Will the affordability issue sink the Trump administration and imperil Republican control of the House in 2026? In a new Politico poll, almost half (46%) say the cost of living is the worst they can ever remember — including 37% of Donald Trump’s 2024 voters.

Democrats hope that in “affordability” they have found an issue which works against Trump and his party. The good news for the President is that he still enjoys the backing of most Republican voters, although his support among independents, including many young voters and Hispanics, has reached a new low of 25%. He is also not helping his case by falsely asserting that “everybody knows that it’s far less expensive under Trump than it was under Sleepy Joe Biden. And the prices are way down.”

It is true that today’s inflation rate of around 3% a year is far below the 9.1% peak reached in 2022 under Biden. But many Americans are comparing their situation to what it was before Covid. Since 2020, average consumer prices have risen by around 125%. Unfortunately, many voters who expect post-2020 inflation to be fully undone — with prices returning to pre-Covid levels — are unlikely to be reassured by small-bore proposals. Trump’s promise that repealing Biden-era fuel-efficiency standards will lower vehicle costs, or the modest Medicare savings from drug-price negotiations, won’t meet those expectations.

Those who want prices to actually decline to 2019 levels are perhaps being unrealistic, but many of them vote and they may direct their anger at incumbent politicians. Many, for example, don’t realise that some goods, such as computers, airfare, and toys, are now cheaper than they were before the pandemic. Adding to the pain, interest rates — raised by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation — remain high, which has increased the cost of borrowing. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate now stands at more than 6% — more than twice as high as the 3% rate in 2021.

In Trump’s defence, major public policies need time to take effect. In May, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that by the same time in 2026 the US economy would be growing at more than 3% annually, driven by tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and other initiatives. That forecast isn’t just wishful thinking: the US economy surged at a 3.8% annualised pace in the second quarter of this year, hinting that the trajectory Bessent envisioned is already underway.

It’s possible that a mix of tariff-driven corporate investment in the US, the ongoing surge in AI-related firms and facilities, and tight labour markets fuelled by mass deportations and declining immigration could spark a significant boost in growth and jobs. Yet many Trump-era policies — from industrial reshoring and immigration restrictions to the push for expanded oil and gas drilling — are likely to take years, not months, before yielding measurable results.

In turn, that will only happen if the new policies are not blocked or reversed by Democrats in the White House and Congress in the future. For Trump’s initiatives to be given time to succeed, he himself may need to be succeeded by Vice President JD Vance or another like-minded Republican working with a Republican Congress over several presidential terms. Otherwise, like Biden’s failed attempt to restructure the US economy along race- and gender-conscious green lines, Trump’s economic programme may not be given the time that is required to win over the American people.