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May 6, 2021 - 7:00am
The expectations game in the run up to local elections is bizarre at the best of times, but possibly never more so than this year. Under normal conditions the central question would be “is the opposition party doing well enough to point towards a victory at the next election?”
Given the circumstances of these elections, however, nobody thinks Labour is even going to come close to clearing that bar. Firstly, the success of the vaccine rollout has pulled the Tories back into the lead in recent months. The political weather is still being driven by how successfully the government is getting jabs into arms, and 72% of voters think they are doing a good job at it.
Secondly, the individual circumstances in some of the key races would make it look like Labour are underperforming in the “Red Wall”, even if they were doing better at a national level.
The collapse of the Brexit Party in Hartlepool makes it a difficult seat to hold and the incumbency boost for Andy Street in the West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Tess Valley will likely be enough to see them re-elected as Metro Mayors. Many of the Red wall council seats that are up for grabs were last fought before the EU Referendum. So even if Labour bounce back from their 2019 vote share, there’s still plenty of room to perform worse than they did in May 2016.
So instead, the question going into this crop of elections is “can Labour achieve a result that doesn’t look like a disaster”?
Against this backdrop there are five results Labour might be able to pull off today that would at least give them something positive to point to. Achieving all of them is unlikely, but it isn’t out of the question that they could fall the right side of the line in one or two:
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SubscribeIf you work with pollsters I would expect you to have a great interest and excitement with how polls predict the actual results.
If you believe that opinion polls are a waste of time, it would be difficult to be interested at all.
If you believe that opinion polls are there to give bored people something to talk about, then we need more people to train as pollsters.