August 1, 2024 - 7:00am

Before Yasser Arafat was evacuated from besieged Beirut on 30 August 1982, an Israeli sniper had him in his sights but was refused permission to kill him. Arafat was by then a recognised political leader, and thus enjoyed something much stronger than diplomatic immunity: he was protected by the tacit but absolute rule under which no Arab government has ever tried to assassinate any Israeli political leader and vice versa.

But things are different with Hamas. It has never accepted the legitimacy of Jewish rule over any part of Israel, and so its chiefs could never graduate from terrorists to political leaders. Now one of them — Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Hamas political bureau and the closest thing it had to a prime minister — has discovered the pitfalls of his status. As he returned to an official guest house in Tehran, having attended Tuesday’s swearing-in ceremony for Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian, a very small missile launched by a long-range drone was fired through the window of his suite, destroying it and him, along with a bodyguard.

Exiled in Qatar, Haniyeh could live very safely and in great luxury. That sheikhdom has always accommodated everyone: it pays for Al Jazeera‘s global anti-American propaganda while simultaneously hosting by far the most active US military base in the entire region. It has housed a Mossad office for decades and has steadfastly cooperated with Israel in all manner of ways, at the same time hosting the Hamas leaders.

Haniyeh must also have felt very secure in Tehran, capital of the Islamic Republic of Iran no less. With Arab militias fighting for him from Lebanon to distant Yemen, as well as in Syria and Iraq, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei really is the successor of the emperor Cyrus — though Cyrus restored Jewish rule over Jerusalem and Israel that Khamenei wants to end. This evening, Iran’s Supreme Leader ordered a retaliatory strike against the country he blames for Haniyeh’s assassination. Israel, in his words, has “prepared the ground for a harsh punishment for itself”; it is the “duty” of the Islamic Republic to take revenge.

The last time that happened, Israel intercepted hundreds of its ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles with some help from US, British, French and Jordanian air squadrons, as well as missiles launched by US warships in the Eastern Mediterranean. If Khamenei’s Revolutionary Guards try that again to salvage some credibility by “avenging” Haniyeh, there might not be any allies ready in place to intercept drones, though the Israeli air force can do that well enough and only Israel has ballistic missile defences up and running.

But perhaps Iran’s high command — and its allies — have not considered the threat they still face. These days even schoolboys can operate drones, and the 1,400-kilometre distance from Israel to Tehran is no big deal, but the killing of Haniyeh required much more. To carry out the assassination, there had to be exact knowledge of which room he would be in some eight hours before the drone was sent. This could only have come from people watching the Hamas leader very closely during his visit, who had a good view of his room from across the street.

There is also a warning in this for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, whose group was blamed for an attack over the weekend on the Golan Heights which killed twelve children. Unlike Arafat once he recognised Israel and negotiated with its government, Nasrallah is a rejectionist who denies the legitimacy of Jewish rule. Having witnessed the ease with which Haniyeh was dispatched, he would be wise to tread carefully.


Professor Edward Luttwak is a strategist and historian known for his works on grand strategy, geoeconomics, military history, and international relations.

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