January 29, 2024 - 10:00am
For years, it seemed as though the SNP must have tapped into that Dorian Gray magic. No matter how badly it governed, no matter how many scandals beset it, the Nationalistsā opinion polling just refused to budge. Was there a haunted painting somewhere, accruing the evidence of the party’s 17 years in office?
If so, someone at SNP HQ must finally have lifted the curtain, for the tide is well and truly going out. At the weekend, Scottish Labour surged to its strongest polling lead over the Nats in 10 years, while the same poll found that a majority of Scots no longer trust Nicola Sturgeon.
These two stories are linked by more than just the general slide in the SNPās ratings. While it was Alex Salmond who led the party through the independence referendum in 2014, it was Sturgeon who turned it into the hegemonic force that we have known for the past decade.
Taking over from her predecessor in the wake of the defeat, Sturgeon oversaw the successful rolling of the Yes campaign into the Nationalist machine. She also projected a new, more explicitly social-democratic vision of the party that was perfectly pitched to disembowel Labour, as the SNP did at the 2015 general election.
For years, Sturgeonās undoubted prowess as a communicator was a shield protecting her party from the corrosion that normally besets any government which has been in office for the best part of two decades.
No longer. If her defeat on the controversial Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) Bill showed that Sturgeon was politically mortal, subsequent events have demolished her reputation.Ā
Voters will not soon forget the pictures of police officers digging up her garden, looking for evidence in a long-running fraud investigation into a missing Ā£600,000 independence fighting fund. Nor their seizure of a luxury motorhome from her mother-in-lawās driveway.
More recently, the Covid inquiry has brutally exposed the secretive methods of the Scottish Government under her leadership, with some bookies even taking bets on how often Sturgeon will obfuscate when questioned. This will be no surprise to those who followed the inquiry into the Scottish Governmentās botched handling of sexual misconduct allegations against Salmond, of course. But as Boris Johnson also discovered, the pandemic is treated a lot more seriously.
All this comes on top of a whole raft of other factors ā most obviously the woeful record of the Scottish Government, but also waning faith on the part of the separatist faithful that independence is happening anytime soon ā to undermine the pillars upon which the SNPās recent hegemony rests.
As it stands, Labour looks set to recapture 20 or more seats in Scotland at the next election. To add insult to injury, it looks like there wonāt even be a repeat of the Conservativesā 1997 wipeout. Even pessimistic polls project them holding a few seats, and some Tory sources suggest they might even make gains in several constituencies where they are best-placed to challenge the Nats.
Weāre a long way from a return to the days when the SNP had only six seats. But even so, such a result would represent a remarkable normalisation of British politics in Scotland, only a few years after many thought the Brexit vote made a second referendum, and Scottish independence, all but inevitable.
The SNP would then have to make a hard choice: go all-in on the fight against Labour in an effort to remain the party Sturgeon built, or pivot Rightwards to try and wrest their old tartan-Tory heartlands back from the Conservatives.
With Labour recovered in Scotland, and the Tories dug in with the most determined anti-independence voters, neither will be an easy road.
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SubscribeUse of the forbidden word: SC*TCH!
As in egg, broth, corner, mist etc etc.
SIN BINNED @ : 11.21 GMT.
Why are the Sc*tch authorities being so SLOW in prosecuting Ms Sturgeon?
As is to be expected a rather nasty āsmellā is beginning develop over this whole sordid affair.
What for?
Wait and see.
The decision to arrest one conspirator (the former SNP treasurer) several weeks ahead of the others (Mr and Mrs Sturgeon) – contrary to conventional practice in conspiracy cases – with the inevitable consequence that when her home was searched not a single computer was found on the premises, shows that Police Scotland are still working hard for wee Nicky.
Yes it does appear that Police Scotland are institutionally incapable of investigating this sordid little matter.
As special Task Force from Scotland Yard should be despatched north with the utmost expediency and Justice served in the proper manner.
The welcome implosion of the SNP is largely due to the antics of Splurgeon and the incompetence of Youseless and his team and they must surely pay a heavy price at the UK general election. But it is not all good news. Support for independence has hardly changed: it is still just under 40%. That 40% could conceivably vote SNP if the SNP ever gets its house in order. This has two consequences. First, we might see a return to the pre-2015 scenario when the SNP used to come second in a lot of constituencies, waiting to capitalize whenever the sitting MP’s party became unpopular. Secondly, the Scottish Parliament voting system with its top-up regional party lists, could yet see the SNP getting a sizeable minority of MSPs.
So let’s enjoy seeing Splurgeon and Youseless squirm, but let’s not get complacent.
Very true. Someone once remarked that the Tories have only two stances on the constitutional issue in Scotland – complacency or panic.
People don’t update their opinions on constitutional issues like that much outside of campaigning periods. That’s one of the things that led to Brexit, the Remainer establishment looked at the 30% support for leaving and thought they couldn’t lose, not realizing that the campaigning process would convince enough people otherwise.
Scottish independence support will remain frozen in time or change only very slowly, up until another IndyRef happens. And then it will probably fall a lot. I say that as someone who wouldn’t care much whether Scotland stays or goes. I just think strategically another indyref would be disastrous for the independence cause.
Decades ago, the SNP was a traditional nationalist party. Things like a strong attachment to history, flag waving and tartan. All so 20th century. This makes up a share of their vote.
Then came Nicola, followed by the Greens, and a pivot to Wokeland. This appeals to an entirely different group. And therein lies the problem. They are two conflicting groups under the same umbrella.
People who take history seriously, that is, things that happened to people like them, might not sit easily with Nicola’s immigration policy, where the Scotland of the future is a mix of cultures from all over the world.
Nicola and Humza are both ‘uncomfortable’ with the word ‘National’. That’s all you need to know.
Indeed. It also confused me that, while they worked toward independence from the UK, they longed to be part of the EU.
One of the reasons why the first independence referendum failed is because Cameron promised the Scottish people that the UK would not leave Europe. And the Scotts voted overwhelmingly to Remain.
Splitters!
So the party that brought about the gender wars and is now run by a guy who’s upset that there are too many white people in charge of things in a predominantly white country is in trouble. Say it ain’t so.
indeed and he would prefer Scotland to be part of a Muslim caliphate.
Fighting talk Aphrodite ! Either way Mr Yousaf needs a decent shave.
The article mentions police officers digging up Nicola Sturgeon’s garden, “looking for evidence in a long-running fraud investigation into a missing Ā£600,000 independence fighting fund”.
Humza Yousaf, her successor, has a brother-in-law who has recently been charged with supplying heroin and being in possession of cocaine and cannabis.
Wherever the SNP leadership go, the police sirens are not far behind.
If Nicolaās garden is going to get dug up, why hasnāt Borisās? He stole billions during the pandemic. The Scottish police were complicit? What other British politician has had forensic tents erected around their home? Sturgeon is a powerful woman. How else was she able to rocket the SNP to enviable heights? Itās interesting that her demise came about though because of a gender recognition bill that questions what a woman is.
High taxes, bad schools,failing NHS, potholes,ferries…I’ll stop there.