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For his own good, Boris should make a strategic retreat

It's time for Boris to beat a retreat. Credit: Getty

June 1, 2023 - 7:00am

It is now more than 10 months since Boris Johnson resigned as Prime Minister — and yet he keeps fighting. Though there are six other living ex-PMs, none has caused more trouble than Boris and his band of Tory outlaws.

In the last fortnight alone, we’ve had multiple Boris-related stories — including the farcical WhatsApp saga, attacks on Oliver Dowden, the Johnsons’ plush new home in Oxfordshire and yet another Boris baby. It just never stops.

But, perhaps, for his own good, it ought to. This is not meant to be a menace-laden message of faux-concern. Rather, I’m recognising that, of all our former PMs, Boris is the only one with a realistic chance of regaining the top job. He needs to improve his odds, though.

His number one problem is holding on to his seat. The Privileges Committee is due to report on whether he misled Parliament over Partygate. If they conclude that he did — and recommend a sufficiently harsh punishment — then that could trigger a sequence of events leading to a by-election in his constituency. His chances of surviving such a process are slim.

But even if Johnson swerves that hazard, he’s still got the next general election to get through. Without a major revival in Tory fortunes, his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency (majority: 7,210) is toast. He could attempt a chicken-run to a safer seat (Henley has been mentioned), but I doubt that the current leadership would allow that.

Still, let’s assume that he’s an MP for somewhere at the start of the next parliament. Most likely the Tories will be out of power and looking for a new leader — which in theory could be his comeback opportunity. Except that, as William Hague found out after the last Tory general election meltdown, it would be a horrible job — a constant struggle to save the party from civil war and bankruptcy.

Luckily for Boris, there’s an alternative path. Rather than trying to fight the verdict of the Privileges Committee, he should accept any criticism. Indeed, he should express his contrition by resigning his seat. Of all the humiliating scenarios that face him, this would be the least worst.

Of course, this would delight Downing Street — yet that too would be to Johnson’s ultimate advantage. The fewer fingerprints he can leave on the next election result — and the recriminations that follow — the better it will be for him.

Out of Parliament, he’d be able to concentrate on his lucrative speech-giving gigs. He could also persuade his wealthier supporters to fund a think tank — perhaps fleshing out the levelling-up agenda he never quite got round to in government. In any case, after two or three years in opposition the party would be desperate for fresh ideas.

Most importantly, Johnson would be free to look for a safe seat. For instance, if a defeated Rishi Sunak decides that life looks sunnier in California, Boris could pick up the reins in Richmond, Yorkshire. Like Michael Portillo in 1999, he’d make his triumphant return to Westminster and angle for the leadership.

Of course, pulling this off would require uncharacteristic discipline. But then that’s just one of things he’ll have to demonstrate before he’s ever trusted again.


Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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Janko M
Janko M
1 year ago

Why would anyone want BoJo back in power? The man is a shallow character covered up by a boisterous and arrogant façade, but with no substance behind it. The amount of ink spilled on BoJo vastly exceeds in proportion of his stature.

Simon Denis
Simon Denis
1 year ago
Reply to  Janko M

Spot on. He’s a nobody in search of a mask. Unfortunately the depth of his craving spurred him to seek the biggest mask of all – that of the “great leader”. Only a few groupies and fools now deny this. To the rest of us he has been finally, devastatingly and damningly exposed.

Simon Denis
Simon Denis
1 year ago
Reply to  Janko M

Spot on. He’s a nobody in search of a mask. Unfortunately the depth of his craving spurred him to seek the biggest mask of all – that of the “great leader”. Only a few groupies and fools now deny this. To the rest of us he has been finally, devastatingly and damningly exposed.

Janko M
Janko M
1 year ago

Why would anyone want BoJo back in power? The man is a shallow character covered up by a boisterous and arrogant façade, but with no substance behind it. The amount of ink spilled on BoJo vastly exceeds in proportion of his stature.

Geoff Wilkes
Geoff Wilkes
1 year ago

He’s too lazy to do the job properly, it doesn’t pay the kind of money he spends, and only an idiot would vote for him anyway.
But I don’t expect the stream of “Can Boris Make a Come-Back?” stories to run dry until at least the election after next.

Last edited 1 year ago by Geoff Wilkes
Geoff Wilkes
Geoff Wilkes
1 year ago

He’s too lazy to do the job properly, it doesn’t pay the kind of money he spends, and only an idiot would vote for him anyway.
But I don’t expect the stream of “Can Boris Make a Come-Back?” stories to run dry until at least the election after next.

Last edited 1 year ago by Geoff Wilkes
R Cope
R Cope
1 year ago

In a properly run democracy, someone as corrupt and useless as Johnson wouldn’t be able to stand as an MP, never mind consider a run as party leader and potentially PM. How flawed is our political system that anyone can seriously consider that he could?

Johnson is the epitome of the sad state of public life where there is no responsibility for mistakes, and people continually fail upwards.

R Cope
R Cope
1 year ago

In a properly run democracy, someone as corrupt and useless as Johnson wouldn’t be able to stand as an MP, never mind consider a run as party leader and potentially PM. How flawed is our political system that anyone can seriously consider that he could?

Johnson is the epitome of the sad state of public life where there is no responsibility for mistakes, and people continually fail upwards.

R H van der Gaag
R H van der Gaag
1 year ago

Why bother? The talentless clown has claimed quite enough of our time and attention.

R H van der Gaag
R H van der Gaag
1 year ago

Why bother? The talentless clown has claimed quite enough of our time and attention.

Andy Iddon
Andy Iddon
1 year ago

He’s a totally discredited liar – no way back

Andy Iddon
Andy Iddon
1 year ago

He’s a totally discredited liar – no way back

Venerabledom
Venerabledom
1 year ago

He’s the walking embodiment of everything that’s rotten in it political system. His list of failings and actions, any of which should preclude him from being anywhere near power, are long and damning.
The continued debate about his possible return merely highlights the utter lack of talent the Tory Stalinist cull of the ideologically suspect on Brexit has left the party.

Venerabledom
Venerabledom
1 year ago

He’s the walking embodiment of everything that’s rotten in it political system. His list of failings and actions, any of which should preclude him from being anywhere near power, are long and damning.
The continued debate about his possible return merely highlights the utter lack of talent the Tory Stalinist cull of the ideologically suspect on Brexit has left the party.

Stephen Walsh
Stephen Walsh
1 year ago

There will be no comeback. He has no interest in being leader of the opposition. Johnson was politically finished when he called for a “national conversation” around mandatory vaccinations. If he represented anything, it was the opposite of that. Boris just turned out to be cut from the same shabby cloth as Stanley, Jo and Rachel.

Stephen Walsh
Stephen Walsh
1 year ago

There will be no comeback. He has no interest in being leader of the opposition. Johnson was politically finished when he called for a “national conversation” around mandatory vaccinations. If he represented anything, it was the opposite of that. Boris just turned out to be cut from the same shabby cloth as Stanley, Jo and Rachel.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago

Napoleon famously said “I’d rather have lucky generals than good ones” and Boris Johnson has always been a lucky general. An interesting study recently found that Tory voters in the fabled ‘Red Wall’ gave the reasons for putting their X next to Conservative as: 42% because of Corbyn, 43% Brexit, 28% because of Johnson. In London, he won as mayor against Ken Livingstone both times, a deeply tarnished candidate. So the idea that he is uniquely popular rather than being against deeply unpopular opponents doesn’t entirely stand up.

So could he get lucky again? It’s worth remembering that he was booted out because of a stream of resignations by ministers, from across the spectrum, leaving himself unable to form a government. He was seen as a liability, after three safe seats had been lost and his personal poll ratings were dire.

When Johnson was chosen as Tory leader everyone in politics and the media knew who he was; idle, incompetent, narcissistic and motivated entirely by self-interest, without even a passing acquaintanceship with the truth. By the end of his time in office so did the public. Some may overlook his character defects in any future election, many probably won’t.

Younger voters are already repelled by the Conservatives, and the return of Johnson is not going to change that, quite the reverse.

I think a defeat in the election next year will more likely lead to a National Conservative/ culture war candidate, maybe Suella Braverman, already disliked by large sections of the public, and years in the wilderness, but they may turn to Johnson in extremis, but it’s wishful thinking to assume that will revive their fortunes. Like Leeds with Sam Allardyce, yesterday’s man is never the best solution.

Dumetrius
Dumetrius
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

David Cameron was always a lucky general.

Right up until the day he wasn’t.

Last edited 1 year ago by Dumetrius
Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  Dumetrius

As Mike Tyson said:
“Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face.”

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  Dumetrius

But he (Cameron) wasn’t. Should have won outright in 2010, but failed.
Johnson really was lucky. I’d like to call up that Gary Player quote: “People always said I was lucky. But the funny thing is, the harder I practiced, the luckier I got”. Except that it’s not clear exactly what it was Boris practiced !
But Johnson’s key attributes were his astonishing luck and his uncanny ability to bring out the worst in his opponents (the so-called Boris Derangement Syndrome – of which there are echoes in some of the comments here).

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  Dumetrius

As Mike Tyson said:
“Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face.”

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  Dumetrius

But he (Cameron) wasn’t. Should have won outright in 2010, but failed.
Johnson really was lucky. I’d like to call up that Gary Player quote: “People always said I was lucky. But the funny thing is, the harder I practiced, the luckier I got”. Except that it’s not clear exactly what it was Boris practiced !
But Johnson’s key attributes were his astonishing luck and his uncanny ability to bring out the worst in his opponents (the so-called Boris Derangement Syndrome – of which there are echoes in some of the comments here).

Dumetrius
Dumetrius
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

David Cameron was always a lucky general.

Right up until the day he wasn’t.

Last edited 1 year ago by Dumetrius
John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago

Napoleon famously said “I’d rather have lucky generals than good ones” and Boris Johnson has always been a lucky general. An interesting study recently found that Tory voters in the fabled ‘Red Wall’ gave the reasons for putting their X next to Conservative as: 42% because of Corbyn, 43% Brexit, 28% because of Johnson. In London, he won as mayor against Ken Livingstone both times, a deeply tarnished candidate. So the idea that he is uniquely popular rather than being against deeply unpopular opponents doesn’t entirely stand up.

So could he get lucky again? It’s worth remembering that he was booted out because of a stream of resignations by ministers, from across the spectrum, leaving himself unable to form a government. He was seen as a liability, after three safe seats had been lost and his personal poll ratings were dire.

When Johnson was chosen as Tory leader everyone in politics and the media knew who he was; idle, incompetent, narcissistic and motivated entirely by self-interest, without even a passing acquaintanceship with the truth. By the end of his time in office so did the public. Some may overlook his character defects in any future election, many probably won’t.

Younger voters are already repelled by the Conservatives, and the return of Johnson is not going to change that, quite the reverse.

I think a defeat in the election next year will more likely lead to a National Conservative/ culture war candidate, maybe Suella Braverman, already disliked by large sections of the public, and years in the wilderness, but they may turn to Johnson in extremis, but it’s wishful thinking to assume that will revive their fortunes. Like Leeds with Sam Allardyce, yesterday’s man is never the best solution.

James Kirk
James Kirk
1 year ago

Regardless of what people think of Boris he has hardly been replaced by a charismatic competent leader. The even worse threat is Starmer who, while probably not a lazy narcissist, clearly lies all the time. He is a fraud, an early Trot, who could equally aspire to the modern Tory leadership, such are his dual standards and lack of any connection with traditional Labour. More Davos than Westminster, he said so himself.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  James Kirk

I doubt many dissolutioned conservatives would support the duplicitous Max Headroom or vote Labour.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  James Kirk

NT

Last edited 1 year ago by Stoater D
Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  James Kirk

I doubt many dissolutioned conservatives would support the duplicitous Max Headroom or vote Labour.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  James Kirk

NT

Last edited 1 year ago by Stoater D
James Kirk
James Kirk
1 year ago

Regardless of what people think of Boris he has hardly been replaced by a charismatic competent leader. The even worse threat is Starmer who, while probably not a lazy narcissist, clearly lies all the time. He is a fraud, an early Trot, who could equally aspire to the modern Tory leadership, such are his dual standards and lack of any connection with traditional Labour. More Davos than Westminster, he said so himself.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago

The reaction already in comments suggests v little appetite likely for a Bojo Mk2.
Perhaps the question folks who supported and championed Mk1 need to ask is – why didn’t I see him for what he was before, as it was v evident to many others already, and even conveyed by his prior Bosses? The question reframed – did you get mugged off by rhetoric and lies and what’s that telling you about your own confirmatory bias?

Stephen Walsh
Stephen Walsh
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

It was nothing in what any of those people said about Johnson – most particularly his former bosses – which ultimately made Johnson unpopular. Quite the opposite. It was the fact that he turned out to be just like them.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Stephen Walsh

Who’d you mean SW?
His former boss, Max Hastings, flagged his complete self interest and willingness to repeatedly lie. Also amusingly he highlighted that whilst Bojo liked to see himself as some modern day Churchill figure he was much more akin to Alan Partridge! Simon Jenkins made similar points. Bojo’s private life and behaviour also always going to be indicative of how he then behaved in office. All this known for years. The worst PM consequentially in the last 100yrs. Entirely predictable.
Anyone waking up to this late needs to also be looking at themselves with some shame. It wasn’t that it was unknowable, it was that folks chose to ignore it because he was saying and confirming what they wanted to hear.

Stephen Walsh
Stephen Walsh
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

I hope you’ll forgive me if I decline to take guidance from either of those gentlemen, given their track records. Johnson seemed to find it embarrassing to push back on any element of progressivism, “there’s nothing wrong with being Woke”. That was his downfall. He is called a liar. But when Starmer promises that there is a path to prosperity through higher energy costs and a ban on oil and gas development in the North Sea that is apparently not a lie. The enmity displayed in respect of Johnson’s character flaws seems rather selective.

polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago
Reply to  Stephen Walsh

“The enmity displayed in respect of Johnson’s character flaws seems rather selective”
Not to mention, confected.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

You may want to reflect on why the Parliamentary Party ditched Johnson. They knew about his character but the three safe seats they’d just lost, and Johnson’s popularity ratings, indicated that the public had also seen through him, so he had become a liability. He had become a vote loser.

polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Perhaps I gave the wrong impression (I wouldn’t vote for that shower if they elected Caligula’s Horse to the leadersnip of the party). I was merely observing that his flaws are unexcetional.

polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Perhaps I gave the wrong impression (I wouldn’t vote for that shower if they elected Caligula’s Horse to the leadersnip of the party). I was merely observing that his flaws are unexcetional.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  polidori redux

You may want to reflect on why the Parliamentary Party ditched Johnson. They knew about his character but the three safe seats they’d just lost, and Johnson’s popularity ratings, indicated that the public had also seen through him, so he had become a liability. He had become a vote loser.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Stephen Walsh

Deflection away from feelings of guilt re: supporting Bojo not unexpected. It’s a rare person who honestly goes – ‘I was conned and fell for it when really all the warning signs were there’
As regards Starmer – at the moment we don’t know what the gap between rhetoric and delivery will be. We may find out, but he won’t come into the job (if he gets it) with anything like the track record in previous roles Bojo had. Or in how one conducts one’s private life. Character matters and one suspects for all his weaknesses folks know Starmer has nothing like the character defects of a Bojo.

Ethniciodo Rodenydo
Ethniciodo Rodenydo
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

What about is record as DPP?

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

What guilt ? What on earth are you on about ?
People had two choices in 2019:
Bad: Boris Johnson
Worse: Jeremy Corbyn (probably with a free helping of Nicola Sturgeon)
Anyone who preferred “bad” to “worse” should be thanked.
Everyone know Boris Johnson’s faults in 2019. They voted for him anyway. Go on insulting the intelligence of the voters if you insist. Didn’t work too well for Emily Thornberry though.

Ethniciodo Rodenydo
Ethniciodo Rodenydo
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

What about is record as DPP?

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

What guilt ? What on earth are you on about ?
People had two choices in 2019:
Bad: Boris Johnson
Worse: Jeremy Corbyn (probably with a free helping of Nicola Sturgeon)
Anyone who preferred “bad” to “worse” should be thanked.
Everyone know Boris Johnson’s faults in 2019. They voted for him anyway. Go on insulting the intelligence of the voters if you insist. Didn’t work too well for Emily Thornberry though.

polidori redux
polidori redux
1 year ago
Reply to  Stephen Walsh

“The enmity displayed in respect of Johnson’s character flaws seems rather selective”
Not to mention, confected.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Stephen Walsh

Deflection away from feelings of guilt re: supporting Bojo not unexpected. It’s a rare person who honestly goes – ‘I was conned and fell for it when really all the warning signs were there’
As regards Starmer – at the moment we don’t know what the gap between rhetoric and delivery will be. We may find out, but he won’t come into the job (if he gets it) with anything like the track record in previous roles Bojo had. Or in how one conducts one’s private life. Character matters and one suspects for all his weaknesses folks know Starmer has nothing like the character defects of a Bojo.

Stephen Walsh
Stephen Walsh
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

I hope you’ll forgive me if I decline to take guidance from either of those gentlemen, given their track records. Johnson seemed to find it embarrassing to push back on any element of progressivism, “there’s nothing wrong with being Woke”. That was his downfall. He is called a liar. But when Starmer promises that there is a path to prosperity through higher energy costs and a ban on oil and gas development in the North Sea that is apparently not a lie. The enmity displayed in respect of Johnson’s character flaws seems rather selective.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Stephen Walsh

Who’d you mean SW?
His former boss, Max Hastings, flagged his complete self interest and willingness to repeatedly lie. Also amusingly he highlighted that whilst Bojo liked to see himself as some modern day Churchill figure he was much more akin to Alan Partridge! Simon Jenkins made similar points. Bojo’s private life and behaviour also always going to be indicative of how he then behaved in office. All this known for years. The worst PM consequentially in the last 100yrs. Entirely predictable.
Anyone waking up to this late needs to also be looking at themselves with some shame. It wasn’t that it was unknowable, it was that folks chose to ignore it because he was saying and confirming what they wanted to hear.

Mike Doyle
Mike Doyle
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

If all the other potential leaders are vichy wannabees, you go with the one that isn’t, no matter what his flaws might be.

Steve Murray
Steve Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

The answer is blindingly obvious, although i suspect not to your taste. He was (rightly) seen as the only politician with the chutzpah to see off the challenges to the Brexit referendum – which he did and which will always stand in the history books.
The rest, as they say, is also history.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

‘Chutzpah – extreme self confidence & audacity’. Hmm certainly a bit of the latter, but he never had great confidence in the project. As well known he only swung that way for self interested political reasons. The bluster balloons he’d launched were always going to deflate.
And the issue also for Brexiteers was what one then did with it. Trusting a Bojo to then show it’s true value deeply flawed. Evidence all before us.
I daresay the numbers now quietly distancing themselves from Bojo only just a little ahead of similar sentiment re:Brexit, but the latter catching up.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

Although of course Brexit, or at least the Brexit Johnson delivered, is increasingly seen as having failed to deliver on the promises made in the referendum campaign, and Johnson as having lied about the potential benefits so it’s debatable what the history books will actually say in any positive way.

Steve Murray
Steve Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Opinions will vary, but they’ll state the facts: Johnson upheld the referendum result. You speak as if other politicians provide manifestos which are followed to the letter.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

I’m merely pointing out that Bregrit is a thing, as polls consistently show. As to the result, it depends on whether you think the result reflects what the people were promised would be the outcomes if they voted Leave. As the Brexit that Johnson delivered didn’t remotely reflect those outcomes it’s a bit rich to talk about ‘manifestos’ which no one really pays much attention to, and also offers redress in the form of another election if they’re not met.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

That he did, but it could have been done in a much less damaging way. Deciding to go for a Hard Brexit was not decided by referenda, but by what transpires to be quite a small elite of hardline Brexiteers and their supporters.
In fact one could argue quite strongly that had we gone Norway/Swiss we’d have had best of both worlds, we’d have wasted less time and energy and moved on.
Just read Larry Summers latest interview – :’historical economic error’ – and he’s not exactly a rabid Marxist. And then still got the Govt release on spike in immigration up 3 times pre-Brexit albeit not driven from EU but from countries where to the Brexiteer delight the culture will not be as western. In fact Bojo the one who pushed for more Visas for families of students. Nige got a point hasn’t he.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

I’m merely pointing out that Bregrit is a thing, as polls consistently show. As to the result, it depends on whether you think the result reflects what the people were promised would be the outcomes if they voted Leave. As the Brexit that Johnson delivered didn’t remotely reflect those outcomes it’s a bit rich to talk about ‘manifestos’ which no one really pays much attention to, and also offers redress in the form of another election if they’re not met.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

That he did, but it could have been done in a much less damaging way. Deciding to go for a Hard Brexit was not decided by referenda, but by what transpires to be quite a small elite of hardline Brexiteers and their supporters.
In fact one could argue quite strongly that had we gone Norway/Swiss we’d have had best of both worlds, we’d have wasted less time and energy and moved on.
Just read Larry Summers latest interview – :’historical economic error’ – and he’s not exactly a rabid Marxist. And then still got the Govt release on spike in immigration up 3 times pre-Brexit albeit not driven from EU but from countries where to the Brexiteer delight the culture will not be as western. In fact Bojo the one who pushed for more Visas for families of students. Nige got a point hasn’t he.

Steve Murray
Steve Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Opinions will vary, but they’ll state the facts: Johnson upheld the referendum result. You speak as if other politicians provide manifestos which are followed to the letter.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

‘Chutzpah – extreme self confidence & audacity’. Hmm certainly a bit of the latter, but he never had great confidence in the project. As well known he only swung that way for self interested political reasons. The bluster balloons he’d launched were always going to deflate.
And the issue also for Brexiteers was what one then did with it. Trusting a Bojo to then show it’s true value deeply flawed. Evidence all before us.
I daresay the numbers now quietly distancing themselves from Bojo only just a little ahead of similar sentiment re:Brexit, but the latter catching up.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

Although of course Brexit, or at least the Brexit Johnson delivered, is increasingly seen as having failed to deliver on the promises made in the referendum campaign, and Johnson as having lied about the potential benefits so it’s debatable what the history books will actually say in any positive way.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

Totally missing the point JW !!!
Most people who voted for him in 2019 understood perfectly well what he was like, held their noses and did what they had to do. Please don’t imagine there was any pleasure in doing so.
But there was a job that needed doing in 2019 and only one man with any prospect of getting it done (however imperfectly). Never forget that it was the incompetence and stupidity of many other people that created the conditions for Johnson to win in 2019. Theresa May’s high up that list. So are Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon. But so are Keir Starmer and Gina Miller – everything they did ultimately backfired on them.
So your question is irrelevant.
Isn’t it just incredible that 7 years after the EU referendum, some remain supporters still don’t understand why people voted to leave and always try to lump everyone who voted for something together as having the same motives ? Does that tell you anything about your own confirmatory bias ?

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

It’s worth reminding ourselves what people were actually asked to vote for in 2015/16. The proposition from the Leave campaign had two components.

Take Back Control: this was essentially neutral, the idea that, free of the EU, we could design our own laws to suit ourselves, on the environment, animal welfare, employment protections etc, with the claim that we would end up with better laws. And immigration, and it’s also worth remembering even Nigel Farage talked of any Australian style points system, which we have effectively ended up with, and Daniel Hannan said straight after the result that it didn’t necessarily mean lower immigration.

Economic Benefits: we were told that we held all the cards in the negotiations so would get a deal which combined all the benefits with none of the obligations, we would then cement massively beneficial trade deals with the US among other countries. This would all turbocharge growth, creating a high wage-high skill economy. The problem here was it assumed that the other 27 countries, who don’t like each other that much, but stay together for the advantage it gives them in collective bargaining wouldn’t use that power in the Brexit negotiations. It also assumed that neither the EU, or other countries, would follow Rule 101 of negotiations; you always, always negotiate in your own self interest. In addition, we would end up with more money to spend on public services.

In the event, once the referendum was won the right wing of the Tory Party pushed for the Hard Brexit that we ended up with. Economically damaging, and with ‘taking back control’ not exactly what everyone expected.

Now that we’ve left there are no longer Leavers and Remainers because the outcomes of Brexit belongs to everyone, regardless of how anyone voted in 2016. There were a lot of different reasons people voted to leave, but the feeling that the economy, the country, no longer offered anything to them or the community was strong among those I personally know, and many who felt that then feel it even more today.

If we want Brexit to work in any positive way we need to accept it’s not delivered the promised benefits and agree a way forward free from the old divisions.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

So what ?
The article is about Boris Johnson’s plans. Not Brexit.
Why do you need to make it all about Brexit ?
And why do you suppose that the outcome of Brexit can be finally judged after such a short time ? Or on what criteria it can be judged ?
If we want Brexit to work in any positive way, we need to get rid of all the people in government and the civil service who have been and continue to actively frustrate and undermine it. The people who do not understand what their responsibilities are or what democracy means.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

Sorry, when you mentioned Brexit, I was assuming you meant Brexit, so I was replying to you mentioning Brexit. My mistake. But I see you are channelling your inner Rees-Mogg and pretending that it’s been thwarted by the evil ‘blob’, rather than failed due to the lies and inherent contradictions I mentioned above.

Nothing funnier, but at the same time depressing as the replay of Sunset Boulevard “I’m still big, it’s the pictures that got small” that folk like you come out with talking about Brexit.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

No idea what you’re rambling on about there.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Inner Rees-Moog ?
Would that be a bad thing ?

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

No idea what you’re rambling on about there.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Inner Rees-Moog ?
Would that be a bad thing ?

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

JM has no grasp of reality and attempts to tell Leavers why they voted to leave. He is utterly clueless.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

One impact of Brexit and Boris’s rise to PM was it resulted in us having a PM and cabinet wholly unsuited to handling something like a pandemic. Everyone knew Boris not an especially serious or hard working individual on top of his brief. Getting Brexit done led to a cabinet of poor talent where prior loyalty to ‘Big Dog’ and the Brexit fallacy counted for more than ability, aptitude and experience. We had Hancock, Williams, Patel, Raab, Mogg etc in key positions for goodness sake. Even Sunak was massively inexperienced.
It’s no wonder the Govt and Bojo is trying to withhold some key insights into how it handled the pandemic. It’ll reinforce how poor we were served. And there’s the thing – Brexit led to this shower being there in the first place.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

So just how do you know they were “totally unsuited” ? Do you know any of these people ?Shouldn’t we wait for the enquiry ?
It’s arguable that some parts of the Covid response were actually very good. Tell me our vaccination program wasn’t way better than anything the EU managed.
In fact, Johnson is pretty effective in a crisis. It’s the boring, steady state business of government he doesn’t do.
Again, I think Brexit/Boris Derangement Syndrome has got the better of your judgement (which can be quite good IMHO) here.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

We can agree to differ on were these high calibre Cabinet Ministers. I think the general consensus and subsequent findings to date fairly clear, but we’ll at least see the further evidence if they don’t get allowed to supress it. (e.g how well had Williams prepared schools come Wave 2; why did Hancock mislead everyone on Care Homes etc)
As regards Johnson good in a crisis – we already know he didn’t attend Cobra mtgs until quite late and then hadn’t read the brief and background info. Then he gets Covid and is out of commission for 4-6wks. A General getting captured by the enemy early in battle would be seen as negligent and a derogation of responsibility. It was the equivalent as almost certainly because he was late to take it seriously. How on earth you would therefore contend he was good in a crisis I do not know, unless you mean by his absence?

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

In a crisis, someone with imagination who’s prepared to bend and break the rules where necessary is exactly what you need. It’s that simple.
Of course, this is not what you need once the crisis is over.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

In a crisis, someone with imagination who’s prepared to bend and break the rules where necessary is exactly what you need. It’s that simple.
Of course, this is not what you need once the crisis is over.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

We can agree to differ on were these high calibre Cabinet Ministers. I think the general consensus and subsequent findings to date fairly clear, but we’ll at least see the further evidence if they don’t get allowed to supress it. (e.g how well had Williams prepared schools come Wave 2; why did Hancock mislead everyone on Care Homes etc)
As regards Johnson good in a crisis – we already know he didn’t attend Cobra mtgs until quite late and then hadn’t read the brief and background info. Then he gets Covid and is out of commission for 4-6wks. A General getting captured by the enemy early in battle would be seen as negligent and a derogation of responsibility. It was the equivalent as almost certainly because he was late to take it seriously. How on earth you would therefore contend he was good in a crisis I do not know, unless you mean by his absence?

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

You are correct until your last sentence.
None of this had anything to do with BREXIT.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

So just how do you know they were “totally unsuited” ? Do you know any of these people ?Shouldn’t we wait for the enquiry ?
It’s arguable that some parts of the Covid response were actually very good. Tell me our vaccination program wasn’t way better than anything the EU managed.
In fact, Johnson is pretty effective in a crisis. It’s the boring, steady state business of government he doesn’t do.
Again, I think Brexit/Boris Derangement Syndrome has got the better of your judgement (which can be quite good IMHO) here.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

You are correct until your last sentence.
None of this had anything to do with BREXIT.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

Sorry, when you mentioned Brexit, I was assuming you meant Brexit, so I was replying to you mentioning Brexit. My mistake. But I see you are channelling your inner Rees-Mogg and pretending that it’s been thwarted by the evil ‘blob’, rather than failed due to the lies and inherent contradictions I mentioned above.

Nothing funnier, but at the same time depressing as the replay of Sunset Boulevard “I’m still big, it’s the pictures that got small” that folk like you come out with talking about Brexit.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

JM has no grasp of reality and attempts to tell Leavers why they voted to leave. He is utterly clueless.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

One impact of Brexit and Boris’s rise to PM was it resulted in us having a PM and cabinet wholly unsuited to handling something like a pandemic. Everyone knew Boris not an especially serious or hard working individual on top of his brief. Getting Brexit done led to a cabinet of poor talent where prior loyalty to ‘Big Dog’ and the Brexit fallacy counted for more than ability, aptitude and experience. We had Hancock, Williams, Patel, Raab, Mogg etc in key positions for goodness sake. Even Sunak was massively inexperienced.
It’s no wonder the Govt and Bojo is trying to withhold some key insights into how it handled the pandemic. It’ll reinforce how poor we were served. And there’s the thing – Brexit led to this shower being there in the first place.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

The reason that the electorate voted to leave the corrupt EU, is because it simply isn’t acceptable for any self respecting nation to be governed
by a foreign power.
A cabal of an unelected crooks.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Stoater D

Ah, another subject you know nothing about.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Really ?
I know only too well just how corrupt and evil the EU is.
Mind your own business, You you are a truly pathetic individual.

Last edited 1 year ago by Stoater D
j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Stoater D

A common theme in your posts SD – that somehow you in your brilliance have insight into the thoughts and thinking of others. In this example 17m individuals and their detailed personal motivations for where they stuck a cross on a over simplistic binary choice. Narcissistic a bit isn’t it, albeit I recognise that often goes hand in hand with the conspiratorialist.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

I can only react to what people say or claim.
If you or JM claim that Leavers only voted to leave because Johnson lied to them and fooled them then I have to reject that.
Most of us that voted Leave had made up our minds long before Johnson came on the scene.
Conspiratorial ? What do you even mean by that ?
Don’t try and blame the fact that we had a bunch of inept losers and megalomaniacs running the government at the time of the pandemic on BREXIT.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

“A common theme in your posts SD – that somehow you in your brilliance have insight into the thoughts and thinking of others.”

And that is EXACTLY what you are doing in the post above.
You just cannot accept opinions other than your own.

Last edited 1 year ago by Stoater D
John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Stoater D

Except of course he’s not. Just making the point that you claim that you alone speak for 17m people. And I was making the point that what was promised was not delivered.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Yes, he is.
Where did I claim to speak for 17m people ?
I did no such thing.
We know only too well that BREXIT hasn’t been delivered in full and we know why that is.
The establishment don’t like the result of the referendum and have been trying to thwart BREXIT ever since.
You make a lot of false claims about a lot of things and then project such behaviour onto others to the point of lying.
Please stop lying.

Last edited 1 year ago by Stoater D
John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Stoater D

Every single one of your posts makes the claim that you know why people voted for Brexit, when the reasons were complex and not everyone voted for the same thing. Pointing this out isn’t lying, it is just pointing out that claiming to speak for 17m people is delusional and rather sad.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Stoater D

Every single one of your posts makes the claim that you know why people voted for Brexit, when the reasons were complex and not everyone voted for the same thing. Pointing this out isn’t lying, it is just pointing out that claiming to speak for 17m people is delusional and rather sad.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Yes, he is.
Where did I claim to speak for 17m people ?
I did no such thing.
We know only too well that BREXIT hasn’t been delivered in full and we know why that is.
The establishment don’t like the result of the referendum and have been trying to thwart BREXIT ever since.
You make a lot of false claims about a lot of things and then project such behaviour onto others to the point of lying.
Please stop lying.

Last edited 1 year ago by Stoater D
John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Stoater D

Except of course he’s not. Just making the point that you claim that you alone speak for 17m people. And I was making the point that what was promised was not delivered.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

I can only react to what people say or claim.
If you or JM claim that Leavers only voted to leave because Johnson lied to them and fooled them then I have to reject that.
Most of us that voted Leave had made up our minds long before Johnson came on the scene.
Conspiratorial ? What do you even mean by that ?
Don’t try and blame the fact that we had a bunch of inept losers and megalomaniacs running the government at the time of the pandemic on BREXIT.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

“A common theme in your posts SD – that somehow you in your brilliance have insight into the thoughts and thinking of others.”

And that is EXACTLY what you are doing in the post above.
You just cannot accept opinions other than your own.

Last edited 1 year ago by Stoater D
j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Stoater D

A common theme in your posts SD – that somehow you in your brilliance have insight into the thoughts and thinking of others. In this example 17m individuals and their detailed personal motivations for where they stuck a cross on a over simplistic binary choice. Narcissistic a bit isn’t it, albeit I recognise that often goes hand in hand with the conspiratorialist.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

Really ?
I know only too well just how corrupt and evil the EU is.
Mind your own business, You you are a truly pathetic individual.

Last edited 1 year ago by Stoater D
John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Stoater D

Ah, another subject you know nothing about.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

So what ?
The article is about Boris Johnson’s plans. Not Brexit.
Why do you need to make it all about Brexit ?
And why do you suppose that the outcome of Brexit can be finally judged after such a short time ? Or on what criteria it can be judged ?
If we want Brexit to work in any positive way, we need to get rid of all the people in government and the civil service who have been and continue to actively frustrate and undermine it. The people who do not understand what their responsibilities are or what democracy means.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  John Murray

The reason that the electorate voted to leave the corrupt EU, is because it simply isn’t acceptable for any self respecting nation to be governed
by a foreign power.
A cabal of an unelected crooks.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

I suspect there were some that ‘held their noses’ PB, and appreciate you may have been one, but I also strongly feel you have alot of post-facto rationalisation going on here. Boris was loved by so many on the Right because he was constantly chucking them the red meat they wanted. His blustering boosterism was welcomed by many because it absolved them of rational thought and made problems go away…or not as we’ve subsequently found. People got conned, but willingly.
As regards understanding why we voted to Leave – I think many people had much to be angry about and the degree to which that was projected onto the referendum will remain a debate. The reasons people voted in what was a binary choice will be varied and complex and increasingly many will sense a false prospectus was sold. That does not mean elements of what people were angry about were invalid, it’s just gradually dawning the projection was perhaps onto the wrong answer to the right question(s).

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

Wishful thinking.
Just accept that the people rejected the EU and stop pretending that those voters regret leaving. The EU is as despised as ever.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

Wishful thinking.
Just accept that the people rejected the EU and stop pretending that those voters regret leaving. The EU is as despised as ever.

John Murray
John Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

It’s worth reminding ourselves what people were actually asked to vote for in 2015/16. The proposition from the Leave campaign had two components.

Take Back Control: this was essentially neutral, the idea that, free of the EU, we could design our own laws to suit ourselves, on the environment, animal welfare, employment protections etc, with the claim that we would end up with better laws. And immigration, and it’s also worth remembering even Nigel Farage talked of any Australian style points system, which we have effectively ended up with, and Daniel Hannan said straight after the result that it didn’t necessarily mean lower immigration.

Economic Benefits: we were told that we held all the cards in the negotiations so would get a deal which combined all the benefits with none of the obligations, we would then cement massively beneficial trade deals with the US among other countries. This would all turbocharge growth, creating a high wage-high skill economy. The problem here was it assumed that the other 27 countries, who don’t like each other that much, but stay together for the advantage it gives them in collective bargaining wouldn’t use that power in the Brexit negotiations. It also assumed that neither the EU, or other countries, would follow Rule 101 of negotiations; you always, always negotiate in your own self interest. In addition, we would end up with more money to spend on public services.

In the event, once the referendum was won the right wing of the Tory Party pushed for the Hard Brexit that we ended up with. Economically damaging, and with ‘taking back control’ not exactly what everyone expected.

Now that we’ve left there are no longer Leavers and Remainers because the outcomes of Brexit belongs to everyone, regardless of how anyone voted in 2016. There were a lot of different reasons people voted to leave, but the feeling that the economy, the country, no longer offered anything to them or the community was strong among those I personally know, and many who felt that then feel it even more today.

If we want Brexit to work in any positive way we need to accept it’s not delivered the promised benefits and agree a way forward free from the old divisions.

j watson
j watson
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

I suspect there were some that ‘held their noses’ PB, and appreciate you may have been one, but I also strongly feel you have alot of post-facto rationalisation going on here. Boris was loved by so many on the Right because he was constantly chucking them the red meat they wanted. His blustering boosterism was welcomed by many because it absolved them of rational thought and made problems go away…or not as we’ve subsequently found. People got conned, but willingly.
As regards understanding why we voted to Leave – I think many people had much to be angry about and the degree to which that was projected onto the referendum will remain a debate. The reasons people voted in what was a binary choice will be varied and complex and increasingly many will sense a false prospectus was sold. That does not mean elements of what people were angry about were invalid, it’s just gradually dawning the projection was perhaps onto the wrong answer to the right question(s).

Stephen Walsh
Stephen Walsh
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

It was nothing in what any of those people said about Johnson – most particularly his former bosses – which ultimately made Johnson unpopular. Quite the opposite. It was the fact that he turned out to be just like them.

Mike Doyle
Mike Doyle
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

If all the other potential leaders are vichy wannabees, you go with the one that isn’t, no matter what his flaws might be.

Steve Murray
Steve Murray
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

The answer is blindingly obvious, although i suspect not to your taste. He was (rightly) seen as the only politician with the chutzpah to see off the challenges to the Brexit referendum – which he did and which will always stand in the history books.
The rest, as they say, is also history.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  j watson

Totally missing the point JW !!!
Most people who voted for him in 2019 understood perfectly well what he was like, held their noses and did what they had to do. Please don’t imagine there was any pleasure in doing so.
But there was a job that needed doing in 2019 and only one man with any prospect of getting it done (however imperfectly). Never forget that it was the incompetence and stupidity of many other people that created the conditions for Johnson to win in 2019. Theresa May’s high up that list. So are Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon. But so are Keir Starmer and Gina Miller – everything they did ultimately backfired on them.
So your question is irrelevant.
Isn’t it just incredible that 7 years after the EU referendum, some remain supporters still don’t understand why people voted to leave and always try to lump everyone who voted for something together as having the same motives ? Does that tell you anything about your own confirmatory bias ?

j watson
j watson
1 year ago

The reaction already in comments suggests v little appetite likely for a Bojo Mk2.
Perhaps the question folks who supported and championed Mk1 need to ask is – why didn’t I see him for what he was before, as it was v evident to many others already, and even conveyed by his prior Bosses? The question reframed – did you get mugged off by rhetoric and lies and what’s that telling you about your own confirmatory bias?

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago

Johnson is a globalist, you only have to listen to Stanley to see what his son, Boris is really all about.
He took bad advice from Whitty and Vallance and put the country into a catastrophic and unnecessary lockdown. As for Brexit, he only jumped on that bandwagon because it he thought it might be helpful to his career.
He is supporting the proxy war on Russia, initiated by the CIA and NATO. He has advised Zelenskyy to NOT negotiate for a peace settlement.
Johnson is dangerous, a fraud, a liar and a war-monger.
He needs to disappear into obscurity.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago

Johnson is a globalist, you only have to listen to Stanley to see what his son, Boris is really all about.
He took bad advice from Whitty and Vallance and put the country into a catastrophic and unnecessary lockdown. As for Brexit, he only jumped on that bandwagon because it he thought it might be helpful to his career.
He is supporting the proxy war on Russia, initiated by the CIA and NATO. He has advised Zelenskyy to NOT negotiate for a peace settlement.
Johnson is dangerous, a fraud, a liar and a war-monger.
He needs to disappear into obscurity.

Martin Layfield
Martin Layfield
1 year ago

Boris’s major problem with a comeback is he alienated a lot of the constituency of people who would have supported him previously. Even if he was probably hard done by being ejected from office, his failures in office don’t warrant enough people to rally behind a comeback.And I don’t see anything he’s done since losing office to change that view.

Last edited 1 year ago by Martin Layfield
Martin Layfield
Martin Layfield
1 year ago

Boris’s major problem with a comeback is he alienated a lot of the constituency of people who would have supported him previously. Even if he was probably hard done by being ejected from office, his failures in office don’t warrant enough people to rally behind a comeback.And I don’t see anything he’s done since losing office to change that view.

Last edited 1 year ago by Martin Layfield
Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago

Is it not yet clear that Boris Johnson ultimately destroys everything he touches ? As David Starkey pointed out many months ago, he truly is something close to Lloyd George (without the work ethic). And he’s destroying the Conservative party as surely as Lloyd George did the Liberals 100 years ago. Partly because he only really believes in the Boris Johnson party.
He was needed three years ago to clean up the mess May and co got us into. The best man for that job. But no longer with any positive contribution to make.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago

Is it not yet clear that Boris Johnson ultimately destroys everything he touches ? As David Starkey pointed out many months ago, he truly is something close to Lloyd George (without the work ethic). And he’s destroying the Conservative party as surely as Lloyd George did the Liberals 100 years ago. Partly because he only really believes in the Boris Johnson party.
He was needed three years ago to clean up the mess May and co got us into. The best man for that job. But no longer with any positive contribution to make.

Will K
Will K
1 year ago

No need to advise Mr Johnson on what is best for him, he is a master of knowing that.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  Will K

Not sure about that. He does seem to be his own worst enemy.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  Will K

Not sure about that. He does seem to be his own worst enemy.

Will K
Will K
1 year ago

No need to advise Mr Johnson on what is best for him, he is a master of knowing that.

J Boyd
J Boyd
1 year ago

Johnson delivered Brexit which is what we voted for, when the majority of politicians appeared determined to block it.
He had the right vision for the country (“levelling up”) but it was thwarted by Covid. And he managed the pandemic as well as anyone could have done.
He was ousted by vindictive remainders.
He is still the best candidate for Tory leader and for PM.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  J Boyd

Johnson panicked and put the country into a disastrous lockdown all for a disease that for most people was about as bad as nasty cold.
99.9 % of people recovered.
The daily death figures were faked. The government used the pandemic as an excuse to introduce digital IDs.
He is a war-monger, instead of working for peace in Ukraine he is spending taxpayer’s money on prolonging this conflict, thereby ensuring the death and maiming of tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians.
He needs to go to jail for life.

Stoater D
Stoater D
1 year ago
Reply to  J Boyd

Johnson panicked and put the country into a disastrous lockdown all for a disease that for most people was about as bad as nasty cold.
99.9 % of people recovered.
The daily death figures were faked. The government used the pandemic as an excuse to introduce digital IDs.
He is a war-monger, instead of working for peace in Ukraine he is spending taxpayer’s money on prolonging this conflict, thereby ensuring the death and maiming of tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians.
He needs to go to jail for life.

J Boyd
J Boyd
1 year ago

Johnson delivered Brexit which is what we voted for, when the majority of politicians appeared determined to block it.
He had the right vision for the country (“levelling up”) but it was thwarted by Covid. And he managed the pandemic as well as anyone could have done.
He was ousted by vindictive remainders.
He is still the best candidate for Tory leader and for PM.