UK
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December 9, 2024 - 7:00am
It is easy for the Right to get excited about Keir Starmer’s waning popularity, but the real beneficiaries of the Prime Minister’s troubles might be those to his political left. Part of the story of the 2024 election was Labour struggling against smaller parties in seats it should have won by large margins. With a new report suggesting that this could be a permanent challenge, there’s a real chance Starmer’s struggles could empower the Left next time around.
Polling from Compass has found that nearly twice as many 2024 Labour voters could see themselves switching to the Left rather than the Right. Around half of those who opted for Starmer’s party in the summer said they could drift to the Liberal Democrats or the Greens next time. With Labour holding a large but thinly spread majority, this could be hugely challenging to its chances of a second election victory. Dozens of the party’s seats are vulnerable to its share of the vote, whichever direction it goes.
There was already a sense of this in July. In lots of seats, Labour majorities collapsed despite the party’s overall success. In safe seats, voters surged towards challengers on the Left. The Greens picked up a few seats of their own but also came second in nearly 40, setting the stage for a real fight on the Left next time. In the cities, independents running on pro-Gaza platforms were another challenge to Labour incumbents, breaking the stronghold that the party had enjoyed in those areas. If this momentum continues, it could cause real trouble for the party.
This summer, Starmer benefitted from an overwhelming public anger directed at the Tories. Loyal Conservatives stayed home, while others split to Reform; meanwhile, voters on the Left swung behind Labour to get the Tories out. If any of these dimensions change, the result could look very different. If Labour starts to lose votes to the Left, there are two vulnerabilities — more seats outright flipping to the Greens, Lib Dems or others, or the Left vote splitting and allowing the Tories or Reform to emerge through the middle.
There’s a political sense to this, too. For many on the Left, Starmer’s government already appears hugely unambitious. He and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have largely chosen a pragmatic path: though there have been spending and tax rises, they are not on the scale many of the Left would demand. If Labour fails to make a mark on public services, there could be real calls by 2029 to go further and spend more to plug gaps in the NHS and other parts of the state. Starmer’s caution could easily prompt more economic populism on the Left.
Over the next few years, local contests could form a real proving ground for this. In cities, in particular, there has been little in the way of a challenge to years of Labour dominance. In some councils, Greens and independents are already picking up seats. Should Labour slump, these contests could become interesting, with insurgent parties claiming local authorities or even targeting the major mayoral contests. There’s a chance that 2024 was the start of a noticeably more multipolar politics, with both the Left and the Right beginning to fracture.
First-past-the-post has inured Britons to a largely binary system, according to which one party surges while the other falters. Voter behaviour is pulling away from this now, though, with both Left- and Right-wing voters having more options and more willingness to choose them. In the summer, anti-Tory sentiment was enough to turn this to Labour’s advantage, winning a broad but shallow majority. Next time, the dynamic might work in a mirror image, with Starmer losing ground to both Left and Right. Should that happen, it could lead to a chaotic — and total — realignment in British politics.
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SubscribeI’m sure that some will feel this way but there are many who think that the NHS is just a money pit with no real return for their money. I suspect the number of people looking for ‘value for money’ is only increasing. Which party or coalition can promise to deliver with a straight face?
I had a great experience at UTC today. Same with endoscopy last year.
Without it would have been in trouble on the former as GPs are not staffed appropriately especially with spiraling population due solely to immigration and A&E even worse.
I’d agree that in general the treatment you get is good. But the process of getting that treatment, getting past the doctor’s receptionist, seeing the GP, tests run by the GP, getting your ticket to see a consultant, further tests, unexpected delays and reschedulings all result in a long queue to access that care. The treatment is rationed but the bureaucracy is rife. Where will ‘new money’ be spent?
Agree with the general thrust of the article. But don’t see how this ultimately benefits anyone on the left as their vote fragments. More Green and splinter left (e,g, Corbyn) MPs doesn’t map to more power or influence – more likely the reverse.
Labour only got elected due to a de facto anti-Tory coalition in 2024. It is certain this will fragment at the next election. Short of a Falklands type event fundamentally changing the political landscape, I can’t see any one party becoming dominant. Labour will leak support to every other party (and remember, they’re starting from only 33% vote share). Reform will remain too significant and influential to prevent a Tory resurgence and the Tories too unfocused to achieve one. Disillusionment with the Lib Dems won’t have set in yet and they’ll probably do quite well again (though not through any particular merit). Likely the Greens will win more seats.
Impossible to forecast how this might all translate into a government and what party/coalition would be in charge (in reality the civil service and quangos would still be in charge – they’ll just ignore Starmers’s words last week – and we shall blunder on in much the same rudderless way).
Unwise of course to make such predictions so far out, especially in such a volatile political environment.
Absolutely correct. Starmer had the good sense to purge a lot of the Left from the Labour Party, so it’s on the fringes now.
he purged the tankie left (sort of) but not the identitarian cultural marxist left. He doesn’t know what a woman is – and believes in mass migration. The globalist internationalists are still holding sway. That’s not much of a purge
France currently a good example of the chaos that flows from both further Right and Left playing populist cards. (I used ‘further’ rather than Far deliberately, and by Populist I mean politicians hiding complexity and ‘trade-offs’ from the electorate to gain support).
Starmer’s plight though constantly aided by the Mad Liz example. They’ll be many also waiting to see exactly what Trump really does. It won’t stop some Populist Right and Left seizing opportunities but it may be the electorate gradually grasps there are no simple answers. That will also be aided by the coming reality that Trump’s promises to the ‘little guy’ and ‘left behinds’ will not materialise.
I regret that Liz Truss was not given a chance to show what different policies could achieve. We now have Two Tier Starmer with different (and equally unpopular 2,973,427 signatures) policies. So no benefit then.
Well as Tories, Reform and Liberal together got c14m votes in the GE getting 2.9m to sign a petition now shows vast majority – c11m, of those who didn’t vote Labour couldn’t be arsed to repeat the task of signalling lack of support. And the petition was on line so didn’t even need to put a coat on and walk to the voting booth.
You read too much into it. Folks probably aren’t happy everything can’t be fixed instantly but tiny number think a re-run now the proper thing to do.
As regards Mad Liz, she’d have got the time if she said how she was going to pay for her tax cutting and the markets thought she meant it. She didn’t. And thus furthermore you also can’t have an informed regret as she didn’t say how she was going to do it. You can though have a regret a fairytale didn’t happen
Well, I think you’d have to concede that Starmer hasn’t explained how he’s going to pay for his fantasyland policies, either. Where, for example, is the estimated £100 billion cost of Miliband’s vanity project going to come from? I think we saw from Rayner’s disastrous performance on TV yesterday that none of these people have any more clue what they’re doing than ‘Mad Liz’. 1.5 million houses? Not a chance.
Trump worked well before. That is why he won again.
V debatable and of course he then lost.
But putting that aside, this time he’s a lame duck. In fact much like a new car depreciates the moment you drive it out of a garage his value already diminishing by the day like all 2nd term Presidents. He knows that. The victory was about staying out of prison. He’ll be on the Golf course far more than 1st term as he doesn’t need to be re-elected. He’s mugged folks off for what he wanted. He’ll keep throwing some ‘chum’ into the Sea but little beyond that.
and of course he then lost.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that he didn’t.
The fact you believe those conspiracies and could not point to any evidence that has been believed in multiple court rulings is of no surprise. What free thinking capacity you may have is soaked through with prejudice.
There’s a lot of evidence. And for you to accuse someone else of prejudice is pure projection. Every post you write is riddled with unsupported bias.
France currently a good example of the chaos that flows from both further Right and Left playing populist cards.
Nope, France is actually a good example of what happens when the state becomes so infested by rent-seeking parasitism that it can no longer control its own finances. We’re not far behind.
Piketty’s analysis relied on alot of historic French data, so the basic R>C thesis, on which perhaps a small part of your contention might attach itself, is a point of potential agreement.
Starmer’s Labour Govt will not last to 2029 .. they are already in freefall.
UK govt finances are plunging as the debt will continue to increase and tax revenues will struggle.
Then, of course, there is the Trump challenge, the changes coming will put huge pressure on the UK govt.
There will be turmoil and the #Starmer Govt will not survive until 2029.
However nice the idea of the Starmer Govt. going is how can this be achieved?
The Parliamentary system has nothing other than a vote of no confidence and this would need a huge number of Labour MP’s to vote against their party. I can’t see this happening as they would in many cases be voting themselves out of a job to vote against the Govt.
It wouldn’t be in parliament, it would be Starmer’s approval rating dropping so much that he becomes vulnerable to attacks inside his own party, with someone hoping to topple him and take the throne.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him call a “back me or sack me” GE at some point in the next 18 months.
It’s usually achieved with wide spread civil unrest and a break down of law and order. First that triggers resignations and next motions of no confidence.
It is precisely that that nu britn needs.. a form of Ulster 69: nothing else will get the National Socialists out:
A scenario. – Reeves will run out of money. Getting further money from taxation will prove almost impossible due to Laffer Curve effects and economic destruction caused. Borrowing will prove ruinously expensive, she will have to cut….. The Left won’t let her. Won’t be able to get a budget through. However, I do think that we are, most probably, in for 4&1/2 years of rule by these grossly incompetent socialists.
I’m inclined to put money on a challenge at Conference next year, and one from his MPs the year after…
Developed world is moving to the tails of the political distribution curve, although I think they are less.obviously left and right as historically.defined. Expect the unexpected, strange bedfellows, some chaos, and varying degrees of unrest from multiple actors (including the market) until the replacement system emerges. This will map to digital, whether centralised or decentralised, and the elite/counter-elite battle which will.determine direction of travel is about to go prime time.
Another Unherd article going on about this mysterious Right.
Very strange there is not a single article on what remains of the Conservative party.
Marahall/Gove have a problem here.!
The Spectator has been backing ‘Kemi’ for a while now.
What is (the stupidly titled) Unherd going to do?
Back ‘Kemi’ and it just becomes obvious Gove’s tentacles have reached across into Unherd’s office building?
Or go or ignoring what remains of the Conservative party and just don’t mention it.
I think his main threat is from his own lack of overall vision.
The imposed destruction of Syria is worth considering regarding how fragile the West actually is. The devolution of Syria from a peaceful tolerant multicultural society into a deadly caliphate is an object lesson.
Up to a point. Reform came second to Labour in 89 seats and to the Tories in more than twice that…and at present each of those parties is polling higher than Labour, and I think one poll puts them at over half the electorate between them…
…I can’t see that the Greens have much to sell to the Red Wall or the Farmers, any more than the Lib Dems do…and the pro-Palestine Party has little or no purchase beyond the thirty or so seats where their Co-Religionists live…
…I’m personally inclined to put a pony on Labour support splitting at least three ways…and Farage and Badenoch winding one -another up in public, but making terms in private…
…they both strike me as politicians “who can count”…
Votes to the left, seats to the right.
The could lose 20 to the Gaza Party and maybe a dozen more to the Green Luxury Beliefs No-Jew Party. Maybe half a dozen to Corbyn type ex members.
The LDs are no threat.
The main difference will be if Labour deliver much lower, though still very high, immigration – below 250k – and improve people’s lives. Not sure they can do either without a white swan event.
If they don’t then Tories need the million+ stay at homes to come back out and vote for them. That’s maybe 80 seats from Lab and stand back where Reform are 2nd to Labour. If Reform take 30 seats puts Lab into the 250 realm with Tories on 250 Lib Dems penned back to about 40, Reform same. SNP back to 25-30. Vey splintered.
The simple majority system makes it extremely difficulty for third parties to take seats in anything like proportionate to the votes they receive. This will continue to handicap all of them. Labour’s majority could be greatly reduced and coalition with Greens and/or LibDems as a temporary expedient but the 2-party system reasserts itself before long as in 2010. The most likely scenario is the left staging a leadership challenge to Starmer, perhaps via Raynor.