San Francisco’s shoplifting epidemic is shocking to behold. But we shouldn’t imagine that the same couldn’t happen here. In fact, we’re well on our way. According to the British Retail Consortium, theft from stores across 10 UK cities is up by 26%. More, “incidents of violence and abuse against retail employees have almost doubled on pre-pandemic levels.”

On Tuesday, Asda Chairman Stuart Rose told LBC that “theft is a big issue. It has become decriminalised. It has become minimised. It’s actually just not seen as a crime anymore.”

In the absence of an adequate response from the authorities, retailers are beginning to take defensive measures. For instance, home furnishings company Dunelm is now locking up duvets and pillow cases in cabinets; Waitrose is offering free coffees to police officers to increase their visibility; and Tesco plans to equip staff with body cameras. 

The “progressive” response to this phenomenon isn’t quite as deranged as it is in in the US. Nevertheless, British liberals have responded as expected. A piece in the Observer is typical. You’ll never guess, but apparently it’s all the Tories’ fault: “Starving your population and then ‘cracking down’ on it for nicking baby formula or a can of soup can start to make a government look rather unreasonable.”

But as the writer ought to know, the issue here isn’t the desperate young mum hiding a few groceries in the pram. Nor is it the schoolboy pilfering the occasional bag of sweets. Rather, the real problem is blatant, organised and sometimes violent theft of higher value items. Criminals who never previously thought they could get away with it increasingly now do — thus presenting a material threat to retail as we know it. 

But instead of addressing the issue head-on, the writer blames the victim: “Once goods were kept behind counters, but since the birth of large supermarkets they have been laid out near the door, ready for the taking.” How terribly irresponsible of them! On the other hand, perhaps the open display of goods isn’t just a convenience for customers, but instead the hallmark of a high trust society. 

In fact, modern shops are a minor miracle of civilisation: public spaces, stacked high with products from all over the world, that passing strangers may freely inspect and handle, but which aren’t looted by anyone who feels like it.

Surely, that’s something worth defending. But if you’d prefer to abandon retailers to their fate, then don’t moan when they do what it takes to survive. Some will close, of course, and others will move their operations online. Those who stay open will guard themselves and their stock behind plexiglass and electronic tags. And then there’s the hi-tech solution: the fully automated and completely cashless store, in which customers have to be authenticated to even get in. 

Remember that retail facilities like this already exist. One day, when they become the norm, we’ll remember what shops used to be like. Then, we’ll ask why no one stood up for them.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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As artificial-intelligence startups accumulate record piles of cash, corporate bankruptcies have reportedly reached levels not seen since the Great Recession. The US economy is pulling in two very different directions. This trend could end well, or very badly.

On one side, the emergent AI sector is leading the stock market to record highs and making the tech oligarchs and their investors very rich. Companies and sub-sectors attached to the industry, such as power utilities and chipmakers, are riding the wave and growing fast. The wealthiest Americans are enjoying their newfound riches and spending to support the overall economy. Boosted by such consumption, the US economy remains resilient, suggesting that 2026 will continue to see solid growth.

But on the other side, in the traditional industrial economy of manufacturing, construction, transportation and retail, things are bad and getting worse. Companies are going to the wall, layoffs are rising, wage growth is slowing, and inflation is eating into people’s earnings. This unpleasant combination has left working Americans feeling worse off and pessimistic about the future. With consumer confidence extending its year-long decline, the omens from this everyday economy suggest a recession is coming in the new year.

In short, while sections of the country feel the boom times have arrived, much of the economy is already in recession. Yet, although these two Americas look very different from one another, they are in fact closely linked. That’s because the AI economy is, in no small part, thriving by cannibalising the traditional economy.

Investment in the sector is soaring largely because it’s sucking capital from everyone else, with overall capital expenditure consequently flat for the rest of the economy. Inflation, though stubborn, is nonetheless being kept under control because lower-income Americans are tightening their belts, and the margins of tariff-hit manufacturers and importers are getting squeezed. Meanwhile, demand for credit is keeping interest rates from falling. While the tech giants are able to sell bonds at discount rates, smaller firms and cash-strapped consumers are struggling to make their payments.

The Trump administration’s policies have further exacerbated this chasm, as the White House goes all in on its tech bet. Tariffs have hit many traditional producers, while the exemptions on offer tend to benefit tech firms disproportionately. And, despite rising public anxiety about the impact of AI, the administration has pushed an aggressively deregulatory agenda, giving tech companies free rein to operate and take risks — even, possibly, with the lives of their users.

This divergence between America’s two economies is unlikely to last, though. Sooner or later, the twain shall meet, and whichever one prevails will determine the course of the US economy — and in no small measure the world economy. If there are big breakthroughs in AI and general-purpose innovations that can raise productivity begin to appear, then those bankruptcies will turn out to be the normal churn of an economy in the active throes of creative destruction. As these innovations fan throughout the economy, they will put it on a sustainable growth path.

If, however, AI fails to deliver on its promise and the boom turns to a bust, wealthier Americans who see their riches plunge will join their less fortunate compatriots in cutting costs. Equally, if public concern over AI leads to a rise of anti-oligarchic populism in the 2026 midterm elections, the benefits the administration has delivered to tech bosses may come to a sudden end. Everything comes down to whether the AI revolution is real or hype, and the answer to that will determine whether America sinks or soars.

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John Rapley is an author and academic who divides his time between London, Johannesburg and Ottawa. His books include Why Empires Fall: Rome, America and the Future of the West (with Peter Heather, Penguin, 2023) and Twilight of the Money Gods: Economics as a Religion (Simon & Schuster, 2017).

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