Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attracted headlines with his announcement that two Chinese nationals had been captured while fighting for Russia. Ever the showman, the Ukrainian President informed the media that “the Chinese are fighting on the territory of Ukraine” and teased “information that there are many more than two such Chinese citizens in the occupier’s units”. Kyiv demanded an explanation, summoning China’s chargé d’affaires and criticising Beijing’s “credibility as a responsible member of the UN Security Council”.

The prospect of China sending its forces to aid Russia would be a startling escalation in the conflict, conclusively exposing the lie of Beijing’s “neutrality”. It would constitute a significant step-up from the levels at which Beijing had previously enabled Moscow’s war, namely by buying Russian oil and supplying dual-use components and drones.

It also raises the question of what China’s motivation would be for wading into a foreign conflict, especially this late. Indeed, Chinese scholars have insisted that Beijing felt uneasy regarding the prior entry of North Korean troops, fearing that it could encourage closer cooperation between the US, South Korea and Japan.

This is not the only sign that Kyiv’s brewing row with Beijing is misplaced. Russia has long recruited volunteers and mercenaries from around the world, with Andriy Kovalenko, a member of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, even referring to the captured Chinese fighters as “mercenaries”. Zelensky himself said China may be involved “directly or indirectly”, while UK defence officials admit there is no evidence linking the men to the Chinese government.

The presence of such soldiers is nothing new, with battlefield footage of Chinese troops circulating online. In January, analysts were already discussing recruits from the country, concluding that there was “no evidence of any organised, state-backed Chinese presence”. That same month, a Ukrainian intelligence officer said that China’s contribution amounted to private volunteers and some military attachés. Chinese mercenaries have even shared their stories with the press.

So why is Zelensky raising this issue now — complete with a press conference and calls for international action — when he must have known about these troops before? The answer lies in his ongoing battle not with Russia but with the US. At a time of spiralling trade tensions between America and China, Zelensky is clearly eager to find common ground with US President Donald Trump and spark momentum around a shared cause, tying Kyiv’s struggle to America’s looming trade war. The Ukrainian President knows that China is an issue guaranteed to grab the White House’s attention, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding Russia as a “10-year problem” and China as a “100-year problem”.

This approach may work, to some degree. The US State Department has called the reports “disturbing”. The next logical move, if China has knowingly sent men, would be collective sanctions on military figures and sectoral sanctions, possibly hitting defence firms and those close to Chinese President Xi Jinping. In the current circumstances, Trump will need little excuse to — briefly — dance to Zelensky’s tune by calling out China and threatening penalty measures.

However, any allegiance between Kyiv and Washington on this matter is likely to be born of convenience and short-lived. Two Chinese prisoners of war won’t alter Trump’s fundamental views on Ukraine, and he will not relish the prospect of being so transparently and publicly manipulated.

In 1945, Mao Zedong commented that “we hope for foreign aid but cannot be dependent on it.” Zelensky’s much-vaunted announcement does not in fact herald Russia growing dependent on Chinese manpower or even hoping for it. Rather, it speaks to Zelensky’s own dependence on the White House and his plan to win back some respect from Trump.

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Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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