July 22, 2024 - 7:00am

Had Joe Biden remained the Democrats’ presidential candidate, the party would have faced the prospect of a loss, even a drubbing, in November’s election. But with the President’s withdrawal from the race today, Democratic grandees have been left — most likely, if Biden’s endorsement is anything to go off — with the similarly unpopular Vice President, Kamala Harris.

While she may inject some youth into the ticket, she has a poor track record appealing to voters outside the one-party state of California. But if a second Donald Trump presidency is inevitable, perhaps the Democrats should see defeat not as “the end of democracy”, as is too often asserted, but instead as the spark for a much-needed political makeover.

Here’s the scenario that could soon unfold. Dependent on the black American caucus and the progressive Left, Harris will surely cling to Biden’s largely unpopular agenda. If anything, she is more eager than the President to embrace California-style craziness. She will push for a ban on new gas leases and propose mandates for electrical vehicles, while imposing national rent control, forgiveness of college debt, and initiatives for slavery reparations.

This could be bad news for Democrats in the long run. Given that only 15% of their voters see themselves as “very liberal”, many would exit the party in disgust. A loss to Trump, however, could force a necessary internal reevaluation — one that could lead to the kind of revival that brought the New Democrats and Bill Clinton to office three decades ago on a pro-growth, culturally moderate platform.

In contrast, one may have some pity for Trump if he inherits the throne. Unlike Biden, who came to power as the economy was rebounding from the Covid-19 pandemic, Trump will gain control as the economy starts slowing down. Indeed, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, once seen as the Democrats’ favourite banker, has warned that inflation and interest rates will remain high, which will hamper the incoming president.

Voters tend to blame the current officeholder rather than those actually most responsible for hard times. Even our most skilled politicians — Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama — suffered early defeats as their policies failed to turn around in time before they left office. The Democrats won big in 1982, two years after the Reagan landslide, gaining 26 House seats. Similarly, Republicans trounced the Democrats in the 1994 midterms, two years after Clinton’s first victory, while in 2010 Obama suffered a similar rejection.

Some Democrats, such as Washington Monthly editor Bill Scher, still thought that they could win even with an enfeebled Biden, in part because they see — despite all evidence to the contrary — an “excellent economy”. This may seem wonderful for those who own large stockholdings or thrive as “Beltway bandits”, but this is not the reality experienced by most Americans, including young people and minorities.

Facing reality is the first step to a political recovery. This is what the Republicans did in the Fifties under Dwight Eisenhower and later under Richard Nixon and Reagan, recasting their appeal beyond the old country-club base. Indeed, the Republicans seem to be trying this again with Trump opting for J.D. Vance as his running mate, attempting to win over the “forgotten” Americans from former industrial heartlands. Clinton did much the same with the New Democrats, winning back suburban working-class voters and even some Southern “bubbas”.

With the Biden administration unravelling and embracing progressivism, Democratic voters are heading in the opposite direction. This was evident in the defeat of Left-wing Congressman Jamaal Bowman in a recent New York Democratic primary. Other progressives have been soundly whipped in local races, mostly by other Democrats in cities from Portland and Seattle to San Francisco. There is also growing interest, at least for a vice-presidential pick, in moderate governors such as Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro or Kentucky’s Andy Beshear.

A defeat in November, then, even a cataclysmic one, could work to the Democrats’ advantage. By using the loss as a chance to vanquish the Left, the party could focus instead on the continued economic woes of constituencies it is now losing. By reclaiming the working class, minorities and young voters, Democrats could take the first steps to recovering political power.


Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

joelkotkin