December 18, 2023 - 4:00pm
“Survive until ‘25”. That has become the mantra among owners and lenders in the commercial real estate sector. Keep the lights on until 2025 and wait for the cavalry of easier money and a resurgent economy to appear on the horizon. Until then, amid low occupancy and cash burn from high interest rates, wait for rates to come down and for people to return to the office and shopping centres.
Commercial real estate, including multi-family residential real estate, has come to occupy a significant place in large investment portfolios, particularly among private equity and pension funds, which like it for the steady income streams resulting from rents. But the sector has run into difficulty of late. Although the closure of office and retail spaces during the pandemic emptied out city cores, there was initially some expectation that the slump would last only for the duration of the lockdowns. Yet the work-from-home practice has proved tenacious — popular among workers, especially more senior ones, but even with some managers, who are looking to make savings on rental costs.
There remains some debate as to whether the new trend will last. Many are the voices saying that the cooling of the job market will weaken the ability of employees to withstand calls to return to the office. Meanwhile, some economists maintain that WFH is bad for productivity, and that sooner or later firms will be able to make everyone return to their desks — bringing secondary benefits to the CRE holders in the retail ecosystem supporting offices, from sandwich shops to pubs.
One might not want to bank on that, though. Stanford University’s Nick Bloom has been studying work-from-home patterns for years and is convinced that the productivity gains outweigh the losses, while vacancy rates appear to have stabilised at higher levels. In London and the US, office vacancy rates remain at 20-year highs, and new activity is drying up. As a result, not only are revenues down, but so too are the valuations of properties.
So far, none of this has amounted to much. Unlike ordinary residential or shop leases, large leases on commercial real estate run for years, with large tenants sometimes holding leases that run up to 10 years. As for valuations, in such an illiquid market owners can keep a property on the books at above-market value in the hope that prices will return to their previous levels before long. That has enabled investors to defer any potential pain for the time being.
Nevertheless, the longer things continue as they are, the more worry will build. That’s because there is a high degree of leverage in the sector. Borrowing to invest in a property that yielded a steady if unspectacular dividend stream made sense in the days when credit was all but free. But the sharp rise in interest rates over the last year has left the market vulnerable. The mini-crisis among US regional banks earlier this year demonstrated just how much this segment of the financial sector, for instance, was exposed to commercial real estate.
So investors may now be feeling some relief, as central banks appear to be signalling that the days of easy money may come back next year. That’s the cavalry they’ve long awaited. But if for any reason central banks aren’t able to deliver rate cuts as quickly as markets currently anticipate, the next couple years could see things darken. Not a crash, perhaps, but a rolling series of mini-crises similar to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse earlier this year, giving regulators and investors quite a few sleepless nights.
John Rapley is an author and academic who divides his time between London, Johannesburg and Ottawa. His books include Why Empires Fall: Rome, America and the Future of the West (with Peter Heather, Penguin, 2023) and Twilight of the Money Gods: Economics as a Religion (Simon & Schuster, 2017).
jarapley
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SubscribeThis is another classic decision by the authorities that defies logic and sanity to anyone possessing an ounce of common sense. If the perpetrator is essentially a biological male possessing all the functions that come with such a thing, and a sex offender at that, why has he been allowed to be accommodated alongside the most vulnerable women in the country?
How have the great and the good and the institutions they serve allowed these travesties to happen?
”why has he been allowed to be accommodated alongside the most vulnerable women in the country?”
You are as woke as the Police doing this insanity.
It takes a lot to get real time in HM Prison System – they do not yet lock you up for being a scared, frail, helpless, victim. ‘Most Vulnerable women in the country’ OMG!!!
I guess you have bought into the current agenda than when a crime has been committed the true victim was the one who did it – because society must have really harmed them that they turned to crime…. haha – woke sheep…
Most of these women have had hard, poor starts in life. Many are victims of domestic violence and abuse. Most of these women are in for petty crimes like shoplifting or TV licence evasion. Men are more likely to be in for sex crimes or violence.
Most of these women … Many … Most of these women.. are in for petty crimes like shoplifting or TV licence evasion. And other crimes, right?
Come off it mate. Major category error in your thinking there. Prisoners can simultaneously be aggressive and vulnerable, with chronic low self-esteem and substance-abuse issues. Don’t confuse civility with vulnerability.
The issue is not that the women in prison aren’t vulnerable people, it’s the assertion that they’re the most vulnerable women in the country.
Perhaps he means “physically vulnerable” on average compared to men and also in a confined space?
“the most vulnerable women in the country?”
Are you here talking about the women in prison, who might possibly be victims of injustice, but surely not the majority of inmates, who have committed crimes. You really cannot think of any women who might be more vulnerable?
Prisons are full of people who are vulnerable. An awful lot of them have experienced trauma & abuse in their early childhood. This can often lead them towards addictions & ultimately breaking the law. Whilst not excusing the crimes they may have committed, it goes a long way towards explaining it.
So yes, there would have been vulnerable women in prison.
“the most vulnerable women in the country?”
The most vulnerable women in prison is the issue, not some. Of course there would be vulnerable women in prison, but not the most vulnerable in the country.
While I certainly don’t hate men wishing to pass as women and even wanting to be referred to as women, I certainly find the attitude of Sussex police to be stupid, dishonest and even hateful in this instance. Whatever the desire of the perpetrator in this case they should certainly not attempt to pass off a crime committed by a man as one committed by a woman. How can we trust anything emanating from Sussex police while they persist in this charade?
Next – a pedophile identifying as a child so being sent to Juvenile Prison?
How about one of the Prison guards showing up to work in those massive prosthetic Breasts the Canadian shop teacher was wearing? How about the prisoner in this story demands a pair of them as that is how he identifies….
Let us pray a hard Right wave is building and will wash out all the insane idiots like these, who are out to destroy society. The new Italian PM gave a speech on family and men and women which has totally swept the internet. Here on Unherd she was sneered at a bit – but she is the coming wave, it is just building. Next it is time for parents to re-take the schools and get the destructive woke out of them – as is sweeping USA Now. Mothers are politically mobilized in mass, and taking back the schools across USA. here is an old one, on Rumble, and ‘Bannon’s War Room’ this is always an ongoing story on this phenomenon.
The Revolt Of America’s Moms: A Mother’s Day Special Cont.
https://rumble.com/v13vqyn-episode-1840-the-revolt-of-americas-moms-a-mothers-day-special-cont..html
Just to add that some gender ‘experts’ state that a paedophile is a minor attracted person!!! Mind boggling.
Yes, this is now well known, along with campaigns in some quarters to get the age for gender self id reduced. Frightening
I apologise for calling you woke in a comment on another article a few days ago.
I see after Braverman criticised the Sussex tweet it has been deleted.
Quite right too. But not enough.
Braverman and the Justice Secretary need to ensure men like this go to men’s prisons. If they need a special wing to protect them from the general run of male inmates, so be it. But they have no business being with vulnerable women. That they are placed in women’s prisons is, frankly, obscene.
…and maybe sack the senior police officer for a clear lack of judgment.
Pour encourager les autres!
Sussex Police are just wrong on every level but so is the MoJ for pandering to the Stonewall ideology.
As for Dixon, the simplest way to deal with descriptions is to describe Dixon in his male identity for his crimes, as he committed them, as a male-identifying, male. If we want to acknowledge that Dixon now wishes to identify as a female, that is fine also.
Doesn’t get Dixon into a female prison though.
Exactly right.
These are the fruits of the Progressive Left’s Long March through the Institutions. While we slept, they have been quietly infiltrating their placemen into senior roles in the police, the civil service, the NHS, and a thousand quangos, public bodies and institutions.
It’s straight from the Frankfurt School’s 1930s playbook. So effective has it been that many of these people don’t even realize where they acquired their opinions and progressive outlook.
Think I’m paranoid? Then please explain the behaviour of Sussex Police in a more plausible way.
“Think I’m paranoid? Then please explain the behaviour of Sussex Police in a more plausible way.”
Hanlon’s Razor.
That is a hypothesis of course. My one question; is the ‘long march’ is from deliberate intent or from what I call ‘ideology drift’ (as in genetic drift in a population) on the part of the “progressive Left”?
A person with a p***s, convicted of sex crimes committed with that p***s, has been locked up with people with vaginas. Even when you cloak it in trans-friendly terminology, it’s deeply shocking.
Not so long ago it was reported that Scottish Police would log a rape carried by someone who self identified as a woman as a crime carried out by a woman even if the rape was penetrative by a p***s. If convicted that person would go to a woman’s prison. It is a rapist’s charter.
I don’t know how often that happens or if it is still the case.
It’s looking like gender self-identity is already here despite the law. In this case the police are accepting it and from other reports it seems that companies and other organisations are accepting it too.
Thank you for your service to Clown World, Essex Police!! It’s great to know that whether the offender has a d*ck is not relevant in rape cases. We can probably also safely assume that having a weapon is not a relevant factor in weapons related crimes.
I identify as unarmed therefore I could not have shot anyone.
I identify as rich so had no need to rob the corner shop.
I identify as innocent, you can’t send me down
The Police College interpretation seems to be at odds with the law, removing those in charge and replacing them with
un indoctrinated adults would be a great start to combating this madness.
The Crimes were committed by a man . He was a man when he committed the crimes.
So for the police to claim the crimes were committed by a woman is wrong-and silly.
PS: He’s still a man. And he will die as one.
It’s like waking up into a world where everyone else has gone crackers.
Why the devil does my newspaper, the Telegraph, refer, when giving a full account of this matter, refer to the male perp as ‘she’?
Time for extreme measures. The UK police force should be disbanded. We can use the money saved to start again.
Begin a new force with veterans from the Household Division and the Parachute Regiment for starters.
They and they alone, have the courage,, discipline and esprit de corps to produce a really first class Police Force, in total contrast to the existing rabble.
Not that your ridiculous suggestion has any merit, but if you’re starting again then you need to disband 52 police forces. That’s just England.
Am I being ridiclous? The modern police force do not perform the function for wich they were created, which, in case we have forgotten, is the prevention of crime..
Kemi B please come forward and sort this mess out!!!
The illiterate tweet quoted in the third paragraph tells you everything, doesn’t it?
What laws need to be repealed to stop this?
None. The College of Policing needs its wings clipped. It’s gone off-piste with its policies.
Thank goodness we’ve got a Home Secretary who isn’t afraid of the Blob.
*Cottage of Policing.
The only cure for insanity is more insanity. We need more insane cases like this to unwoke the gender wokes. Until they directly suffer the consequence of their own insanity nothing will change.
The rot set in when they legalised a lie. Viz you can change gender & get a new birth certificate in your new gender. Factually this isn’t true. If you were born in one gender & wish to transition to another one, by all means you should be free to do so.
But somewhere confidential there should be a record of your previous life, particularly if you committed serious crimes in the previous gender.
It’s known that some sex offenders have tried this to find a way round the fact that they are in the register for life.
All in all, it’s madness.
Well there is one way women prisoners can get rid of the males in their prisons – I predict a riot?
Why put Dixon, who does not even have a Gender Recognition Certificate and is therefore male *in law* as well as body, in a women’s prison?(my asterisks)
Well, yes. In law sex is biology. Hence to access certain features of society that are gated by the law, an individual has to be regarded by the law as having a ‘passport’ to access those features. Hence a GRC legal fiction, so that the individual is regarded only in law as belonging to a sex category to which they do not belong in reality.
EHRC guidance does allow for certain individuals to be denied access to a particular prison estate when it is proportionate and legitimate to do so. So I am unsure what the policy is here; … Ministry of Justice (MoJ) in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to overturn its policy to allocate high risk trans-identified prisoners, including sex offenders, to female prisons.
Women hoisted on their own petard.
The law of unintended consequences.