In the last 24 hours, Pakistan has vowed to retaliate after India launched a series of strikes on sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Given that these two countries are both nuclear powers, any escalation poses a global risk. That is why Western leaders like Keir Starmer and Donald Trump have urged dialogue and de-escalation.

However, one Nato ally has broken ranks: Turkey. Its Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently issued a statement condemning India for taking “provocative steps” against Pakistan and its civilians. India, of course, denies targeting civilians. But Turkey’s statement is significant in that it supports Pakistan’s call for an independent, “neutral” investigation into the 22 April terror attack in Kashmir — an investigation that India has already rejected.

The larger question is why Turkey is openly siding with Pakistan, particularly when most of the Western world has chosen neutrality. Reports suggest a growing Turkish military presence in the region: a Turkish naval vessel has been spotted in Karachi, and a Turkish Air Force C-130 landed in Pakistan earlier this week — officially for refuelling, according to Ankara.

This is not a new alignment. Ankara and Islamabad have previously signed a deal for the sale of 30 helicopters, and Turkey has assisted Pakistan in setting up a domestic factory to produce Nato-standard artillery shells. Most notably, Turkey recently deployed an advanced anti-submarine warship into Pakistani territorial waters as a gesture of solidarity.

None of these moves is likely to put a smile on Indian PM Narendra Modi’s face. Yet the truth is that Turkey’s ties with Pakistan run deep. Earlier this year, the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fondly talked of the “unshakable spirit of brotherhood” between Turkey and Pakistan, driven largely by a shared belief in Islam. But, Turkey and Pakistan also have a robust defence partnership, collaborating on joint defence programmes, research, and even co-production of military equipment such as drone technology.

Turkey’s support for Pakistan may not directly pose a threat to the West, but it certainly creates tensions between Western nations. That is especially in light of India’s growing strategic relationships with other Nato members like the US and France. India, along with Japan, the US and Australia, is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or QUAD, and France happens to be a major supplier of military hardware to India. In fact, between 2019-23 France supplied 33% of India’s imported arms. Moreover, it has provided India with 36 fighter jets — one of which is reported to have been shot down by Pakistan earlier this week.

Meanwhile, Israel, a non-Nato Western ally, is expressing unequivocal support for India. In response to India’s military escalation, Israel’s Ambassador to India posted on X: “Israel supports India’s right for self defense. Terrorists should know there’s no place to hide from their heinous crimes against the innocent. #OperationSindoor”. India also uses Israeli drones, rifles and guidance technology, which further binds the nations.

Turkey’s open support for Pakistan highlights a growing divergence within the Western alliance — one that reflects deeper cultural, religious, and strategic rifts. As India becomes increasingly aligned with key Western powers like the US, France, and Israel, Turkey’s positioning not only raises questions about Nato unity but also complicates the West’s ability to present a coherent diplomatic front in South Asia. With nuclear tensions rising and global alliances shifting, what we’re witnessing may be less about regional skirmishes and more about a slow but significant realignment of global power blocs.

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