October 22, 2024 - 7:00pm

Future Coalition PAC, a Republican-led super PAC funded in part by Elon Musk, has been running conflicting adverts targeting Arab and Jewish voters.

In Pennsylvania, the PAC published an ad portraying Kamala Harris as unsupportive of Israel and sympathetic to anti-Israel protesters, saying: “Jewish voters must say, ‘No more.’” But in Michigan, the Future Coalition PAC ran an ad with the opposite message in an apparent effort to dissuade Arab-Americans from supporting the Vice President. “Harris has made herself clear. She stands with Israel and the Jewish people […] Supporters of Free Palestine, they hate her,” it read.

The adverts exploit a tension over Israel within the Democratic Party that could prove pivotal in a particularly key swing state next month. The sizeable Arab population of Michigan has been front of mind for Democrats as the party’s pro-Israel stance brushes up against a voting demographic that favours the Palestinian cause. But the state also has a significant Jewish population, approximately half the size of the Arab cohort, at around 105,000 residents.

Jewish Americans tend to vote Democrat — in Michigan, they’re about twice as likely to identify as Democrats than as Republicans. But in the wake of the 7 October attacks last year, and an increasingly vocal anti-Israel push from progressives, the loyalty of Jewish voters to the Democratic Party may be on the decline.

Harris officially supports Israel, as she did during her 2019 bid for the presidency. However, her critiques of the country’s military actions over the past year place her at odds with Israel’s most fervent supporters. Last year the Vice President said: “Israel has a right to defend itself, and we will remain steadfast in that conviction.” Harris added, however, that the country “must do more to protect innocent civilians”, and that “humanitarian laws must be respected” as “the scale of civilian suffering and the images and videos coming out of Gaza are devastating.”

In her 60 Minutes interview earlier this month, she declined to directly answer a question about whether the US had a close ally in Netanyahu, instead stating, “I think the better question is: do we have an important alliance between the American people and Israeli people? And the answer is yes.”

Her blended approach to Israel is likely to push some Jewish voters away, though the extent of this demographic’s frustration with Democrats has not been tested electorally since 7 October. It’s also likely to upset Arab residents, of whom there are more than 200,000 in Michigan.

The Uncommitted Voter movement urged concerned citizens in Michigan not to vote for Joe Biden in the Democratic primary as a largely symbolic protest against US support for the war in Gaza. The group recently came out against Donald Trump and discouraged voting for third-party candidates, but has not endorsed Harris.

As the war in the Middle East escalates amid Iranian attacks on Israel and the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, there’s little to suggest Arab voters — a substantial portion of whom are Lebanese — will warm to Harris.

Arab and Jewish residents make up a small portion of the Michigan population, a combined 3.5%, though it must be assumed that some are ineligible to vote due to age or legal status. But the race in Michigan is a dead heat. Biden won the state by 2.8 points in 2020, and in 2016 Trump won by only 0.23% — a difference of about 11,000 votes. If a substantial portion of Michigan’s Arab and Jewish voters either stay home in November or vote for Trump, it could well cost Harris the election.


is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

laureldugg