November 24, 2024 - 8:00am
Before this year’s general election, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said his aim was to follow in the footsteps of the Right-wing party that usurped Canada’s Progressive Conservatives in the early Nineties. “They are the model. That’s the plan,” he claimed, even naming his own party after the Canadian upstarts.
When the Progressive Conservatives were defeated in 1993, the Reform Party won a staggering 26 times as many seats as the established party of the Right. In the UK’s July election, the situation was almost exactly the reverse. The Conservatives, although suffering the worst defeat in their history, still won 24 times as many seats as Reform. But while the Tories remain the principal centre-right party, Reform’s success at recent by-elections shows that the party might not have to wait until the next election to shake up the British political system.
Some 2,240 councillors are up for election in May, more than half of whom are Conservatives elected in the heady days when Boris Johnson was popular and the Tories were receiving credit for the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. Reform barely featured in the contest and won just two seats. They are determined to be a bigger force this time, having snapped up two victories in recent council by-elections in Kent.
Farage has said that he will be “throwing the kitchen sink” at next May’s elections and has pledged to stand in every single English County Council seat. Analysis by Election Maps UK shows the net impact they could have. Since the election, in seats where Reform hasn’t stood a candidate, the Tories have recovered and gained 3.6% of the vote share; where Reform has been on the ballot, the Conservatives have lost 2.8%. A repeat of those results would certainly get in the way of the Conservative Party recovering its electoral strength.
Of course, Reform could lose salience with a good performance from new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and her fresh shadow cabinet. And playing the role of spoiler to a Tory recovery could also pose a risk for Farage’s popularity. It could associate Reform not with taking on the government or the “establishment” but with enabling Labour and the Lib Dems. To coin a phrase: if you come for the Tories, you better not miss. If you do, as so far Farage has, you will simply fracture the Right and embolden the Left. Reform voters may grow disillusioned with voting Reform and getting Labour or the Lib Dems.
Farage will be hoping that 2024’s election, which saw the party pick up four million votes, could merely be a stepping stone to their eventual dominance of the Right. Instead of England’s local elections, Wales’ Senedd contest in 2026 may be their best opportunity. Back in July, Reform were nipping at the Tories’ heels in Leave-voting Wales, polling just 17,000 fewer votes. (Reform could have been closer still; the party failed to nominate a candidate in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney, where their candidate withdrew after allegations of reposting racist content online.)
If Reform can improve on this performance, they could truthfully call themselves Wales’ principal Right-wing party. Scotland will no doubt be more difficult. That said, even in the Labour heartland of Maryhill in Glasgow, Reform came third in this week’s council by-election. Success in Wales could become a blueprint for the rest of the country.
But their Canadian lodestars offer a warning. Back in 1993, Canadian Reform managed to take on the mantle of the Right, but not the government and over three elections they helped the Canadian Liberals form majority administrations. Farage may yet find that even if Reform overtakes the Tories, the result will only be a more deeply fractured, not united, Right.
Lee David Evans is an historian of the Conservative Party and the John Ramsden Fellow at the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary, University of London.
LeeDavidEvansUK
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SubscribeThe road from protest vote to main stream party in a first past the post electoral system is an extremely hard and rocky one.
The advantage that reform has over the conservatives is that they are clear about what they stand for and have articulated what they would do in their manifesto (albeit only at the first derivative level, there is a lot of detail missing) and they have a charismatic leader who can connect with people.
The conservatives, on the other hand, are currently not clear about what they stand for but have the benefit of being the current right wing incumbent, with reasonably strong local representation and a long established party machine (although how well this still functions is debatable) but their new leader is as yet unproven.
It will be interesting to see how the local elections unfold. If reform do well and the tories do not then Badenoch will become vulnerable and might be ousted. Yet another change of leader would be a strong indicator that the party has truly lost its way and could provide provide the catalyst reform needs to cement itself into the publics mind as the the true heirs of the right.
Maybe. There are an awful lot of ifs and maybes and coulds in here, the crystal ball is very cloudy. The one thing one can be sure of is that labour will continue to be an unmitigated distaste and will suffer hugely in May 2025 at the local elections.
Reform must take on labour not the Tories. Labour is in control so let’s hear what reform will do.
One of the clear silver-linings for Starmer right now is this inevitable face off between Kemi and Nige.
Kemi’s had a relatively weak start, underwhelming endorsement from fellow MPs and she’s got a really difficult position to defend given the 14 year nightmare Tory rule that’ll be rightly played back at her repeatedly. Nige too though got v little to offer beyond rhetoric on immigration and his own persona. Soon as a broader policy offering needed and more of the loons Reform attract as candidates illuminated the combination will sink them. Maybe having a few Councils to run will aid that illumination, and just perhaps move a few beyond the adolescent tripe they spout. For example let’s see how they manage a social care budget.
Starmer has reduced industrial disruption and reduced strikes, helped renters worried about eviction, doctors a decent catch -up pay rise, the path to reducing waiting times set, an uplift in minimum wage for those most struggling and better employment protections, and next year the breakfast clubs will start helping parents and kids nutrition. However an overwhelmingly right wing media will continue to fixate on the fact some v advantaged types are having to pay a bit more – wealthy land owners, businesses being passed on, those sending kids to private school etc, and his message can get drowned out. Which is why a Kemi vs Nige fight is doubly helpful. Long may it last.
Wow! Labour have been in power since July (four months or so) and a miracle has occurred! Everything in the garden is fabulous it seems. I think ‘spectacle and clothes-gate’ was a bad move for a multi-millionaire PM to make and illustrates poor judgement and Starmer is not alone in this. Rayner and Reeves have also been found with their noses in the trough.
Starrmer bought off the rail workers by giving them everything that they wanted and asked for nothing in return. There are no guarantees that they won’t strike again. The uplift in minimum wage together with National Insurance increases will undoubtedly impact businesses. There will be increased prices for consumers and/or job losses and inflationary pressures as a result. I’ll believe that waiting times are falling when I see them rather than write about them as if they’re here now. Let’s wait and see where we are in a year’s time, or in two years or at the end of the term before we decide how well the party has done shall we?
You are correct in that we’ll have to see how things go now over next year or two. Nonetheless given the inheritance some difficult calls inevitable and I would assume we just disagree on what those had to be. I’m for the broadest shoulders pay more for sure. The Right to date has been dishonest and not outlined what it would do.
Where I think you are wrong is indicating Starmer is a multi-millionaire. I think you are mixing him up with his predecessor. To be taken seriously you have to avoid hyperbolic nonsense. Nonetheless clothes-gate was an definite error.
Of course Starmer is a multi-millionaire. His pension alone is worth more than £2 million. In a party of freeloaders he is the GOAT.
Oh dear, Labour and their supporters never learn, do they? I lived through Wilson, Callaghan, Blair and Brown. They all made the country poorer. The economy was in a worse state at the end of their terms of office than at the beginning. Starmer looks as though he will follow suit.
Do you really think that a few wealthy land owners, a few inherited businesses and a few people who send their children to private schools are going to finance Labour’s excesses by paying “a bit more”. That truly is adolescent political thinking. Labour knows this. Those taxes represent a cynical attempt to garner the envy vote. In truth, Labour hope to pay for their ambitions through the increase in employers NIC. This taxation will be inflationary, will exacerbate the cost of living crisis and will seriously hamper economic growth. Perhaps Labour think the resultant burdens upon ordinary working people of failed economic policy are worth it if they can provide a few goodies to the electorate (free breakfasts and so on) and feed the voracious maw of the public service unions. Thus they hope to cling on to power at the next general election.
And so it goes.
What socialists tend to forget is that taxation leads to both behavioural change and resentment. I think it is highly likely that Starmer’s governance will last for only one parliament.
By your own admission you’re a rich landowner, but you’re not paying ‘a bit more’. In fact, since the pandemic you have continued to acquire unearned wealth at an even faster rate than ever.
This last budget is the final proof, if any was needed, that Labour is a party of freeloaders intent on bleeding the productive sectors of our economy to death.
The Conservatives have been sabotaged from within. That is clear now especially after Nadine Dorries has supplied all the evidence. She asked at the end of The Plot “Has Gove’s 22 year quest to burn the party to the ground finally come to fruition?” Obviously so. The Tories, or what’s left of them after the manufactured media scandals, the toppling of leaders, Ian Duncan Smith, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson, are toast. The right wingers have been culled. The Tories have morphed into the Left, accepting all the their values. On finances, on immigration, on the Left’s Theory of Gender and Race, hate crime, non-crime. They are now what Gove and Cummings and his Movement friends wanted all along, a new party, a woke copy of labour.
Will Reform get their act together in four short years? How can they? They lack experience of working in Westminster. They will need time to build up their activist base, their MPs, their support, their policies. Even if they did all this the vote of the Right will still be split. Many will vote conservative out of loyalty, not realising their party is no more.
Expect two terms of Starmer. God help the UK. You’ll need it.
In a post from 17 minutes ago, JW speaks of “more of the loons Reform attract as candidates”. I have said many times that the big test of Reform will be in 18 months’ time with the Assembly (Senedd is pretentious) elections, exactly because of the loons in charge of the Assembly at the moment.
Wales has been controlled by Labour since devolution and it’s decisions have been sillier and sillier every year:
1) People will have read recently that they want to focus on minorities. To this end they have commissioned many expensive reports by idiots. The latest suggested that dog walking in public places was racist – the researchers asked one black woman who said that she didn’t like dogs. It also suggested that fishing was racist and male. Last year the Assembly paid £120,000 for two Muslim women to go fly fishing for the day and they didn’t enjoy it.
2) Still on minorities. At the end of last week they announced that they would pay the winter fuel allowance – to travellers only. To add to this, travellers will get free SIM cards (indefinitely?).
3) In the 2026 election they have increased the number of seats from 60 to 96, whilst paying an allowance to candidates from ethnic minorities. Will they help Tory candidates as well? This seems to be trying to buy a majority for ever.
4) Every week there is a televised 40 minutes of questions to the First Minister. Are the questions about the NHS (worst in Britain), people on benefits (worst), jobs…? No, the questions were as follows:- Should Wales set up a dog’s home inspectorate…Wales must have a new National Park somewhere around the Dee Valley….”What will Wales do for women”…. Can Wales pay to open an old tunnel in the Rhondda Valley. This is for cyclists apparently and will cost £20 millions.
What Wales could do for women is to improve the NHS. If there is a new National Park there will be no new roads and the existing roads will force visitors to drive at 20mph.
So much for Reforms loons.
Remember MP Nick Boles? A parachutee gay cancer survivor in the Grantham constituency. He went against everything the area’s largely farming population stood for. The local association fell out with him over Brexit and he eventually flounced off and implored us to vote Labour. The area is still one of the safest Tory seats in the country – definitely donkey blue rosette. I’m not sure what the Nigerian effect will be but suspect little change. Tice got the coastal seat Boston and Skegness.
Regardless, beyond PPE, there’s no exam or university course on how to run a country. If there is nobody passed. So why shouldn’t a Party of entrepreneurial patriotic folk with proven life work experience prevail?
Labour field no great intellects any more. A mere glance at the news enforces that.
The Tories are not awash with inspirational giants. The old school lie fallow on what’s left of their backbenches, those temporarily out of seats, JRM, Mordaunt etc won’t want to return in junior roles if they return at all. Presumably Davey will have to return his loaned southern seats. The problem I see is that either Reform or Tories will be up against the Left woke institutions. To be at odds with each other is madness where over in USA previous Democrats like RFK Jnr and Tulsi Gabbard can change for the optimum side.
The current Tory leader is not shining, fighting on two fronts is in common for both Parties. Labour stand to lose 200 seats with a 5% swing, back to 2019-24 levels. One victor must emerge and I detect buyers remorse among the Tories. Alex Burghart showed that.
In the marginal seat where I live I have no doubt that Reform’s performance in the General Election resulted in the Conservatives losing the seat the Conservative vote share dropping by 20% compared to 2019 whereas the Labour vote was down by only 6%. The real test will be in the Assembly elections in May 2026 with the latest polling suggesting that Labour is down to 33% with Reform on 21% overtaking the Conservatives polling 18%. My forecast would be that Labour would still be in control propped up by the Welsh Nationalists (Plaid Cymru) and/or the Liberal Democrats if necessary. History shows that Wales has never voted for a centre right party in over 150 years. Labour however disastrously it performs (see Caradog Williams below) always comes out on top.
Hi. I am really depressed about the way we are going – and I agree with everything you have said. The problem for me is that to point out the abuse of power by Welsh Labour has the effect of belittling Wales in the eyes of English people. But to make these things public is the only way to stop them.
Reform is the only answer for the medium term future but the chances of success are minimal. Where I live, nobody would vote Tory because of the ghost of Margaret Thatcher. Plaid Cymru doesn’t have a policy except independence but it doesn’t actually know how to achieve that – I say this because last year I paid £60 to join and I just got loads of rubbish about an idyllic future but nothing about the present. Last year Plaid paid a lot of money for a report, “Is independence viable?” The report said that it was viable with serious poverty in the short- and medium-term. Plaid issued a statement – “Yes independence is viable!”
All of us English know and like many Welsh peolpe. Expose it all. That is the only way. No Englishman will look diwn on the Welsh more than they do themselves for allowing the political class we all have in common now, the Far Left.
If the Welsh kick Labour out they will have the undying admiration of the English people.
Better a Labour government, as much as I despise them, than a Tory government run by wets.
If by the next General Election Labour, the Conservatives and Reform are all as (un)popular as each other then the electoral dynamic is interesting. You could find Reform winning in Midlands and the North, and Conservatives winning in the South.
If it is still a two party affair then Labour as ‘the other mainstream party that needs a lesson’ will lose significantly.
A nightmare scenario is no one votes Conservative or Labour, and that will leave the path open for the Lib Dems. ie Labour lite with a green tinge.
Lib Dems are Labour Left for those who like to pretend they are a moderate.
The only thing Reform will do is keep a really destructive and incompetent Labour party in power. This was obvious before the last election, where the “anyone but the tories” tactical voting showed a level of intelligence that was missing from everyone who voted for Reform, and will be so at the next election.
I understand voting Reform as a protest vote at the last election given that the Tories were talking Conservative whilst acting like Blair/Brown in reality, but the simple fact is that under our electoral system, a vote for Reform is in effect a vote for Labour.
In many ways you are right but as noted already, better to have loony left Labour than loony left Socialists pretending to be Conservatives
This is all highly amusing!
Farage is the original swivel eyed loon but Badenoch isn’t far behind him in the crazy stakes! Let’s all enjoy watching them fight over the few remaining Tory voters like a couple of bald men fighting over a comb while Starmer leads Britain into a sun-dappled socialist future!
You are confused between Socialism (a theory) and Labour (a party). Socialism has never been successful in a stable way because the governments/parties become corrupt. About 60 years ago, Socialism was popular under the leadership of Harold Wilson – the man from Oxford University who pretended to have a proper working class background. He was a clever man but a pretender. His most vigorous Socialist ally was Richard Crossman who was so keen on the theory of Socialism that he focussed all his energies on destroying grammar schools and he succeeded. After a hard week in parliament he retired to his huge farm with cooks, servants, gardeners etc.
On the Right side ‘Tory’ is just the name of a party, not a theory. You ought to know this really. So you really mean, ‘..the few remaining Right voters’. Well, we have already had a big reaction to Labour and Right voters are clearly increasing.
Socialists morph into crooks, if not controlled. I’m surprised you don’t know things like this – all a good background for the study of government. In my eyes you have morphed into Prosecco Socialist.
Looks like you may have a touch too much prosecco before you wrote that comment, my boy!
Looks like you may have a touch too much ketamine before you wrote that comment, my they/them!
Ideally, Tories and reform should look at the polls, ans strike a seat sharing deal agaisnt Labour.
One that acknowledges the fact that Reform is a the very least a same rank junior partner.If this can be done in relatively good faith, both parties will benefit. The alternative is more Starmer.
The problem for both right wing parties are as follows
Want to be National Conservatives focusing on country identity with Swashbuckling Libertarian style Free Trade deals which means more immigration, theoretically better quality, but still more.
Tories are socially liberal whereas Reform as much less so.
Farage as broad appeal whereas no current Tory will
Maybe it will be earlier than 2029:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700143?s=08
Over 2 million signatures at time of posting and only been running a couple of days.
Where has the influence of Farage been felt since July? Not via his closeness to the once and future POTUS or his coastal constituents, not in the corridors of Westminster or among aggrieved country folk.
There is a saying that new businesses are either plums or lemons and lemons ripen faster that plums. Reform is ripening rapidly.