On Thursday the CIA released two videos designed to recruit members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as informants for US intelligence. Yet the videos are unlikely to appeal to the Chinese public, assuming they gain much traction on the other side of the Great Firewall. Meanwhile, they could further inflame tensions between Washington and Beijing amid a trade war and lack of clarity from a US administration which swings between desires for dealmaking, deterrence, and decoupling from China.

According to CIA Director John Ratcliffe, such videos have proven effective recruitment mechanisms in the past. Better recruitment of Chinese assets is a priority for the CIA; starting in 2010, Beijing effectively dismantled the agency’s presence in China, imprisoning and executing up to 20 sources.

The videos are designed to target two kinds of CCP official. One follows a hypothetical senior cadre as he notes how many of his colleagues have been purged and wonders if he’ll be next, referencing the continuous dismissals and detentions of Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign. The second follows a lower-ranking official desperate to pursue his own dreams but forced to live according to those of his superiors, playing on widespread popular concerns with income inequality and lack of career prospects.

While the videos might garner recruits, this is likely to be at the cost of further damage to Sino-American relations and to the US’s reputation among the Chinese public.

From Beijing’s perspective, the public announcement of the videos can be seen as an open attack by the US government on China’s political system. The CCP leadership has long feared that Washington’s ultimate aim is regime change in China, and these videos will serve as a confirmation of sorts, particularly coming from a US administration with a defence strategy apparently focused almost solely on deterring China.

China has already taken an uncompromising attitude to the trade war, viewing it as part of a broader geopolitical showdown. Having taken steps to prepare for what the second Trump administration could bring, Beijing has intensified its drive for technological self-sufficiency and presented itself as the more reliable partner to the rest of the world. Meanwhile, the trade war has galvanised Chinese public opinion against the US.

In this context, the videos directly feed Beijing’s broader narrative around Washington’s insidiousness and the failures of the US system. The social problems the videos highlight — an unfair economy, lack of prospects, self-interested oligarchical elites — could easily be seen by many in China as direct reflections of the US under Trump.

While the videos show already-disillusioned viewers how to contact the CIA, their own narrative is far from persuasive. The one targeting lower-ranking officials reads as more American than Chinese in sentiment. The aspiring but dissatisfied official seeks his own individualistic dream. But his current situation — with a family and his own home, and in a good Party job which opens rather than closes doors — is one aspired to by millions in China. Why risk all that by contacting the US security services?

As for the video targeting senior cadres, why, if you were worried about being purged, would the logical next step be to massively increase risk to yourself and your family by logging on to the CIA’s website and giving your superiors legitimate grounds for dismissal, imprisonment, or worse?

Ultimately, the videos and their very public announcement feed directly into Beijing’s narrative that US spies are everywhere and seeking to undermine Chinese society at all levels. As geopolitical tensions rise and Trump’s China policy remains dangerously muddled, the US should be wary of encouraging a view in Beijing that the two countries are engaged in an existential struggle.

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William Matthews is Senior Research Fellow for China and the World at Chatham House, where he works on China’s geopolitical influence with a focus on technology, defence, and security.

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