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October 27, 2024 - 12:00pm
After surviving an abortive party revolt this week and with his personal popularity ratings in free fall, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is looking for ways to regain control of the narrative. And he may have just found one in the form of a major policy U-turn pledging to cut the country’s immigration targets. Flanked by immigration minister Marc Miller, Trudeau announced a 21% cut to next year’s permanent resident arrivals, from 500,000 to 395,000. This is to be followed by further cuts to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
The estimated effect of these changes is a 2% decline in the population after roughly three years of exorbitant demographic expansion, during which the country reached a total population of over 40 million, up from 37 million in 2021. These were the largest annual increases since the Baby Boom of the Fifties — the difference being that the vast bulk (97% in 2023) of this growth came from immigration rather than births.
Long touted by Canada’s political and business leaders as a catch-all solution to an ageing population, immigration had been a point of consensus for years. However, the effects of an increasingly permissive approach became too much to ignore, particularly in the areas of housing and labour markets. Trudeau’s announcement was coated with liberal rhetoric affirming Canada’s commitment to ensuring a pro-immigration society. The Prime Minister said “Immigration is our superpower — and always will be.” Nonetheless, he went on to emphasise the pragmatic case for immediate cuts in what seemed like a rare admission of error, conceding: “We didn’t get the balance quite right.” It is an overdue course correction for a botched policy undertaken, in large part, to juice growth numbers and prevent a recession.
The Prime Minister was also quick to castigate the business sector which had “exploit[ed] foreign workers while refusing to hire Canadians for a fair wage”. What’s more, “colleges and universities are bringing in more international students than communities can accommodate, treating them as an expendable means to line their own pockets”. Trudeau is entirely correct in identifying the major interest groups who advocated for these unsustainable numbers. But the question is why his federal government, which is responsible for approving visas — along with the various provincial governments (notably, Doug Ford’s Ontario Tory government), which are responsible for higher education and housing — listened to these lobbies and acquiesced for so long.
Indeed, the same lobbies are now up in arms. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has warned that “decreasing our labour pool will impact employers across Canada struggling to find the workforce they need […]”. An op-ed in the Globe and Mail claims that “Canada is potentially heading for a labour supply decline”. Only now, these same pro-business voices have lost their credibility with the Canadian public: ditto for the Prime Minister, who will likely lose the next election, despite the U-turn.
As to whether cuts themselves will be enough to restore balance to the system — a problem for the next prime minister — everything will depend on whether the estimated 2.36 million temporary visa holders will actually leave the country once their visas expire in the next two years. The polite, conflict-averse Canadian public may not have the stomach to demand that migrants leave the country. Just like his father, holding onto power is Trudeau’s priority — but he won’t want to stick around for the tough decisions and potential acrimony.
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SubscribeI’m beginning to think that some of these people should be put on trial. Surely, purposely, undermining the stability of a country and its people is a crime.
It’s called treason.
I live in Canada, what a mess this government made with their ridiculously high numbers, it was obvious the country could not accommodate those high numbers of immigrants, even the reduced numbers are too high. This caused the worst housing crisis ever, with rents and property prices going through the roof and inflation. We can’t build new housing at those rates, it was never possible. Their agenda driven policies have backfired, the worst government in my lifetime, and we will pay for their incompetence for decades to come, their major success was doubling the national debt in less than 10 years and leaving a fiscal mess for the next government to try to clean up. Not only Trudeau has to go, the failed liberal elites who believe it’s their right to rule need to be defeated in the next election, probably next year. In the meantime they will pretend that they have the immigration mess under control, but it’s hogwash.
Totally agree.
Indeed, they’ll make a lot of announcements, after which everything will keep on just as badly as now. I doubt they’re even interested in how many people have come into the country for various reasons and just stayed, untracked. Hopefully we’ll have an election soon and the whole party will get tossed out on its ear – Trudeau or not, whether or not he’s still around, the entire party’s a disgrace and deserves to be trounced.
Everything you say here applies equally in the UK. Hopefully Trudeau will be the first of many globalist dominos to fall.
Well said! I couldn’t get past his government’s treatment of the Canadian people during lockdowns and then again during the trucker protests. You’re surely right in saying he will leave his successor (probably Poilievre, I’m guessing?) an almighty mess to clear up, and of course he won’t be the one paying for it all.
PS I figured you lived in Canada – the name was a bit of a giveaway 🙂
Watch them smuggle in Mark Carney, and all Poilievre’s work will be for naught.
I am not a one party voter but after Trudeau (whom I voted for once in 2015) I vowed to myself that I would never vote liberal ever again in my lifetime. That’s how much how hate him and his government.
Also, people keep repeating that we need to build more housing, which is true for now, but as if the only error in all this mess was to not have built more housing in advance. In my eyes, that is not the problem. The problem is the growth in population itself. Who wants to live croweded one above the other ? They want to build a 250 apartment complex in my neighboroud. Established citizens are against as it would increase an arleady high trafic situation.
The globalist leaders of the Western nations seem to seek the welfare of any country but their own. Trudeau is a case in point, but not the worst of the lot.
Who is the worst of the lot?
Trudeau’s blatant, epic corruption is only matched by his Canadian word salad blahblah and only surpassed by his disdain of the Canadian people.
So, you don’t like him then?
How can someone not like Canada’s very own Castro?
I am old enough to remember Trudeau Sr as PM. He at least had some style about him. Trudeau Jr always struck me as an entitled preppie.
Justin Trudeau did the impossible, he turned Canadians against immigration!
Never trust Trudeau.
These are photo ops for him.
He might reduce immigration in one area but increase it in another.
Immigration is like any other area of public policy – there has to be a policy. Politicians are terrified of their shadows these days, mainly the media but also business and other vested interests. Politicians have to relearn that being in government is not about being a moderator but about being a decision-maker. All developed economies, including EU Member States, will have to have to limits/quotas for immigrants (with siblings and grannies, etc. excluded) and will have to stick to them. If that annoys the Chamber of Commerce so be it. The CoC is not the Government and will have to accept that some decisions, taken in the national interest, won’t suit business. Finally, the immigrants whose visas have expired won’t leave, not least because of the courts, a growing problem for developed society governments. Citizens of Canada and all developed economies will have to insist that discipline starts now and accept that the illegals already in our countries are not going anywhere.