Could Japan buck the trend and escape Donald Trump’s tariffs? There is optimism here in Tokyo after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview this week on Fox Business: “I would expect Japan is going to get priority, because they came forward very quickly.” In response, the Nikkei — which had registered its third-largest drop in history on Monday — recovered much of the lost ground yesterday.

It seems as if Japan is being rewarded for its calm and pragmatic response to the shock imposition of 24% tariffs (and 25% for the crucial auto industry) on its exports to the US. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba kept his cool, stressing that there would be no tit for tat, and quickly set about working on solutions.

In truth, Ishiba had little choice: retaliation was never really an option. Japan’s imports from America, such as agricultural products and commodities, are not suitable for retaliatory tariffs, because temporary shortages in these items would be a real problem for food security. Auto industry exports are also pivotal to Japan’s economy, so couldn’t be jeopardised. Ishiba knew immediately that it was better to take his “medicine” (as Trump calls the tariffs), and salvage what he could.

It’s not a total surrender, though. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi reminded the US in a speech last Thursday that Japan had invested $60 billion in the US over the last four decades and created 2.3 million jobs. Ishiba reportedly told Trump during a 25-minute phone call on Monday night that the tariffs would make it difficult for Japan to maintain that level of investment, an argument which may have gone some way in convincing the US President.

But this is likely not the only reason why Trump is less enthusiastic about penalising Japan than most other countries. He hinted as much when he ran through his chart on “Liberation Day”, calling the Japanese “great people”. Though Trump does have longstanding grievances going back to the Eighties about Japan’s unfair trading practices, if there is any country — aside from the UK — that he has a soft spot for, it is Japan. He loved coming here during his first term, no doubt in part because he was treated respectfully, and has maintained contact with Shinzo Abe’s widow Akie.

Given China’s intransigence and escalation, it would also be prudent to keep the region’s other big player firmly onside. The US remains heavily invested militarily in Japan and, though Trump has grumbled about Tokyo not doing enough to bolster its defence, the US was never plausibly going to remain hostile towards its strongest regional ally. In any case, Ishiba had already moved on that issue too, with plans to place long-range missiles on the island of Kyushu within striking distance of China and North Korea.

The Japanese PM’s phone call with Trump resulted in a wide-ranging trade package including liquified natural gas, cars, agricultural products and national security being drawn up to form a basis for negotiations. Arrangements were made to dispatch what Trump called a “top team” to Washington. Trade minister Yoji Muto called the response “bold and speedy but calm and rational”.

Bessent is tasked with realising the President’s vision of a “new Golden Age of Global Trade” with Japan. While the Japanese might be excused for wondering “Golden Age for whom?”, their government’s rational and mature response to Trump’s tariffs might serve as an example for others to follow — whether they want to or not.

---

Philip Patrick is a lecturer at a Tokyo university and a freelance journalist.

@Pbp19Philip

---