16 September 2026 - 1:00pm
As political campaigns enter the post-Labor Day sprint, most polling is telling a clear story: Democrats are poised for a very strong midterm election. Yesterday, two pollsters released surveys reinforcing this story, one from the New York Times/Siena College and the other from YouGov. Both showed Democrats with large leads in the generic congressional ballot. Voters trust them more than Republicans to handle issues including immigration and the economy. The polling also showed that Republicans may be feeling deflated and less likely to turn out, which could imperil GOP candidates everywhere.
Yet, it’s unwise to think the story of this year’s midterms is set in stone. One reason is that the increasingly rosy portrait for Democrats has prompted some debate about polling methods. Last week, VoteHub analyst Zachary Donnini noted that while quantitative forecasts — relying on data — mostly show Democrats gaining over 20 House seats this November, ratings from the qualitative forecasters — measuring a broader range of voter information — are less bullish. Among those, two show Republicans slated for a small net gain in House seats. Just one projects Democrats to make net gains, with a mere four-seat gain.
The chasm between the data-heavy models and the qualitative experts likely hinges on how much weight each gives the polls right now. If the polling is basically accurate — as it has been in recent midterm cycles — Democrats are slated for an extremely successful election. If not, the party could still have a decent election, but it may strike out in races in more conservative places and fail to flip the Senate. So to understand the party’s chances, it’s worth considering other factors beyond the ballot.
There are clear grounds for believing this will be a good midterm for Democrats. Start with the fact that history is on their side: with vanishingly few exceptions, the party out of power almost always makes gains. In every midterm since 2002, the “out-party” has flipped at least one house of Congress. While Democrats’ changing coalition has made it harder for them to win in presidential years, it performs very well in lower-turnout elections comprising more highly engaged voters.
Other factors creating a Democrat-favourable environment include Donald Trump’s unpopularity, poor perceptions of the economy, and an unpopular war. Nate Silver’s polling aggregator shows Trump’s approval rating is just 38.6%, while his net approval on the most important issues — the economy and the cost of living — is poor. Meanwhile, nearly six-in-10 Americans disapprove of the Iran war. Beyond polling, Democratic turnout has been way up in the primary elections.
But there is reason for scepticism about Democrats’ robust standing in the polls. Some polls show Democratic strength in places whose baseline partisanship is strongly Republican. For example, multiple polls have shown Florida Democrats are either competitive or even leading in races for governor, which is an office they haven’t won since 1994, and the Senate — where a democratic socialist is running. Two polls have also shown a competitive Senate race in Arkansas, which voted for Trump by over 30 points in 2024 and which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008.
It’s possible Republicans really are in such trouble that even deep-red states are on the table. But results like this call to mind the 2018 midterms, when Democrats faced a similarly favourable environment, and polling showed them competitive or even ahead in several states Trump had won big. On election day, however, they lost all of them.
Additionally, many polls sample likely voters, or voters whom pollsters believe will actually turn out in November. These samples often look different from all registered voters. The YouGov poll from this week, for example, found an eight-point difference in Democrats’ support among likely voters (+11) versus registered voters (+4).
If pollsters are accurately gauging who is likely to turn out this cycle, Democrats’ strong position makes sense. Much of their strength seems to hinge on the assumption that Republican turnout will be depressed this year. This isn’t unreasonable, but it also isn’t assured. While Democrats lead among likely voters, Republicans have a 21-point lead among those who “probably will vote”. If these voters start tuning in during the final two months of the election and cast a ballot, it could blunt Democrats’ momentum.
The accuracy of these polls will then almost surely come down to Republican turnout. If Trump’s base stays home, Democrats should expect to make massive gains this fall. But if they turn out at even marginally higher rates than pollsters expect, the more cautious forecasts may prove prescient.
