January 19, 2025 - 12:10pm

Nobody’s memory is as long as that of a map. Generations later, historical memories remain imprinted on the national subconscious — a phenomenon which can be observed in new MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) polling ahead of next month’s German elections.

When voters go to the polls on 23 February, the country will be noticeably split along the lines of the former West and East Germany, with the latter dominated by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the former by the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party (CDU/CSU).

Source: YouGov

A keen observer might attribute this difference to East Germany’s past as a Soviet satellite state, but this would only tell half the story. In last summer’s state elections, 38% of those aged 18-24 in Thuringia voted for the AfD, while in neighbouring Saxony the figure was 31%. In both regions, the AfD’s vote share within this age group increased by at least 11%, making it the most favoured party among young Germans. Across the region, one-third of Germans under the age of 34 voted for the AfD.

These young Germans have no living memory of communist times, yet they appear to be the ones most attracted to the AfD. The trend is also now spilling over into the old West Germany, if last summer’s European Parliament elections are any indication. The AfD’s support increased across nearly every age group, finding its most notable success among young voters. At the 2019 EU elections, one in three voters under the age of 24 backed the Greens, while the AfD captured only 5% of the youth vote. By 2024, however, 16% of young voters supported the hard-Right party, bringing it nearly level with the CDU/CSU for the demographic.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is poised to become the next chancellor, might think that he is in a secure position. According to the most recent polls, his party is 10 percentage points (31%) ahead of the AfD (21%), and he no doubt believes the East German trend can be treated as a regional abnormality.

Yet there is a real chance that the “abnormality” is in fact the current high support for the CDU/CSU, as voters look set to flock in ever higher numbers to the AfD. Merz will win the election, but will he be able to form a government? He has vowed to never cooperate with the AfD, which will force him into a coalition with either the Greens or the SPD (or both), making it all but impossible to enact the conservative reforms most Germans clearly want. After all, it is the AfD and the centre-right CDU/CSU which would have a comfortable majority with over 50% of the vote. If Merz fails to meet the expectations of conservative Germans, it is not hard to see where they would turn.

The country is entering its third year in recession, and without a reversal of many of the SPD and Green policies — especially in the energy sector and excessive welfare state — it will be necessary to turn the ship around. It is not clear, however, whether the SPD’s Olaf Scholz or the Greens’ Robert Habeck would agree to reverse their own projects under chancellor Merz. The only party willing to do so is the AfD — but it will remain excluded from government in almost every plausible scenario.

Without an improvement of economic conditions, it is hard to see how the popularity of the AfD will be diminished. Merz could try taming the party by entering into a coalition and thereby arresting its rise. If he waits until the next elections, it may be too late.


Ralph Schoellhammer is assistant professor of International Relations at Webster University, Vienna.

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