If Germany’s incoming coalition government, struck between the country’s two longest-serving parties, was supposed to be the beginning of a new era of stability, its politicians don’t seem to have received the memo. Friedrich Merz was expected to begin his term as chancellor today, but an unprecedented move by coalition MPs this morning left him unable to reach the required number of votes. After some back and forth, another vote was held this afternoon which ultimately got Merz over the finish line with 325 votes — nine over the required threshold.

This morning’s events were unique. No German chancellor, from Konrad Adenauer to Olaf Scholz, has ever failed in the first round of voting. Even though Merz was eventually confirmed, the damage has already been done.

Merz’s government was hailed as the true beginning of Germany’s Zeitenwende, (turning point), with ambitious pledges on foreign policy (such as more autonomy from the United States) and rearmament (over €500 million via a special fund). So far, however, it has only achieved distinction by being the least popular government ever to enter office, and now by failing to get its chancellor sworn in at the first attempt.

The CDU/CSU and SPD — the alliance supporting Merz — have a total of 328 MPs in the Bundestag, but only 310 voted for the new chancellor in the first round of voting. This means that 18 MPs from this bloc did not vote for Merz, siding alongside the dreaded Alternative for Germany (AfD) — newly designated as a “Right-wing extremist” party — instead. In an ironic twist, the election of the very chancellor who promised a “firewall” in regards to the AfD has actually weakened the blockade.

Although the vote was secret, it is unlikely that members of the Social Democrats turned against Merz, not least because the SPD drove a hard bargain during coalition negotiations — including a soft stance on mass migration and no true reform of the welfare state. Meanwhile, despite being the senior partner in the coalition, the CDU/CSU abandoned many of the promises it made before the election, including changes to migration and no end to the debt brake. Some parliamentarians clearly haven’t forgotten these broken promises, and have decided to take a stand, even if only a temporary one.

The pushback in today’s first vote might appear purely symbolic, but it is not. Merz now knows that he has at least 18 rebels within his coalition, a significant number which could be the beginning of a revolution from within. Before having spent a single day in the chancellory, Merz finds himself caught between an SPD that will try to drag him to the Left, and a growing faction in his own party which believes that the CDU has already ceded too much room to its Right. The beneficiary here, of course, is the AfD, which is now ahead in the polls.

All of this does not bode well for the new government, which increasingly resembles a lame duck without having even left land. A chancellor who cannot count on his own MPs will not have the necessary clout to make true structural changes. And structural changes are exactly what Germany needs most.

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Ralph Schoellhammer is assistant professor of International Relations at Webster University, Vienna.

Raphfel

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