system, according to which one party surges while the other falters. Voter behaviour is pulling away from this now, though, with both Left- and Right-wing voters having more options and more willingness to choose them. In the summer, anti-Tory sentiment was enough to turn this to Labour’s advantage, winning a broad but shallow majority. Next time, the dynamic might work in a mirror image, with Starmer losing ground to both Left and Right. Should that happen, it could lead to a chaotic — and total — realignment in British politics.


John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.

Mr_John_Oxley