May 28, 2024 - 7:00am

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an address from the charred ruins of a Kharkiv publishing house, encouraging world leaders to attend his “global peace summit” in Switzerland next month and thereby “show who in the world really wants to end the war”.

Russia has not been invited, after Zelensky ruled out talks with Moscow while its troops occupy Ukrainian territory. However, two world leaders were singled out by name as musts for the guest list: Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, both of whom Zelensky urged to come and “show (their) leadership in advancing peace”.

Although Zelensky claimed that 80 countries have already confirmed their attendance, these two leaders are the most important — and indeed the least likely — to take part. While the US may be Ukraine’s largest backer in its defensive war against Russia, it has not signalled who or at what level it will be represented, with Biden caring so little about the opportunity to visibly stand with Ukraine that he has chosen to attend a Hollywood campaign fundraising dinner instead. No matter how faithfully Zelensky strives for peace, the closer we get to November, the more he will find that the US presidential election campaign overshadows his efforts, whether in terms of the US government’s focus or the international media’s interest.

For his part, Xi is perhaps the one leader with any influence over Vladimir Putin, but he’s clearly using the summit as an opportunity to benefit Russia’s President and ensure him a place at any negotiating table. Yesterday, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson refused to comment on reports that Beijing would send only a low-level delegation and noted that China will “support an international peace conference held at a proper time that is recognised by both Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation of all parties”. This comes after China and Brazil threw their weight behind the rival idea of an international summit at which Moscow would be permitted to participate.

While the Russian government may not be invited to June’s event, it is doing all it can to make its presence felt. While Zelensky may have chosen the backdrop of a still smouldering printing works for his address so as to provide a shocking demonstration of the impact of Russian aggression, it also served as a symbol of the perilous situation in which Ukraine finds itself. He used the same address to warn that “Russia is preparing for offensive operations 90 kilometres northwest from here”, raising the question of whether Ukraine can truly expect Russia to offer a peace deal when it has Kiev’s forces on the defensive on the battlefield. Having put its economy on a war footing and with the prospect of Donald Trump potentially returning to the White House shortly, Russia has no incentive to consider peace now.

That may explain why Moscow is endeavouring to throw the forthcoming summit into disarray. Last week, Russian sources told Reuters that Moscow is willing to freeze the conflict along the current frontlines, having made sufficient gains to sell it to the Russian people as a victory. Meanwhile, asked about peace talks on Friday, Putin replied: “Let them resume”. However, these signs were, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, “phoney signals” intended to derail the June summit. As such, any future bids by Ukraine to unify global opinion around a peace plan are likely to be subject to similar Russian feints aimed at distracting from and undercutting Ukrainian efforts.

The difficulties in getting negotiations up and running have long been apparent, with the warring parties remaining poles apart on key issues. Moscow has claimed that Ukraine must recognise the “new territorial realities” represented by its battlefield gains, dismissing Zelensky’s peace formula calling for the return of annexed territories. However, as Ukraine struggles to head off Russian offences on the battlefield, the US government becomes consumed by its forthcoming election, and Moscow prepares for a significant summer offensive, the time has never been less propitious for a peace deal.


Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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