July 23, 2024 - 8:40pm

Recent media coverage of Kamala Harris has suggested she’s well positioned to win over youth voters. In reality, she’s currently polling below Joe Biden with voters aged 18-34.

The Vice President is losing to Trump 39-58 among voters under 35 in a Quinnipiac poll conducted July 19-21, a larger margin than Biden’s 37-54 deficit. Various other post-debate polls have Harris winning among young voters by three to 16 percentage points compared to Trump, a far cry from Democrats’ historically strong performance in the youth vote. In 2020, for instance, Biden won the under-30 vote against Trump 60-36.

This polling contrasts sharply with a slew of recent articles portraying Harris as the Gen Z favourite, touting an emerging Kamala Harris-centred meme culture, her relatively young age, and an endorsement from pop singer Charli XCX as factors. “Kamala Harris May Have Locked Down The Gen Z Vote With This Pop Star’s Endorsement,” the Huffington Post announced.

The online culture associated with Gen Z is not representative of the generation as a whole. For examples, anti-Israel content has been dominant on TikTok, and the war in Gaza has been top of mind for young activists on social media, but polling indicates that it’s not a top issue for young voters. The war is a top three issue for 20% of young voters, while cost of living and inflation — areas in which Trump polls strongly — are top issues for 70% of this group. Thus speculation that Harris would soften US support for Israel will likely have a minimal impact on the election.

Expectations that Harris will perform well among black voters are also overstated. She’s projected to win this demographic by anywhere from a 59 to 70 percentage point margin, slightly outperforming Biden’s 76-10 dominance over Trump as of the latest Quinnipiac poll. Nonetheless, news articles have been trickling out about a mass movement forming among black women to rally behind Harris.

This new poll paints a troubling picture for Harris, who has quickly become the party favourite to replace Biden on the November ballot. She’s trailing Trump by 19 points in the 18-34 age bracket and by 10 points in the 35-50 bracket, while she’s winning among voters 50 and older. Trump is slightly ahead, but the race is too close to call, according to the pollsters.

That the Democratic ticket did not see a major bump following Biden’s exit from the race indicates that the party’s challenges go beyond Biden’s shortcomings as a candidate, and Harris will have to address the reversal of Democrats’ usual dominance of the youth demographic.

“I love Gen Z. I love Gen Z,” Harris said at a Houston event in late 2023, describing the generation’s resilience in the face of formative life experiences including climate change, Covid and the death of George Floyd. “I’m so excited about who they are, and their leadership, and what they are doing to inspire those of us who’ve been around a little longer.”


is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

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