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November 4, 2024 - 10:00am
Iran is reportedly highly likely to launch an attack on Israel in response to the latter’s retaliation against an Iranian ballistic missile attack on its territory last month.
US intelligence services believe that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and commander-in-chief, has directed Iranian commanders to prepare plans for strikes against Israel. These strikes would seemingly involve but not be limited to various Iranian-aligned or allied militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. Khamenei is assessed by the US as believing that Israel’s recent strikes against Hezbollah and Iran’s own missile and air defence networks require him to take robust but risky action in order to restore Iranian deterrent power. Worryingly, it is highly plausible that Iranian strikes will be carried out before Tuesday’s US presidential election.
The remaining question centres on what form Iranian retaliation may take, and how Israel and the US may respond in kind. Reflecting US desire to deter more aggressive Iranian action, the Joe Biden administration has sent additional US military forces to the Middle East. This includes B-52 heavy bombers which have traditionally been deployed as a messaging signal to Tehran that it should avoid escalatory activity. Yet, because Iran’s October strikes against Israel did not meet a direct US military riposte, there are concerns in Washington that Tehran may seek to sow chaos in advance of the election without the commensurate fear that America will impose significant costs for doing so.
There is also concern that the continuing escalation between Israel and Iran is diverting highly precious resources away from contingencies related to China. The US military recently deployed a number of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defence systems to Israel in order to deter further Iranian strikes. These systems are highly capable but also extremely limited in number. If there were an escalation with China over Taiwan or the Philippines, the deployment of THAAD to Israel would significantly limit American combat power. Put simply, the US wants the Israel-Iran escalation resolved as soon as possible.
Extending this concern, Washington has redeployed a carrier strike group out of the Middle East region as a necessary response to ensure that carrier maintenance and deployment schedules remain at least somewhat flexible in relation to future contingencies over China, Russia and North Korea — all of which are exhibiting escalatory activity against the US or its allies.
Ultimately, the US will want any Iranian strike to be limited so that any Israeli response is limited in kind. But with Israel clearly holding the strategic initiative against its nemesis and with Donald Trump recently calling on Israel to take tougher action against Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may decide to truly take the gloves off if Tehran takes any significant action against his country. The fear in Washington is that any ensuing regional escalation may take place amid a condition of US political chaos.
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SubscribeIran is an abscess on the Western World’s behind. It needs to be lanced before sepsis ensues and Israel and indeed Western Civilization die.
Israel is a abscess on the Western World’s behind, it needs to be lanced before sepsis ensues ….
Israel produces innovations used world-wide . Iran nothing the world needs
I would replace “Iran” with the “Islamic theocratic regime.”
Two different things
Hopefully, Israel will resist the restraints imposed upon it by the current U.S. administration and continue to degrade its enemies’ offensive capability. The Western obsession with zero collateral damage and negotiated “peace” is foolish as a general principle but lethal for a country in Israel’s situation. When one considers the missile arsenals accumulated by Israel’s foes for no other purpose than to destroy Jews, the notion that Israel should employ only symbolic retaliation is insane. The exquisitely expensive Israeli missile defense system would be exhausted long before Iran and Hezbollah run out of offensive drones and missiles. Israel must neutralize those arsenals and the infrastructure that builds them or confront a very ugly reality when the barrages of hundreds of incoming missiles and drones are no longer mostly intercepted in the air.
If Israel doesn’t do what the Americans ask of them then the Americans should stop giving them weapons and military aid
The Americans will do what their masters want
And who are their “masters?”
Jews, Dave. Jooooooooos!
Not sure why I’m getting downvoted. I’m just fed up of the ‘nudge nudge wink wink say no more’ from the various Jew haters.
Iran’s attacks against Israel in April, and again in October, were in retaliation for, respectively, a pinpoint attack of Israel against a building adjacent to Iran’s embassy in Damascus, which claimed the life of an Iranian general that was coordinating Hezbollah’s bombardment of Israel, and for the targeted assassination in Tehran of Hamas’s chief (attributed to, but not officially claimed by, Israel). In response to that, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched the two largest missile barrages in history against Israel. But now there is concern that it might “escalate”?
Perhaps the problem is that Israel, restrained by the US administration, hasn’t escalated enough. Perhaps the world should stop being afraid of an Iranian regime that is weak and despised at home, rather than indulging it and enabling it to fund proxies that have ruined whole countries throughout the Middle East and have even managed to block a large percentage of global maritime transport. If this is what a non-nuclear Iranian regime can do, what will happen once it acquires nuclear weapons?
Personally, I’m not worried about Iran/Israel escalating at the moment, American election or no.
While I think that there are factions in both Iran and Israel that want a wider war, the geographical and technological situation just makes escalation too hard. Missiles from Iran have to fly about a thousand miles to get to Israel, during which time they’ve nearly all been shot down by Israel or by buffer states like Jordan. Present technology just favors the defender too much, and the great powers are just too far apart – this isn’t only the case with Iran/Israel but also the United States and its big rivals, Russia and China, or the China/India rivalry – I’ve written at length before a out why these factors make escalation to WWIII not an outcome that I worry about for any of the geopolitical flashpoints:
https://twilightpatriot.substack.com/p/why-im-still-not-worried-about-world
That said, there are still reasons to be worried about Israel’s security long-term. If, for instance, it’s immediate neighbors like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Turkey end up ruled by regimes that share Iran’s mix of high (by ME standards) competency, and hatred for Israel, that would be a serious problem. But Iran on its own – or even Iran plus low-tech proxies like Hezbollah and thr Houthis, are not going to be able to do anything big during the time frame of the present election.
What retaliation? Israel just knocked out all of their radar systems. Iran is naked against any further attacks for quite some time, unless Ayatollah is suicidal.
Apart from the Israeli media claims, I have seen no proof that all of Iran’s radar systems were destroyed
The chances of hitting 100% of their radar systems in one attack is just impossible
Week hasbara man
Israel controls America. The Jewish Lobby calls the shots. Majority of Western media is Jewish owned or controlled. Hollywood is Jewish owned. Wall Street and Investment Bankers are majority Jewish. The White House has a powerful Jewish influence. Interest and Lobby groups are dominated by Jews. Read John Mearsheimer’s book ‘The Jewish Lobby 2007 for a detailed and academic presentation. There are more Jews in USA than Israel. If Israel is wiped off the map it will still exist in America and still call the shots.