March 2, 2025 - 8:00am
With all eyes on the three-cornered fight between Labour, the Tories and Reform UK, a fourth force is on the move in British politics.
It’s early days, of course, but the Liberal Democrats are suddenly making progress in the polls. The latest YouGov figures have them up two points to 16%, while More in Common has them up four points, also to 16%. Could it be that Ed Davey’s party is poised for a breakthrough? In last year’s general election, the Lib Dems gained 64 seats — their best result in a hundred years. But that was achieved with a vote share of 12.2%, compared to the 11.6% they managed in 2019. So, on this measure, they didn’t do a whole lot better. Rather, the Tories did a whole lot worse.
So why are the Lib Dems suddenly gaining vote share in 2025? The answer may lie across the pond, where the Canadian Liberal Party has mounted a spectacular recovery in the polls. It’s not hard to discern the reason why: Donald Trump. With their country the target of Trump’s boorish behaviour, Canadian voters are rallying around the maple leaf — and swinging back behind a governing party that represents the opposite of everything he stands for.
As shown by Keir Starmer’s trip to the US this week, the British have been more respectfully treated than the Canadians — so far. Nevertheless, Trump’s policy of siding with Russia against Ukraine has caused widespread dismay. Significantly, of our four biggest parties, the Lib Dems were first to clearly align themselves with British public opinion. As Davey said last Sunday: “shame on Trump for his betrayal of Ukraine.”
No prizes for guessing who’s most in tune with British public opinion. But there are also other issues that could benefit the Lib Dems, including Starmer’s decision to slash the aid budget. Then there’s the prospect of defections by centrist Tory MPs if Kemi Badenoch lurches to the Right — or if she’s deposed for not lurching to the Right. So with both Labour and the Conservatives in deep trouble, the Lib Dems seem well placed to hoover up alienated but anti-populist voters.
One obstacle to further success is competition from other Left-of-centre parties, especially the Greens. A progressive pact might make tactical sense, but that would conflict with the centrist vibe that the Lib Dems need to hold on to their Blue Wall constituencies.
Secondly, the grip they have on the formerly Conservative voters they won in 2024 is tenuous. Analysis from James Breckwoldt of Cardiff University shows that these ex-Tories are very different from other Lib Dem voters. A significant 59% of them voted Leave, 48% support the death penalty, and 72% want tougher prison sentences. Trying to hold on to these defectors while attracting progressive voters from Labour won’t be easy.
Finally, even if the Lib Dem leadership can pull off such a feat of ideological acrobatics, there aren’t many Labour/Lib Dem marginals left in Britain. Of the seats won by the Lib Dems, only two had Labour in second place. And of the 411 Labour seats, only six had the Lib Dems in second place.
The irony of winning increased support from the Left is that it could cost the Lib Dems more seats than they’d gain. The party may imagine itself to be floating above the chaotic mess of contemporary British politics. But, in reality, they’re just as tangled up as their rivals.
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
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SubscribeLib Dems are a shambolic joke. Have been since Charlie Kennedy (maybe even Paddy Ashdown)..
Certainly by the time Brexit rolled around it was clear that they believed in neither liberty nor democracy.
On the one hand, it’s depressing if British voters see hope in the LibDems.
On the other, it’s probably good news for Reform.
Labour and Greens/SNP/Plaid split the angry loony left vote.
Conservatives and LibDems split the wet centrist vote.
Reform collect votes from people who want real change.
Let me clarify something. Disenchanted Conservatives might scorn Reform because it’s ‘populist’ and turn to the LibDems, who spout popular ideas with absolutely no realistic chance of implementation. So, what is populism?
Good question. As I understand it, populism is telling people that the elite who run things have betrayed them. It’s an anti-establishment message, which is all complaints and no solutions.
Analyse any of Farage’s speeches, and you’ll see what I mean.
I suspect the biggest gain in ‘vote share’ is the floating voter. The question is which party can most successfully capture ‘floating votes’, and that will now depend on current events at election time far more than in the past.
“first to clearly align themselves with British public opinion”
I don’t believe that a large chunk of the British electorate came to their pro Ukraine stance without Establishment coaxing. If they had been fed a different narrative they would be supporting another position.
Tend to agree. My position has certainly shifted, mainly over the past few months. It wasn’t that i was following an establishment narrative to begin with but because the political landscape is changing.
Trump isn’t “cosying up to Putin” any more than he’d “cosy up” to a business rival; he’s paying him attention in order to get a peace deal over the line. Zelensky is/was too caught up in his own (understandable) view to see where Trump is coming from; the same applies to this author and the msm in general, but with much less excuse.
Erm no!
Nope!
” Lurches to the right”
Comedy sentence in a bit of a comedy piece.
The Lib Dems could become the main opposition party after the next election. Their big gains in the south east, and west will be consolidated, and as Labour, and the Tories move rightwards, they offer the centre-left alternative and could make many more gains across the country.
Astonishing how many people appreciate watersports. Perhaps I missed something in interpretation.
The great thing about falling off a waterboard, is that no one can ask you awkward questions about your involvement in the Post Office scandal. It was the perfect form of campaigning for Davey!
The LibDems are a protest party. Have been since the second world war. So most likely, they will pinch votes from the other main protest party – Reform.
If the Tories pull themselves together, both Reform and LibDems will suffer.
They were in Power if you remember with the other Liberal Democrat party.. sorry Conservative Party. Remember Vince Cable the business secretary who was so anti Capitalist the Tories got re-elected without those idiots.
When most parties were debating, politics, the Economy, the clown Davey was living out his Action man days as a child. Look if you thought Reeves was a disaster with the Economy, then you ain’t seen nothing yet with the Lib Dumbs. Davey also has a bigger obsession with the EU than Starmer. Another politician that wants someone else to run the Country for them.