Last year, I predicted that net migration would fall to around 120,000 by 2026 — a forecast widely seen as implausibly low. In reality, the decline is happening faster and more dramatically than almost anyone expected. New Government data suggests net migration will fall far below that level this year and could even turn negative, as tighter immigration rules collide with a sharp and largely overlooked surge in Britons leaving the country.

Net migration figures had to be revised down because of British nationals emigrating at a much higher rate than previously thought. Net migration for the year ending June 2025 had already fallen to 204,000, even before the Government’s recent introduction of tougher immigration laws. Labour’s White Paper from last spring predicted that these restrictions would reduce net migration by 100,000 a year. In reality, the measures are having an even greater impact.

Student and work visa numbers have fallen faster than predicted. Additional restrictions that weren’t in the White Paper have been introduced, with the Refugee Family Reunion and Afghan resettlement schemes closing. The Earned Settlement rules are much stricter than those proposed in the White Paper, with the majority of work visa holders facing a 15-year wait rather than 10. With net migration falling by an additional 100,000 due to the number of graduate visas expiring, 2026 may see negative net migration for the first time since 1992.

Work visas across various sectors have declined in the past year

Average of work visas granted from July 2024-June 2025 and Oct 2025-Dec 2025

Last July, work visa rules were tightened so that only graduate-level jobs and shortage occupations would be eligible. This was expected to reduce the number of visas granted to main applicants and dependents by 46,000 a year. The fall in work visa grants so far suggests a drop of about 58,000 a year. However, dependent numbers may fall even further in 2026. When health and care visa numbers fell sharply in 2023, dependent numbers remained high for a further five months before falling, as many workers wait until they are settled to bring their family.

Meanwhile, January 2026 work visa applications have fallen further because the English language level required has been increased from B1 to B2. One reason work visa grants have fallen faster than expected is because grants for shortage occupations have halved, despite these jobs remaining eligible for a work visa. They have become less appealing due to the ban on dependents, as well as the proposed 15-year wait for settlement.

Student visa grants have sharply declined in the past year

Student visas granted by selected nationality in Q4 2024 and Q4 2025

Tighter sponsor compliance and graduate visa rules announced in the White Paper were expected to reduce international student numbers by 24,000 a year. However, between October and December alone the reduction was 12,830 — a 27% fall — from 2024. This fall is driven by fewer South Asian students, especially Pakistanis. January student visa applications suggest numbers will fall even further in 2026, as universities suspend recruitment from Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Emigration will increase significantly in 2026. However, this trend is being slowed by an increase in the number of visa grants to people already living in Britain, especially partner and worker dependent visas. The most likely explanation is that workers who lost their visa when their employer lost their sponsor license, alongside international students facing tougher work visa rules, are finding other pathways to remain in the country.

In the year ending June 2025, net migration had already fallen 78% from its peak. It will fall much further in 2026 as emigration increases and new immigration restrictions have a larger-than-expected impact. Indeed, the fall is so steep that net migration could even become negative.