The war in Gaza looks set to escalate, with a new offensive planned for later this month. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly said that this new operation of at least four infantry and armoured divisions, codenamed “Gideon’s Chariots”, would lead to a permanent occupation of territory. In addition, it will assist with Donald Trump’s plan to “voluntarily” evacuate the people of Gaza.

Yesterday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich confirmed that the forthcoming military occupation would be permanent, and that Israeli forces would not withdraw even in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages. However, the die has not yet been cast: the offensive has been delayed until after Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia next week, and some within Israel are depicting the operation as a means to gain leverage to force a possible hostages deal.

There are some reasons to believe that the threats are a bluff, and that the promised “occupation” will not go ahead. Since ground operations began in Gaza on 27 October 2023, the Israelis have deliberately avoided committing to a permanent clearance so as not to become bogged down in an attritional war. Despite his latest rhetoric, Netanyahu is still refusing to commit to a long-term plan for the Strip. This assault could be another short-term tactic to keep his coalition together, avoiding any signal of a break from previous policy or a return to occupying Gaza for the first time since 2005.

On the other hand, the omens are bad. Bibi feels he has now weathered the worst that his domestic opponents can throw at him; he has the support of the far-Right, which is already delighted at the collapse of the ceasefire; and with Trump in the White House, he’ll never have a better opportunity to achieve his “Greater Israel” ambitions and bury the idea of a Palestinian state once and for all.

Netanyahu used to boast that he was the great peacemaker who could keep Israelis safe, noting that he had never started a land invasion or dragged them into a war. But this was three years ago, when preserving Israeli lives was the main consideration. That was a world where he’d trade a thousand Palestinians for just one Israeli soldier. Clearly, that world is gone — and Netanyahu now thinks, probably correctly, that Israel has a greater tolerance for military losses than it did back then.

The withholding of aid since the resumption of the war in March is another example of how the Biden White House was able to exert some restraint, but that restraint from the US is now non-existent. On the domestic front, too, Bibi is unimpaired; back in March 2023, when he moved to fire then-Defence Minister Yoav Gallant due to the latter’s criticism of his judicial reforms, there was such a wave of outrage that he backed down, kept Gallant in position, and paused the reforms. Now Gallant is gone, replaced by a close Netanyahu ally, and the head of the Shin Bet internal security agency is also on the way out.

There is little now to stop the Israeli Prime Minister. Barring a total Hamas capitulation before Trump leaves Saudi Arabia, the reoccupation of Gaza — hard to imagine even a year ago — is very much on the cards.

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