January 12, 2025 - 1:00pm

Much of the grooming gang debate concerns the ethnicity of the perpetrators, with some figures suggesting that around 80% are Muslims of Pakistani origin. Yet other figures suggest that Pakistanis are not overrepresented in child sexual abuse. What is the truth of the matter?

The best evidence we have on the ethnic make-up of grooming gangs comes from a 2020 paper by Kish Bhatti-Sinclair and Charles Sutcliffe. The academics collected data on prosecutions of these gangs between 1997 and 2017 by reviewing over 2,000 media reports. They identified 498 accused perpetrators, of whom 83% had Muslim names. This figure is consistent with two earlier analyses, one by the academic Ella Cockbain and one by the now-defunct think tank Quilliam.

Bhatti-Sinclair and Sutcliffe also carried out an analysis of British local authorities. They found that the Pakistani share of the local population was even more strongly associated with the rate of prosecutions for grooming gang offences than was the Muslim share. They also found that the Bangladeshi share was not associated with the rate of prosecutions. This led them to conclude that most perpetrators are Muslims of Pakistani origin. Note that there are three main ethnic groups in Britain with a high percentage of Muslims: Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Arabs.

As Bhatti-Sinclair and Sutcliffe observed in their paper, “group-based localised child sexual exploitation” (the technical term for grooming gangs) is a sub-category of child sexual abuse. This raises the question of whether Pakistanis are overrepresented among those prosecuted for child sexual abuse in general.

According to a recent report by the Centre of Expertise on Child Sexual Abuse (CSA), Pakistanis comprise only 2% of those prosecuted for child sexual abuse in 2022. Since they make up 2.7% of the population of England and Wales, this would suggest they are not overrepresented. However, the figures reported by the CSA refer to all sub-categories of child sexual abuse, including less serious offences such as those relating to indecent images. It is therefore worth asking what we know about perpetrators of the most serious offences.

In March last year, the Government published data on prosecutions for indictable offences during the years 2020–2023. These data can be broken down by offence and ethnicity. The three most serious offences of interest are “Rape of a female aged under 16”, “Rape of a female child under 13 by a male”, and “Sexual assault of a female child under 13 – penetration”. Of the individuals prosecuted for these offences in the years 2021–2023 with known ethnicity, 7.2% were Pakistani. This means that Pakistanis were overrepresented but by much less than in grooming gangs. (Data from 2020 were excluded, owing to the low number of prosecutions during the pandemic.)

Incidentally, the dataset also includes convictions. Of those convicted of the three offences in question, 4.7% were Pakistani. So Pakistanis were again overrepresented but by much less than in grooming gangs.

A major caveat is that ethnicity is “not stated” for 32% of the 3,585 individuals prosecuted. If Pakistanis are overrepresented among those for whom ethnicity is “not stated”, they would be even more overrepresented among all those prosecuted. On the other hand, if the ethnic distribution of those for whom ethnicity is “not stated” is the same as the ethnic distribution of those with known ethnicity, they would not be.

It is worth noting that the issue of missing ethnicity is not specific to the three offences in question. When it comes to “Fraud by false representation”, for example, the percentage for whom ethnicity is “not stated” is even higher. In other words, missing ethnicity is a general issue with the data, rather than one only affecting serious or “politicised” offences.

Ethnic makeup of prison population matches prosecutions data

There is some indication that the ethnic distribution of those with missing ethnicity might be similar to the ethnic distribution of those with known ethnicity. The Government publishes a broad ethnic breakdown of the prison population and here the number with missing ethnicity is only 1%. If ethnic minorities are more likely to have missing ethnicity in the prosecutions data, they should be comparatively overrepresented in the prison data. However, there is no evidence of this.

Asians and black people are marginally underrepresented in the prison data. Mixed individuals are neither under nor overrepresented. Whites and individuals from “Other” ethnicities are marginally overrepresented. Of course, this is a somewhat crude comparison, so shouldn’t be given too much weight. (Individuals with missing ethnicity are excluded. Indictable-only offences are the most serious and hence most likely to result in a prison sentence.)

Are the prosecutions data consistent with Bhatti-Sinclair and Sutcliffe’s findings? The two academics identified 498 accused perpetrators from 1997–2017, of which roughly 80% were Pakistanis. This equates to 19 Pakistanis prosecuted for grooming gang offences per year, though not all were prosecuted for the most serious offences. According to the prosecutions data, 175 Pakistanis were prosecuted for the most serious offences from 2021–2023, which equates to 58 per year. The two datasets therefore seem consistent, given that some of the most serious offences for which Pakistanis were prosecuted will have occurred outside the context of grooming gangs.

Two further caveats are in order. Pakistanis may be less overrepresented than expected because the authorities are still reluctant to prosecute grooming gangs for fear of appearing “racist” — though this may be less of an issue since 2014 — or because offences within the community are less likely to be reported. Also, the prosecutions data relate to the most recent period and it’s possible that Pakistanis were more overrepresented in the past.

Evidence suggests that Muslims of Pakistani origin are massively overrepresented in grooming gangs, though other Muslims do not appear to be. Regarding the most serious offences relating to child sexual abuse, the evidence is less clear. What we can say is that, among those prosecuted for such offences with known ethnicity, Pakistanis are overrepresented, but by much less than in grooming gangs.


Noah Carl is an independent researcher and writer.

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