Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, when running for president in 1992, noted that Bill Clinton was “an unusually good liar”. But Big Dog has met more than his match in California Governor Gavin Newsom, rapidly emerging as a front-runner in some polls in the race for the Democratic nomination in 2028.

Far slicker than the ever-mendacious Donald Trump, Newsom is the new grand master of dissembling. He demonstrated his skill in his final “State of the State” address ahead of the gubernatorial elections later this year. He continued to insist that California was “the beacon” for states looking for an alternative to brutal Trumpism.

As is his wont, Newsom pointed to the huge size of the Golden State’s economy. Due largely to the massive valuation of a handful of established tech companies, and highly inflated real estate, the state does have the world’s fourth-largest GDP, helped by the weak yen in Japan.

Yet if California’s economy is big, it’s not one many Americans would see as exemplary. It displays massive wealth inequality, with roughly half the nation’s homeless population residing in the state. In his speech, the Governor hailed a slight reduction in homelessness as a triumph even though his first pledge to wipe it out — made in 2004 when he was mayor of San Francisco — has long since expired.

Newsom’s California is hardly a beacon for the upwardly mobile, with the highest unemployment rate in the country. It is also the single worst state when it comes to creating jobs that pay above average. In recent years the only jobs created in California were in government-financed healthcare and government itself. He took the time to lambast places like Texas and Florida as being unfair to the poor, yet they seem to be providing more opportunities for the working classes than Newsom’s own state.

The truth is that the common folk, and even some of the rich, are leaving for Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and Florida. More alarming still, migration to California is now, on a per capita basis, lower than that of virtually any state, while the numbers leaving have shot up since 2020.

Housing appears to drive much of this. The Governor claimed progress has been made on fixing the problem but, despite the passage of some 200 new bills, the state suffers from the highest housing prices in the country and the second-lowest homeownership rate (after similarly inegalitarian New York). Newsom’s reforms have been ineffective; the state has among the lowest per capita building permits.

Equally alarming is his failed green energy policy. The state’s electricity rates have surged 80% since 2008, compared to 28% nationwide. Once a major oil producer, it now has the country’s highest energy prices. I doubt voters in Michigan or Pennsylvania yearn for electricity rates twice the national average and the highest gas prices in the continental US.

The Governor rightly praised the state as a “marvel of invention and reinvention”. But today Hollywood is flat on its back while even high tech jobs are growing faster elsewhere, with future jobs heading to places like Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and North Carolina. California may remain a venture capital and start-up hub but increasingly, as they mature, they place their jobs elsewhere.

In his speech, the Governor pretended these issues didn’t exist. “I didn’t hear anything about the budget deficit, I didn’t hear anything about what we’re going to do to grow our economy,” said Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat from Bakersfield who is also running for Congress.

But eventually Newsom will not be able to ignore the pending budget crisis, predicted by the Legislative Analyst Office to hit in 2028. In his presidential drive, he will have trouble explaining the state’s persistent fiscal problems, while Florida and Texas enjoy large budget surpluses, generate more jobs and, in some cases, can afford to initiate tax cuts.

A generally compliant media may minimise these issues, but primary opponents will savour reports, such as one last year from WalletHub, which ranked the state as the least efficient in delivering services relative to tax burden. If analysed objectively, Newsom’s record can be seen as a massive squandering of a great state’s potential. Even as the media salutes him for his anti-Trump stance, voters need to take a closer look at what may happen if, God forbid, the Brylcreem man makes it to the White House.

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Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

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