February 26 2026 - 7:00am
Today’s Gorton and Denton by-election offers a window into many of the Labour Party’s current political problems. Whether the party retains the seat or not, the coalition of voters that took Keir Starmer to No. 10 is falling apart, exposing deeper fissures within Labour.
The problems begin with the controversy over the selection of a candidate. Andy Burnham, Labour’s most popular politician, was blocked from standing by the Labour National Executive Committee. This revealed Starmer’s strong grasp of the party’s internal apparatus, but also his underlying political weakness among his MPs. Ostensibly, the NEC wanted to avoid a by-election for the Greater Manchester mayoralty. Yet it is obvious that Burnham was blocked because he could easily mount a leadership challenge against Starmer.
The constituency itself poses a structural challenge to Labour. Professor Rob Ford has described Gorton and Denton as a “Frankenstein’s monster” of a constituency. It combines three wards from the previous Manchester Gorton seat, three from the previous Denton and Reddish seat, and Burnage Ward from the Manchester Withington seat. On paper, all of these wards should be Labour, but their underlying demographic bases are vastly different. The Gorton wards are close to majority Muslim; the Denton wards are over 80% white. They both skew working-class in their socioeconomic profile, with some spillover of students and young professionals. The result is an uneasy alliance of Labour supporters who returned the party to Parliament in 2024.
Then there are the problems surrounding Labour’s electoral coalition, which comprises white working-class voters, Muslim working-class voters, and students and young professionals. In this by-election, Reform UK is targeting the first group, and the Green Party is going after the other two. Numerically, the Gorton side of the constituency outnumbers Denton by a ratio of 2:1. In a Labour-Reform fight, then, Labour could cede significant ground to Reform in Denton while mobilizing working-class Muslims and young graduates in Gorton. Under normal circumstances, this is not the kind of seat Reform should win.
The Greens’ vigorous campaigning has complicated this strategy. If the Greens narrowly defeat Labour in the Gorton wards and Reform strongly mobilizes the Denton wards, then Nigel Farage’s party could win. On the other hand, the Greens clearly have a chance at winning this seat outright. Labour has tried to make the point that it is the only party that is competitive in every ward.
Ultimately, though, the Labour message seems much more focused on its opposition than its own record in government. Labour is trying to make voters cast ballots not out of enthusiasm, but to prevent a disliked alternative from winning.
Even if Labour holds Gorton and Denton, it will be a victory offering little comfort. Given its demographic make-up and the history of this area, there should be no question of a Labour defeat. Gorton is one of the most reliably pro-Labour parts of the country. Before its abolition in 2024, Gorton voted Labour at every general election since 1906, with the sole exception of the disastrous 1931 election. Denton and Reddish has existed as a constituency only since 1983, but it voted Labour every single time.
In a fragmented political landscape, Labour may yet prevail. But whatever the outcome, the by-election makes one fact unmistakably clear: the coalition that helped Labour win in 2024 is fragmenting.
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