As with many political movements, MAGA represents a fragile coalition of groups that often have little in common — and, at the extremes, may even detest one another.

This tension has been brought into clearer focus by Trump’s recent exemption of tech products from tariffs, a decision likely influenced by the oligarchs in the President’s corner. After all, firms like Apple depend largely on Chinese manufacturers, while Wall Street investors still see the Middle Kingdom as a potential source of future profits. In contrast, smaller firms — such as those who import toys or furniture —enjoy no such protection.

Clearly, the tariff proposals are far less popular than Trump’s moves on such things as the border, gender and the crackdown on universities. Indeed, tariffs are opposed by most Americans and are clearly eroding his support base even as many back protecting US manufacturing.

It is too early to see the impact of tariffs on ordinary people, but it’s not hard to see that higher prices for household utensils, clothing and even food are likely to affect them. Perhaps most disruptive will be the cost of imported cars — a mainstay of many families — which could rise several thousand dollars. Inflation did much to undermine Biden’s Administration, and Trump could suffer a similar fate.

Of course, these exemptions might be mitigated over time as companies adjust to domestic manufacturing or even break their dependency on China. Some companies — such as Nvidia — are already responding by promising to build up to $500 billion worth of artificial intelligence infrastructure in the US over the next four years. The problem, though, may be timing; it takes three to five years to build a new semiconductor plant, and the results may not be felt for several more.

Nevertheless, with these exemptions, Trump risks appearing as though he is giving preferential treatment to his wealthy donors. In theory, this should provide an opening for Democrats. Trump’s great achievement over the last decade has been to win over working-class voters; for the first time in decades, Americans are more likely to identify the GOP with the people than the Democrats. But Trump’s polling on his handling of the economy — a proxy for tariffs — is now underwater, and the Democrats have an opportunity to reassert themselves as the party of common sense.

To accomplish this, the Democrats need to jettison much of their highly unpopular cultural agenda on issues like reparations, transgenderism, climate change and race quotas. Embracing libertarian fantasies about “free trade” is not the answer to public concerns, but making the case for a gradual, step-by-step policy that keeps the economy running through a reindustrialising transition will be more appealing than Trumpian shock therapy.

Essentially, the Democrats can gain back their lost voters by adopting some MAGA themes but with more intelligence and less revanchism. MAGA lacks cohesion, and divisions between oligarchs and plebeians make it highly vulnerable to an intelligent, working-class-oriented alternative.

In his inimitable way, Trump’s erratic and, for now, painful tariff policies are opening the door to reclaiming much of their historic base. Timing matters here because tariff pain means that it will take years to see the benefits of reshoring. But this requires Democrats not becoming neoliberals but more of the old-fashioned kind: one that prioritises the interests and futures of the vast majority of ordinary Americans.

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Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

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