Donald Trump is unlikely to win a popularity contest or an election in America’s deepest blue states. But, ironically, his administration could prove a long term boon to these places, where self-imposed policies are turning them into the caboose of American progress.

To be sure, politicians in declining states like New York, California and Illinois will lament anything Trump does, including many needlessly stupid and cruel acts. But on many levels the Trump regime offers the blue states a way out of their own destructive approach which has chased away businesses and individuals at a staggering rate. No wonder, then, that even some blue state Democrats are questioning their own party’s #Resistance tactics.

Even DOGE and Trump’s assault on the feds is less a problem for blue states than many red ones. Local and state governments in New York, California, Massachusetts and Colorado are far less dependent on transfers from Washington than deep red Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Alaska. The pain may be greater in the Appalachian hollows than in the urban centres.

Perhaps the biggest Trump influence, though, will be on issues like climate change — a major factor in blue state decline. Wherever Net Zero has been adopted, it has raised energy, housing and building costs. We already see some backtracking in California, where nuclear and natural gas plants are being kept past their supposed termination. At the same time, Trump’s removal of EPA regulations may also help relieve cost pressures too.

There are some potential opportunities for Massachusetts, New York and particularly California in the space and high-tech defence sector, where the Trump administration has encouraged investment. California retains the strongest array of space, aerospace, missile, and drone companies, which should thrive under Trump. Meanwhile, the “defence bros” may be powerful in Texas, but leading edge firms, such as Anduril in Orange County and Palantir in blueish Colorado, also could be big beneficiaries of a shift to tech-based warfare.

Another key Trump break could come in housing. Trump officials are looking at allowing leases for housing on federal lands. The federal government is the nation’s biggest landowner, holding a third of all property — an area six times that of California. In Las Vegas, Phoenix, Albuquerque, and other metro areas, federal lands brush up against the suburban periphery. In California, the federal government owns roughly half of all state land, including properties on flat land near cities. Considering that urbanisation covers only 5.3% of the state’s land, Newsom could make inroads here — with federal assistance.

This would not be the first time a Right-wing regime has benefited progressive areas. Ronald Reagan, not particularly fond of New Yorkers and they of him, ended up establishing an alliance with New York Mayor Koch. His free market policies helped spark New York’s remarkable 1980s financial boom and its recovery as the epicentre of American culture and lifestyle.

Of course, we can never expect blue state politicians to praise Trump, but some are echoing his themes. This includes the chameleon Governor Newsom in California, who now is pivoting towards the centre ahead of a likely presidential run in 2028. At the same time, voters have been turning away progressive district attorneys in such places as Alameda, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, which even elected a Republican to the post. The vibe shift is clearly real.

Rather than spend their time screaming about Trump’s list of idiocies and provocations, blue state leaders should instead look into how their states can benefit from other aspects of his policy. Sometimes a hated enemy can prove a surprising friend.

---

Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

joelkotkin

---