July 24, 2024 - 4:30pm

The Tory leadership contest is underway. Formal nominations close on Monday, but James Cleverly has already taken to the pages of the Telegraph to make his pitch and there’s no mistaking his theme. “In opposition we must be unified and disciplined,” he says. We need to “present an offer of unity, security and prosperity”. Driving his point home, he claims that he “can unite the Conservative Party”, and has accompanied his leadership launch with a glossy video in which he plays up his modest background and everyman credentials. Rather like Keir Starmer and his toolmaker dad, there’s mention of his mother’s career as a midwife, but somewhat less about his private education.

Cleverly, formerly foreign secretary and home secretary, blames the worst election result in Conservative history on “infighting, navel-gazing and internecine manoeuvrings” in government. Really, those were secondary effects, the result of a deeper malaise. Given the clear mandate of 2019, why did his party elect three terrible leaders in a row — each of whom effectively told the Red Wall to drop dead? Cleverly offers no clue.

In a highly competitive field, the worst of the three was Liz Truss, of whom he was an ally. She rewarded him with a spectacular promotion to the Foreign Office. No wonder he doesn’t want his party dwelling on the past. As for his vision for the future, it’s nothing more than the libertarian-lite pap that’s left the Conservatives rudderless for years. For instance, he advocates “lower taxes, with a smaller state”, but also “ramping up defence spending to 3% of GDP”. He favours “stimulation through deregulation” while vowing to protect the sacred green belt from “sprawl”. He wants a “national sense of purpose” based on an “economic dream of aspiration”. Amazingly, he accuses Labour of ideological incoherence in his Telegraph article.

This all-things-to-everyone message could yet see Cleverly elected leader. After all, it wouldn’t be the first time that an affable, mainstream contender has come through the middle to take the Tory crown. It happened in 1997, when the arch-Europhile Ken Clarke and the arch-Eurosceptic John Redwood were edged out by the compromise candidate, William Hague. Cleverly is hoping to pull off the same trick, using his pro-Brexit credentials to run to the Right of Remainers such as Tom Tugendhat while tacking to the Left of Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.

Of course, every leadership race is different, not only because of who’s running but also because of the contest format. In 1997, it was settled among MPs in the space of a few weeks. But in 2024, it’s a much more complicated and drawn-out affair. After nominations close, the candidates will slug it out over the summer. In September they’ll be whittled down to four semi-finalists, who will then make their case in speeches to the party’s annual conference. After that, MPs choose two finalists to go forward to a ballot of party members, the winner of which will be announced on 2 November.

The closest comparison, therefore, is not with 1997, but with 2005 — the last time the Tories used this “beauty contest” format to choose a leader. The speeches will be crucial. In 2005, David Davis was the clear frontrunner, but his conference pitch fell flat. He should have been the more radical and exciting candidate, but he bored delegates with a safety-first, unite-behind-me message not unlike Cleverly’s. David Cameron, however, gave the speech of a lifetime, challenging his party on its deepest flaws and habitual complacency, but also inspiring it to do better. The contrast transformed the race.

Cleverly would do well to learn the lessons of the past. He’s not a bad speaker, but he needs something to say. So far, he doesn’t have enough.


Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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