March 2, 2025 - 10:00pm
The UK and European Union governments face two interlinked dilemmas in their approach to the Ukraine peace process initiated by the Trump administration. It is not clear from the conclusions of Sunday’s London summit whether they will be able to navigate these dilemmas, or even fully recognise them.
The first dilemma is how to strengthen Ukraine’s position in peace negotiations without simultaneously emboldening Ukraine to reject a US-Russia deal. Such a move might provoke Trump into abandoning Ukraine and handing all responsibility for Ukraine over to the Europeans — who cannot in fact meet this responsibility.
The second UK and EU dilemma is how to make themselves look important and “relevant” (something that the European elites see as vital, though it is not incumbent on the rest of us to do so) without making promises they have no intention of actually fulfilling.
Keir Starmer said on Sunday that he, Macron and Zelensky worked out a peace plan which they would present to Trump. He did not give details of this plan, but announced that the summit had agreed on the following four points: to keep military aid flowing into Ukraine; to have Kyiv at the table for any peace talks; for European leaders to aim to deter any future Russian invasion of Ukraine; and to form a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace there in future.
Starmer said that Europe would have to “do the heavy lifting” in a peace deal, but also that the British and EU plan is intended to “ensure that we stay in lockstep with the US”. He denied any split over Ukraine between the US and Europe, and said: “let me be clear — we agree with Trump on the urgent need for a durable peace. Now we need to deliver together”.
However diplomatically necessary, this statement is on the face of it utterly absurd given what happened between Trump and Zelensky on Friday, and the European condemnations of Trump and his approach to peace that followed. There is in fact no evidence whatsoever that Trump wants any help from Britain and Europe in making peace. On the contrary, as he said during Friday’s clash in the White House, he is absolutely convinced that he is the only person capable of making a deal with Putin — and he may be right.
As for Ukraine, Starmer’s promise for continued military aid is essential if Moscow is to be convinced that Ukraine can continue to resist. However, nobody in Britain or Europe should deceive themselves into thinking they can successfully continue on their own for very long if Washington pulls the plug.
But another promise made in London is simply a repetition of an old and infamous lie that has done terrible damage to Ukraine and may do more in future: Starmer’s statement of an intention to form a “coalition of the willing” to “defend Ukraine”, and pledge to send British troops as part of a “peacekeeping force”. Even before Trump, the Biden administration and every leading Nato government had repeatedly declared they would not go to war with Russia to defend Ukraine. This always rendered the idea of Ukrainian Nato membership utterly empty.
Fortunately for the British and Europeans, Russia’s repeated rejection of European “peacekeepers” as part of any settlement means they are very unlikely to be asked to fulfil this promise. If, though, Ukraine continues to insist on it, and Trump loses his temper and walks away from the peace process and support for Ukraine, then Ukrainians may pay a terrible price for European theatrical posturing.
Anatol Lieven is a former war correspondent and Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington DC.
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SubscribeSo let’s be clear: Trump has put forward the basis for a deal which would bring about peace and some kind of security for Ukraine (what’s left of it) by having US personnel on the ground involved in the mineral mining (and likely security personnel among them).
Due to Zelensky’s insistence that Putin must in some way be recognised as an aggressive tyrant (who doesn’t see that?) he’s now moving towards a reliance on Europeans who can offer no guarantees whatsoever, and worse still: would further impoverish the peoples of Europe in trying to prop up the remnants of the Ukrainian state.
Hang on a minute: on the basis of the precious – not to say specious – moralising of our ‘leaders’, we’re to be further shafted for absolutely nothing?
Yup, I think you’ve got all the main points covered.
Not quite. Trump wants a deal now. Putin is happy to do that- on his terms. Trump doesn’t mind that. Why should he – it’s not his country that’s being gobbled up.
Would the presence of American miners in Ukraine deter a renewed Russian invasion? Of course not. The Russians would leave them alone.
Putin just wants a truce, which he can break at the time of his choosing. Trump doesn’t care.
“Why should he – it’s not his country that’s being gobbled up.”
No, it is just his country that has been required to supply the arms that have been “gobbled up.”
“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it” said Churchill. The Europeans find that they haven’t learned and find themselves, once again, unable to defend themselves or anyone else. But the Brits needn’t worry – my own country, Canada, still has three of the four used subs we bought from the Brits. I think they are kinda seaworthy.
Most of the funds the US has allocated to Ukraine have been spent in the US, either buying arms for Ukraine or replenishing the US military’s own stocks. Good for the US economy and rather cheeky, in the circumstances, for Trump to want the money repaid.
With some evidence that Ukraine has resold some arms elsewhere in the world. By the way, as a US taxpayer, I dont care of the spending is with US defense firms. Who cares…stop giving away my tax dollars
So lets be clear: Trump has put forward a deal regarding Ukraine’s mineral resources in which peace and security do not figure at all. The idea that a few American miners and venture capitalists on the ground in Ukraine would constrain Putin is laughable. In any case, Putin has already nullified that by suggesting Trump could obtain access to minerals in E Ukraine and in Russia, through Putin’s good offices.
We don’t know what Trump and Putin have agreed between themselves, if anything. We don’t know what Trump thinks peace looks like or how, other than apparently through strength of personality alone, Trump plans to keep Putin to his word.
So there’s a lot we don’t know. All we do know is that the final outcome will be good for Trump.
Excellent analysis by Anatol Lieven.
The UK and EU are desperately trying to remain relevant, which of course they are not.
If Trump walks away from the whole peace process will the EU offer Ukraine EU membership if they cede Crimea & the Donbas to Russia?
Will that end NATO, with Germany & France forging an EU army?
Would Germany (EU) & Russia then resume diplomatic & trading relations?
They would like nothing better but they haven’t the wherewithal to do it, they know it, Zelensky and Trump know it, and so does Putin of course.
The Trump deal will go through.
I think the author captured European motivations very succinctly – they want to appear to be relevant.
The most competent EU army is Poland’s and it won’t send troops to Ukraine…even as peacekeepers.
In fact, as I understand the situation the Polish people are getting rather fed up with their guests, so are unlikely to want their sons to die for Ukraine even if their politicians promise it.
So all promises made by Starmer and pals are utterly worthless. Both British and EU rulers have delusions of power which were backed by US might…but they’ve now been introduced to reality.
From across the pond.
In geopolitical terms, before last Friday, Zelensky and the EU appeared as the last rays of sunlight upon the mountaintop.
Two days later, how fast is the sun descending behind the mountains!
That’s not the sun, it’s a forest fire.
The UK and the EU are desperately trying to remain relevant, which of course they are not.
If Trump walks away from the whole peace process then the UK and the EU will be exposed as having no clothes.
The UK & Europe know that, Trump & Zelensky know that and so too does Putin.
The Trump deal will go through
Sir Keir ‘Pedo-enabler’ Starmer, ever the sanctimonious Mrs. Jollybee, swoops in to adopt little Vova—now orphaned as Washington ditches proxy wars for tariff wars.
to form a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine
Polling shows that a majority of Germans are unwilling to defend:
Germany! — Never mind Ukraine.
The UK and the EU are desperately trying to remain relevant, which of course they are not.
If Trump walks away from the whole peace process then the UK and the EU will be exposed as having no clothes.
The UK & Europe know that, Trump & Zelensky know that and so too does Putin.
The Trump deal will go through.
Bottom line: power politics requires a bigger stick which Europe.doesn’t have and cannot easily obtain based on fiscal vulnerability, an imability to consolidate efforts, and woeful MoD procurent models. To misquote Buffet: as the tide goes out, Europe appears to be swimming naked.
Good article. The key point is that no one wants a war between the USA and Russia – that would be the wordy outcome of all.
From that everything else follows – no NATO and no US troops.
Ukraine has the choice – ceasefire now with 70% of the country unoccupied or ceasefire in the future with another few tens of thousand men dead and only 50% or less unoccupied.
It is tough for them but it is – and always was – inevitable.
Since in either case Ukraine will end up as the wholly owned property of Russia, it does not really matter where the front lines go when they surrender.
Forget “relevance” the 21st century will be about realism. Britain needs to be able to defend our island and our trade. That means air defences, navy, intelligence, nukes. It does not mean creating new infantry divisions to defend the continent. Russia presents no threat to Britain. The continental nations need to step up their own defences.
It’s just posturing, but the more Britain and the Europeans can put up now means there’s simply more to be haggled away during the negotiations which should in theory be to Ukraines benefit.
When Trump proposes starting something high in order to be negotiated down apparently it’s a work of genius, when others appear to be doing the same then they’re deluded
The difficulty is that Britain and Europe quite obviously have nothing whatsoever to negotiate with, let alone to negotiate down. The USA…is rather different.
It’s all a bit late really. It was always obvious that Europe would talk and reluctantly act and the US would dump Ukraine at some point. For Ukraine, the other other possible deal in town is to ask the Chinese to mediate. They would probably get better long term protection from them. Russia is pretty much a Chinese vassal state now so would be encouraged to comply.
Keir Starmer was a hero for sucking up to Donald Trump, but Volodymyr Zelensky was a hero for standing up to him? In any case, Zelensky, Trump and JD Vance were all as rude as each other.
Those gushing over Starmer and Zelensky called Barack Obama a Russian stooge when he could see no reason for the United States to go to war over Ukraine, and even after 34 years they are still seething about “the Chicken Kiev speech” that was written by Condoleezza Rice. Whatever Zelensky may falsely repeat in the Oval Office or anywhere else, it was not Vladimir Putin, but General Mark Milley speaking less than two miles from the White House, who predicted that Kiev would fall within 72 hours of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
If Trump wants either or both of Ukraine’s and Russia’s mineral wealth, then he is no different from George Bush and Tony Blair in relation to Iraq’s oil. And whatever happened to Rachel Reeves’s fiscal black hole, which she has claimed to be everything from £22 billion to £100 billion, depending on her audience? Not only has Britain promised Ukraine £300 billion over a ridiculous 100 years, but in addition to that, we have stumped up three billion pounds in July 2024, £1.5 billion in January 2025, two billion last month, and £1.6 billion so far this month, a total of £8.1 billion in a mere eight months. How about that, third and subsequent children, pensioners, farmers, bus users, WASPI women, and everyone else?
A bargain, David, compared with what we’re paying Mauritius.
Donald Trump is just the right person to act as mediator between Russia and Ukraine. He has a rare talent for understanding what people really want and crafting a win-win to give it to them. Although head-to-head negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are not going to work, a Donald Trump mediated solution has a chance.
One problem with that is Donald Trump. He’s blowing it. He laid into Volodymyr Zelensky in public and that messes up the mediation process. Mediation is a rough-and-tumble process, and a mediator needs to rough up both parties to move them towards a compromise. But it needs to be done in private
Had Volodymyr Zelensky been smarter he would have done things differently, but the parties to a mediation always do stupid things. The mediator needs to keep the process on track, no matter what happens. The blame for the blowup on Friday is on Donald Trump.
JD Vance and Elon Musk seem to be egging Donald Trump on to do dumb things like this, and Marco Rubio seems to have turned toady too. Too bad this time around there is no Jared Kushner or Ivanka Trump to moderate Donald Trump’s more immoderate behavior. We get too bad to go with the good.
Donald Trump has the chance to be a very good president or a very bad one. Which one will it be? I hoped for the former when I voted for him last November. But I wouldn’t vote for him now. Not a chance.
I feel like, even though Trump talks like a drunk uncle at the table after Christmas dinner, he’s the only adult in the room in this sad debacle at all.
For me, the cards are quite simple. The EU have no power, no army, no political capital, and no fiscal headroom to help the Ukraine outside of sending some new helmets and some polish for the boots.
Zelensky has almost no power without the US. Maybe he can hang on for a while at home by continuing to suppress opposition press and political parties, but their army are already under enormous stress and if America pull out they’ll collapse very quickly.
Trump is in a very tough position. He wants, above all and for very obvious reasons, to avoid kicking off World War 3. I know this sounds very obvious but honestly I feel like Zelensky and the European leaders have disregarded this very important consideration. America, under different management, have kept Ukraine in this war for 3 years and now have to betray them to get peace. His best workaround seems to be to get Putin to sign a deal he’s happy with and that he can call a success, and then use the mineral deal to lay an economic tripwire to dissuade Russia from further aggression.
He’s one of the most rambling speakers you could listen to, but I really think he’s the only major player who seems to have the lay of the land figured out currently.
What makes you think Trump has any interest in dissuading Russia from further aggression? If he had, he would not be giving Putin all those gifts right now, without asking for anything in return.
Good grief! Only the twisted knots of postmodern disease and TDS in the Leftist brain is capable of conjuring up the idea that the available option, over here in reality, to avoid WWIII, are some sort of gifts to Putin.
Present that check your mouth has written on your cheeks! Enlist and demand to be placed immediately on the front line in the Ukraine.
Another good article by this same author: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/zelensky/
What support for Ukraine? Trump is currently sweet-talking Putin and arranging to hand Ukraine over to Russia in return for who knows what payments. A real-estate deal, basically, all the more profitable since he is selling someone else’s property. The Ukrainians, being adults, are perfectly able to decide for themselves whether they will surrender to Russia now, or whether they prefer to gamble on a better result later. It is not Europe, or Trump, who has to decide for them. Meanwhile (this is a hard world) every Russian soldier killed now is one less to attack the next country a few years down the line.
Z will have some hard questions from the Nazis when he gets home. What a dead end. The country was just an American pawn and no one planned for Trump being alive and in charge and turning over the chess board.
If Starmer’s plan is to ‘defend Ukraine’ with NATO troops, this is a reversal of the previous declaration by Biden and the European leaders. Trump has declared that he is sticking to the original.
How can Trump walk away from his own peace process? Isn’t he is the peace process? Did Trump lose his temper, as if listening politely would have resulted in a meeting of minds?
If Starmer presents a plan which is at odds with Trump’s, even his ‘beautiful accent’ might not save him from hearing harsh words spoken in another.
Starmer’s been seized upon by the neocons. He is reversing the position he shared with Trump last week and is now facilitating Zelensky to waste another few months and x number of lives going around Europe with a begging bowl. This will only entrench Putin’s position after spring and he will demand that a new Ukrainian president enters into peace negotiations.
It was the tyranical decisions of NATO pushing East wth missiles and arming an even more tyranical Ukraine that led to Russia intervention defending their embattled citizens.
The concept of peace keeping troops is a nonsense. A few troops cannot stop two nations fighting.
What does the UK do when some Russians shoot some UK peacekeeping troops ? Bomb Moscow ?
Never start a fight unless you know what winning looks like. And you have the strength to win.
Because if you are not prepared to fight and win stay out of it . Because the alternative is fight and lose.
The USA was never a dependable ally in Europe. Learn from the last two world wars. Did they join in at the outset ? No. Would they honour the NATO rules of responding to any attack non a NATO member- not a chance. At least Trump has made it crystal clear that no US marines are going to Europe’s Eastern front -ever. Which is actually helpful because Europes military plans have up to now been based on a fiction. Now Europe knows if it wants defence it has to do it itself.
So, our hero UK leader, Sir Keir ‘Smarmer’ Starmer, is now strutting the global stage by huffing and puffing about doing some “heavy lifting”, and “putting boots on the ground” and aeroplanes into the air in Ukraine!
How risible can this craven Trump toady get?
The regular British Army (including its cooks and bottle-washers, administrative clerks, Q-stores wallahs and establishment of Woke staff officers) could fit its entirety into Wembley Stadium; and still leave 15,000 seats spare for all who might want come along to laugh at the spectacle! Thanks to ‘Call-me-Dave’ Cameron and his Tory successors, our actual fighting land forces have been decimated, our depleted RAF aircraft are decreasingly flown by competent white indigenous males and the RN has two massive new aircraft carriers (complemented by a reduced flotilla that includes some tired nuclear submarines) that have experienced all sorts of problems since being handed over, and few aircraft to grace their decks.
To add to all that, modern UK youth is reported to be decidedly lukewarm about the idea of defending the nation. They won’t be scrambling eagerly to answer the Prime Minister’s call to arms when the regular lot get their boots mired in the Ukranian Steppe and are hammered by Russia’s inexhaustible hordes of cannon fodder, assisted by a few North Koreans unschooled in the niceties of the Geneva Convention.
UK’s defensive capacity is way sub-optimal. To imagine that it has any realistic offensive capability beyond that paucity is suggestive of incipient senile dementia. The term ‘farting against thunder’ seems an adequate descriptor in the present context!
The US, of course, meddled in Ukraine in 2014 and the Biden family, and others, have been making a mint there since. So for Trump to say it’s none of America’s business what happens now is typical Trump: hard-nosed, morality-free business.
I despair of the plank Starmer. His posturing on putting British soldiers into the Ukraine while he invites an “Army” into this Country everyday courtesy of the EU. His globalist ambitions will come back to haunt us when that “Army” turns on us when we are no longer useful for its purposes.