Additionally, by hitting a luxury residential building, the Kazan attack interfered with Putin’s long-term strategy of maintaining domestic stability by keeping the war far from the cosseted, secure lives of the country’s elites. An attack so far inland might therefore have felt a little too close to home for the Kremlin in more senses than one.

This latest incident is symptomatic of a recent surge of boldness on Ukraine’s part, coming after the assassination of Russian general Igor Kirillov in Moscow last week. That hit, provocative and slickly executed, allowed Ukraine to grab headlines and project an image of strength at a time when Russia is making territorial gains and Kyiv faces the prospect of a deal in which it is poised to lose significant amounts of land.

There are other, more specific reasons as well. Although Ukraine has engaged in targeted killings before, Kirillov was the highest-ranking target yet, his death a warning to other senior Moscow military figures that they may face similar retribution. Yet, underlying this, the simple reason why the Ukrainians killed Kirillov is that they wanted to. Any fear sowed amongst the Russian officer class was a by-product of an abiding thirst for revenge against a man whose order to use banned chemical weapons against Ukrainian servicemen had placed him high on Kyiv’s list of enemies.

With the possibility of negotiations on the horizon, there is now a limited time frame for Kyiv to target key enemies, meaning that we are likely to see more assassinations and other bold, risky moves in the weeks leading up to Donald Trump’s inauguration in the US. Drone attacks function in a similar way to high-profile killings, offering Kyiv opportunities for arresting images that embarrass Russia’s leadership at a low cost. However, there may in fact be a price to pay. Escalation is a clear risk, with Putin previously threatening to target “decision-making centres” in Kyiv with the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory.

Nonetheless, Ukraine’s leadership has shown no signs of desisting from its heightened campaign of drone and irregular warfare. Although not directly referring to the Kazan strike, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed on Saturday: “We will definitely continue to strike at Russian military targets with drones and missiles.”

Putin’s threats were not the only source of news this weekend. On Sunday, Moscow announced the capture of two villages in eastern Ukraine, putting its forces closer to the almost encircled resource hub of Kurakhove. As such, we are likely to see Ukraine leaning more on irregular, headline-grabbing methods of war in the weeks to come. Eager to attack Russia but simultaneously unable to repel Moscow’s gains on the battlefield, Ukraine is looking to wreak havoc however it can and while it still can. However, such tactics come from a position not of strength but of weakness.

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Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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