June 28, 2024 - 9:29pm

Democratic backchannels are reportedly plotting to replace Joe Biden on the party’s November ballot. In the hours following the debate, five names emerged as the rumoured top contenders for an emergency replacement.

These individuals are popular in Democratic circles, carrying progressive bonafides and past support for Left-wing social and fiscal priorities. But to win the presidency, they’ll need to appeal to a much broader and politically more moderate audience, for whom their past successes may prove to be liabilities. In addition, they’ll face a unique challenge in Donald Trump.

1. Gavin Newsom

Rumours of Gavin Newsom making a last-minute run at the White House long predate Biden’s disastrous debate performance. A slick and effective communicator, the charismatic Democrat checks all of the superficial presidential boxes, though his reputation as a wealthy coastal elite could pose an image problem.

Newsom has reigned over a period of decline in America’s most populous state, with homelessness and crime contributing to a mass exodus of California residents to other states. Fairly or not, voters are sure to blame him for the public disorder that’s come to define cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco.

He was also widely lampooned for attending an extravagant birthday dinner at the French Laundry in 2020 while he was publicly urging Californians from gathering with their families for the holidays, perhaps the most infamous case of lockdown hypocrisy. RCP polls have Trump beating Newsom in a head-to-head contest by double-digit margins.

2. Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is the only person who could directly inherit Biden’s campaign funds if he exits the race, which could solve a significant problem for the party. Her time as California’s top prosecutor — once a liability that earned her a “cop” nickname — is now an asset as Americans become increasingly concerned about crime.

Yet even as the current sitting vice president, Harris is not considered a shoo-in to replace Biden. She is one of the least popular vice presidents of all time, and Trump has consistently beaten her in the polls, according to an RCP aggregation.

Harris would naturally find herself subject to the same critiques as Biden, namely, inflation and immigration during their time in office. And as the nation learns the extent of Biden’s cognitive decline following this week’s debate, questions may arise about why Harris has been downplaying those concerns. In a contest against Trump, RCP has Harris losing by 6.6 percentage points.

3. Gretchen Whitmer

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer made a name for herself in Democratic circles by taking strong stances on culture war issues. She imposed strict lockdown measures in 2020 and has been a vocal advocate for legal abortion, especially since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. The latter could be an asset for the rising Democratic star, given popular support for Roe.

But the tide of public opinion has turned against lockdowns and other strict covid measures, and Whitmer herself has said the measures she imposed “[didn’t] make a lot of sense”. Centrist voters will likely take issue with those decisions too.

An RCP aggregation shows Trump beating Whitmer handily in a head-to-head contest, with the most recent poll finding a 12 percentage point lead for Trump in February. Nonetheless, she has a strong chance of winning the key swing state of Michigan in a race against Trump — a stronger chance than Joe Biden does.

4. Pete Buttigieg

Pete Buttigieg, 42, is one of the youngest names being floated, creating a useful foil against Biden. The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, performed surprisingly well in the 2020 primary race considering his relative lack of experience, and his military service in Afghanistan helped cement him as a crowd favourite in American politics.

His embrace of social justice issues may hurt him with the average voter. For instance, he launched a $1 billion government programme to promote racial equity in the nation’s roadways.

Further, his term as secretary of transportation has suffered a number of setbacks. He was subject to criticism from the Right for taking lengthy family leave during a maritime transportation crisis in 2021, as well as for his later handling of a train derailment in Ohio which resulted in a massive chemical spill. His odds against Trump haven’t been polled since 2020, when Buttigieg beat Trump by two to four percentage points, though Trump has seen a surge in popularity in the years since.

5. J.B. Pritzker 

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker may have the weakest name recognition of the group, to the extent that pollsters haven’t even been gauging his strength in a prospective matchup against Trump. He’s one of America’s least popular governors, pulling in only 44% support in his home state.

Yet his name appears in nearly every report on potential Biden replacements. Pritzker is also worth $3.5 billion, meaning he could bankroll his own campaign and skirt the technical issues that would make it difficult or impossible for a candidate besides Kamala Harris to access Biden’s campaign funds. His past expansion of legal abortion in his state and raising of the minimum wage would likely prove popular with voters, as would his breaking with his party on the immigration issue as migrants poured into Chicago last year.


is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

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