Nobody’s memory is as long as that of a map. Generations later, historical memories remain imprinted on the national subconscious — a phenomenon which can be observed in new MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) polling ahead of next month’s German elections.
When voters go to the polls on 23 February, the country will be noticeably split along the lines of the former West and East Germany, with the latter dominated by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the former by the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party (CDU/CSU).

A keen observer might attribute this difference to East Germany’s past as a Soviet satellite state, but this would only tell half the story. In last summer’s state elections, 38% of those aged 18-24 in Thuringia voted for the AfD, while in neighbouring Saxony the figure was 31%. In both regions, the AfD’s vote share within this age group increased by at least 11%, making it the most favoured party among young Germans. Across the region, one-third of Germans under the age of 34 voted for the AfD.
These young Germans have no living memory of communist times, yet they appear to be the ones most attracted to the AfD. The trend is also now spilling over into the old West Germany, if last summer’s European Parliament elections are any indication. The AfD’s support increased across nearly every age group, finding its most notable success among young voters. At the 2019 EU elections, one in three voters under the age of 24 backed the Greens, while the AfD captured only 5% of the youth vote. By 2024, however, 16% of young voters supported the hard-Right party, bringing it nearly level with the CDU/CSU for the demographic.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is poised to become the next chancellor, might think that he is in a secure position. According to the most recent polls, his party is 10 percentage points (31%) ahead of the AfD (21%), and he no doubt believes the East German trend can be treated as a regional abnormality.
Yet there is a real chance that the “abnormality” is in fact the current high support for the CDU/CSU, as voters look set to flock in ever higher numbers to the AfD. Merz will win the election, but will he be able to form a government? He has vowed to never cooperate with the AfD, which will force him into a coalition with either the Greens or the SPD (or both), making it all but impossible to enact the conservative reforms most Germans clearly want. After all, it is the AfD and the centre-right CDU/CSU which would have a comfortable majority with over 50% of the vote. If Merz fails to meet the expectations of conservative Germans, it is not hard to see where they would turn.
The country is entering its third year in recession, and without a reversal of many of the SPD and Green policies — especially in the energy sector and excessive welfare state — it will be necessary to turn the ship around. It is not clear, however, whether the SPD’s Olaf Scholz or the Greens’ Robert Habeck would agree to reverse their own projects under chancellor Merz. The only party willing to do so is the AfD — but it will remain excluded from government in almost every plausible scenario.
Without an improvement of economic conditions, it is hard to see how the popularity of the AfD will be diminished. Merz could try taming the party by entering into a coalition and thereby arresting its rise. If he waits until the next elections, it may be too late.
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SubscribeTaleb al-Abdulmohsen identified with the noticeably irreligious Alternative für Deutschland, which does best in some of the most secular places on Earth. Right-wing populists have no interest in answering Islam with a return to structured daily prayer, to the setting aside one day in seven, to fasting, to almsgiving, to pilgrimage, to the global community of faith as the primary focus of personal allegiance and locus of personal identity, to the lesser outward and greater inward struggle, to the need for a comprehensive and coherent critique both of capitalism and of Marxism, to the coherence between faith and reason, and to a consequently integrated view of art and science. On the contrary, their blanket opposition to immigration would prevent the re-Christianisation of the West. If they are social conservatives, then they have an entirely Boomer or Generation X understanding of what they wanted to conserve. And we now see just how dangerous they are.
In reply to David Lindsay, and despite the well-publicised ‘conversation’ of Ayaan Hirsi Ali, the answer to one faith espousing a medieval world view isn’t another.
That’s not to say that Christianity doesn’t have some benefits in terms of social structures and “peace of mind” but pretending that the 21st century world can be changed by a reversion to a particular mindset is mere wishful thinking.
Humans are spiritual creatures – note: not at all just concerned with “outward struggle”, a common fallacy among those who don’t understand atheism – but the tendency to systematise beliefs into doctrines which then become authoritarian has now been seen for what it is, and there’s no going back. Our existence in the universe occurred entirely by chance; coming to terms with that can be done, but only if we can mature as a species beyond the need for religion.
Lancashire lad , it seems to me your opinions are remarkably unpopular . That should tell you something.
Watched the Bloomberg interview with Alice Weider. She’s forthright and impressive, a welcome change from the evasive technocrats who have been the norm in Germany for far too long.
The wind is changing in Europe at long last.
You do have to wonder whether the GDR would have done better to keep it’s independence. In the 11 month period between the fall of the SED regime and re-unification with the FRD, the East quickly developed a viable multiparty democratic system. Admittedly West Germany pumped huge quantities of free money into the East, which is a gifthorse no-one would be inclined to turn down, but in the long-term most parts of the Eastern bloc (Poland, Lithuania, Lativa, Estonia, Czechia etc.) have all done economically well without such a huge injection – East Germany could have done just as well. And of much greater importance, the East wouldn’t have had to submit to the self-destructive multicultural orthodoxy of the Western establishment.
Sie waren und sind ein Volk.
Poland had injection of money too IIRC.
I suppose the question for Merz and the CDU is whether or not they take the steady rise of AfD support as a signal to rework some of their failed economic policies or just double down and launch scare rockets about the ‘far Right’ (because it’s worked a treat for the Left elsewhere).
The Dem’s elite brain trust refused to alter course and foundered on a self-made reef of lawfare and lies while Trump was easily carried over the finish line by a wave of Americans that included former Dem supporters in the blue collar and minority camps.
Trudeau had nothing in his sock drawer that could pull Canada’s Liberals out of their nose dive yet the best solution they can come up with is to replace his brilliant “budgets balance themselves” financial acumen with the man that has been his economic advisor. That, and use state-financed media to warn disgruntled, over-taxed and cash-strapped voters that the opposition Conservative Poilievre is a Trump clone. So far the dismal poll results haven’t budged.
So the masterminds that run Unherd think it’s just fine to block people from replying to other comments. Let’s be clear. I am here for the comment section. So are many others. Keep effing with it and I’m gone. If you block this comment, I am gone.
Similar feelings JV, and that’s despite being able to reply to your comment!
I can do so using my phone, but not my laptop, which is strange, and leads me to suspect it’s a technical glitch rather than ‘policy’.
However, i pointed this out to admin three days ago, and still not sorted. Have to conclude they’re skimping on techies to help run the show (a bit like the NHS!) and therefore the conclusion is the same.
Liam S
Yes an interesting point. In fact a solution to the “German Problem” was once proposed (1950s) for there to be the two German states with both demilitarised and neutral.
Naturally Adenauer opposed it, but it probably would’ve been very much in Britain’s best interests. Of course Adenauer was no friend of Britain.
Thanks for the info Lancashire Lad. Sounds like a glitch. Weird, I’m using my phone and I can’t reply to comments.
Apologies to the author for an unrelated comment – but like others – I am getting frustrated at the lack of communication about the Reply functionality in the Comments. It would be good if some honest informative statement could be made on the site. Of course “Stuff happens”, but it’s how you deal with it that matters.
The biggest problem with the AfD is that they are “pro-Russia”. While that remains the case, they must be fought. I hanker for the days when the European Right (and the American Right, for that matter) hated the Russians. We need to get back to that position.