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December 27, 2024 - 11:00am
New polling has found that public willingness to support Ukraine until victory has slumped over the past year across seven European nations. Whether we call it fatalism, pragmatism or merely fatigue, it is a sense shared by the countries’ leaders. With the US preparing to force Kyiv into negotiations, Europe is ready to stand by.
The most fundamental issue is that, if called upon to replace US weaponry to Ukraine, Europe simply could not make up the shortfall. While the continent has collectively allocated more aid over the course of the war than the US, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself recently admitted that Ukraine will “lose” the war if the US cuts supplies of arms.
To some extent, this is the fault of Europe itself. Analysis in May found that, without the US, an annual contribution of approximately 0.5% of GDP by European Nato members to Ukraine’s defence would have allowed Kyiv to maintain a defensive stalemate, while double that would have supported the restoration of Ukrainian land. Yet, by November, only a few nations had reached that minimum level, with defence production having also not expanded sufficiently to supply Ukraine.
It is not as though Europe lacked warnings that America might not always prove reliable. There was the blockage to aid in the US Congress and the clear possibility that Trump would return to the White House, eager to kick off negotiations. While asking Europe to match American military might is a big ask, the continent failed to meet expectations even on a smaller scale, with the million shells promised by the EU to Kyiv hit by delays and shortfalls caused by unexpected production capacity limits.
Europe not only lacks America’s capacity but also its unity as a single country: continental efforts to arm Ukraine are beset by the inevitable divisions between nations pursuing their own interests. On 18 December — just one month before Trump’s inauguration — Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte invited Zelensky and European leaders including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to collectively “brainstorm” ideas for assisting Kyiv. Yet, despite all attendees being supporters of Ukraine, splits quickly emerged over what to do and how to fund it, with the discussions descending into acrimony.
Even if ideas could meet with approval across Europe, leaders’ domestic political situations are preventing them from focusing on Ukraine. Scholz is awaiting elections in February, French President Emmanuel Macron has suffered a period of turmoil, and Keir Starmer has had a bumpy start as British Prime Minister. While such internal issues could be shrugged off as the natural vicissitudes of healthy democracies, with UK support to Kyiv having survived changes in leadership, weak growth and financial constraints are harder to dismiss. Convincing voters of the value of spending vast amounts to prop up a foreign country indefinitely would always have been challenging. However, unpopular European leaders are now particularly vulnerable.
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SubscribeIt’s not “fatigue”, it’s “bankruptcy” – moral, military and financial bankruptcy.
Moral bankruptcy because the West’s propaganda is looking progressively tattered; the West had to admit that it never intended to implement the Minsk Accords, while still sanctioning Russia for its supposed failure to comply. Moral bankruptcy because it is progressively more difficult to hide the fact that Ukraine is hopelessly corrupt, with much of the money the West is shovelling into the country simply disappearing.
Military bankruptcy because the West simply had neither the amount of arms, nor the quality of arms, nor the ammunition to fight a serious war.
Financial bankruptcy is self-explanatory. We bankrupted ourselves with our idiotic “Covid” policies, and Ursula von der Leyen is raiding every EU kitty for her disastrous Ukraine commitments.
Sending more money to Ukraine, never mind how much, will do nothing for Ukraine. Ukraine is out of soldiers and out of time.
Ukraine isn’t out of soldiers. Most of them are draft dodging in Europe.
Not just dodging, but apparently quite enjoying themselves. I live in Vienna and anytime I go downtown for a drink the bars are crowded with Ukrainians.
Having been a refugee, I find it weird that they can apparently afford to pay 7€ minimum per drink (double or triple that if we’re talking cocktails) and sit there drinking for hours. But then again, the Ukrainians I encounter seem to be very well off (at least judging by the amount of top of the line SUVs with Ukrainian license plates you can see on the streets). Ditto for any major tourist hotspot – I have friends who have traveled a lot since the war and they’ve told me that this seems to be the case across the continent (at least in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Germany & France).
I imagine Zelensky could’ve crowdfunded a couple (dozen) million just from the sale of the luxury cars of the departed.
Maybe that should be his next move; try and impress Trump with his business acumen and get those billions rolling again…
Not to worry! All of the commenters on here supporting Zelensky’s fantasies and the Neocon schemes are happy to go and fight or provide the money for further slaughter and destruction.
However I doubt if they’ll share in the profits from the arms sales and the reconstruction contracts…
The Ukrainian “tourists” will no doubt then be more than pleased to return home. Those killed or maimed…not so much.
Ukraine has enough wealth that it actually matters who controls it. They have significant reserves of natural gas and oil, as well as a significant amount of arable land, probably the most in Europe. They also are a net exporter of fertilizers for industrial farming. I take it I don’t need to explain why American politicians care about that. If there weren’t a significant amount of wealth in Ukraine and a strategic advantage in possessing it, the US wouldn’t have bothered to arm the Ukrainians in the first place nor would they have covertly interfered in Ukrainian politics as far back as the 1990s. It would have been ignored like Syria, Belarus, Georgia, or name basically any country in Africa. I’m not surprised there are wealthy Ukrainians hiding out in Vienna and nobody is saying boo about it, because the parents and families of those Ukrainians are the ones who operate the businesses that are strategically important enough to justify fighting a war in the first place. There were probably wealthy Americans hiding in Vienna in the late 1960’s and I doubt much was said then either.
Thank you for the insightful comment.
I would just like to add that I strongly suspect that this massive migration is actually the one (and probably only) unspoken advantage of this war for Europe – the “unavoidable” brain drain from Ukraine to the EU as a result of this “unprovoked” Invasion.
Ukrainians are generally considered to be less foreign (at least here in Austria) and easier to integrate, boosting falling European population numbers, though it remains to be seen how well they can manage entry into European welfare states and not be a drag through nearly unlimited & quite generous unemployment benefits (after only 6+ months of work), which has shown to be an issue for/with incoming groups from the near East and central Asia in the last 2 decades
I’d like to stress that I don’t have a Problem with the Ukrainians being here per se, just that I don’t see a reason to finance the continued destruction of their Homeland while simultaneously using already overstretched budgets to accommodate them here. Integration costs money (imagine that) and most of them will want to stay in the West (however this ends up turning out), which is why I find the argument that West is/was trying to help quite laughable (as Michael pointed out above).
P.S. the Americans parked the Kurds on top of the most energy rich and best agricultural land for a decade, primarily in order to deny it to Assad and destabilize/impoverish Syria, so I wouldn’t call it ignored, but I take your point.
As Mearsheimer predicted Ukraine has been led down the primrose path to destruction as a proxy in the Neocon attempt to dismember Russia.
It was as predictable as sunrise in the morning.
Mearsheimer as usual spot on, this disaster promoted by the U.S will be the downfall of Europe
You seem utterly oblivious to Russia’s neocolonial expansion and methodology. You need to visit the Baltic Sates, Poland and Finland to understand the situation in Eastern Europe, rather than watching You Tube videos.
From Peter the Great to Catherine the Great, from Stalin to Putin, Russia’s expansionist aims have been clear. Ignore history at your peril.
Read Snyder or Applebaume for details and methodology.
Ia that the Applebaum married to a Neocon…or a different one?
Polish foreign minister.
You are as boring and predictable as Mearsheimer.
Mearsheimer doesn’t hate Ukrainians or Russians, that one of the big differences between him and the neocons, whose boots you keep licking. They hate you too BTW
Your inability to understand that key point is the root of your foolishness
Mearcheimer is an honest man who tells the truth, the neocons are all liars, everyone of them
.
Applebaume haha? The Neocon’s Neocon.
……..and Timothy Syder?
I presume you can read books other than comic strips.
Have you ever visited Poland or the Baltic States or do you just rely on You Tube videos?
I don’t think the Ukrainian war has anything to do with Russian neocolonial expansionism (of which there is no evidence since the fall of the Soviet Union). The Ukraine war is plain and simple a civil war between 2 entities, Russia and Ukraine who go back to the middle ages and the time of the Kiev Rus. i.e. this is a conflict where the west and expansionist NATO should never have put their foot in. It’s not as if Ukraine is some beacon of democracy. Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries on earth (as is Russia). Let them sort it out themselves. Eastern Ukraine to the Russias as that’s what the people there want, and western Ukraine to the current Ukrainian regime (which incidentally suspended their elections). And for heaven sake, let’s hope that NATO stops trying to push east, stops trying to overthrow governments that happen to lean or side with Russia. It’s none of our business and the only thing we get by interfering is eventual defeat, just as in every other war the US has engaged in since the Korean war.
Have you ever asked yourself what would happen if Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia were not members of NATO?
Definitely not, and neither have the other “experts” here, because you are a fool 🙂
It can’t come soon enough.
❝With the US preparing to force Kyiv into negotiations❞ The only force need is to get Putin to negotiate which he will only do if Ukraine surrenders. This will not look much like MAGA and as for the EU as an emergent political bloc, well it would be a joke. Von der Leyen has frequently announced that the EU “stands with” Ukraine, so if Ukraine is defeated then so is the EU.
There a universal law of war
Which always decides who the victor shall.be and that law is
The one who not only replenish their losses in equipment and personnel but actually increases the volumes
Is ALWAYS the winner
Now go back to day one of this war
Who is the most capable of doing so
Ukraine or Russia
Now ask yourself why we in the West have paid a fortune to get to this stage
Now think your Higher energy bills , food inflation overall depreciation of your wealth
Now think of the Politicians and Thier propagandists in the Media who convinced you Ukraine would win
Now think can you spot the Looney
I can
It’s plural your leaders and you for
Believing that the Universal law of war would not apply here
Over the Last 30 yrs The West has entered willingly into Wars all of which have been lost
Why because they forgot the Universal Law of War
Such is a sure fire sign that the days of Western supremacy are fast disappearing into the Annals
Of History
Pride always comes before a fall indeed
However in The Wests case it was mainly Gross Stupidity
It’s hard to imagine what outcome will be acceptable to both sides in this war. But that is no reason not to try to negotiate an end to it. That Joe Biden never did anything to try to bring the war to an end may be the worst among the many disgraces of his presidency.
I’ll note that South Korea is today a shining example of democracy and economic might (although they struggle in areas such as childbirth and authoritarianism on occasion), while North Korea isn’t (no need to elaborate). If East Ukraine falls under Russian sway, then West Ukraine can be made to prosper. May it be so, and may peace prevail upon our suffering world ….
A negotiated peace is no embarrassment to Ukraine. An evil and lawless man like Putin saw the US stressing a desire for more isolationism in the way the US left Afghanistan, so Putin took advantage by attacking Ukraine and its’ capital. Ukraine courageously fought back, pushed the Russian invaders out of Kiev, and in turn inspired the West to unify in support of the defense of its sovereignty and its people. Ukraine even went so far as to occupy land belonging to Russia. And all of this without the West or NATO having to put any boots on the ground or leading to WWIII. And here is Ukraine now, in a good place to be able to demand either a guaranteed security blanket from the West or a membership into NATO for the sake of securing ongoing peace for the whole region and for Ukraine’s own bright future. As for Russia, they must have serious economic problems– the nation has a 27% inflation rate, the economy turned into a wartime economy. Makes me wonder how Putin will fare among the Russian people in being able to stay in power once the war he started is over and the people have to live with the terrible consequences of his actions.
You’re completely delusional, the Ukrainians won’t be joining NATO
You need to stop believing the MSM lies and BS
You must not have read what I wrote. They don’t need to join NATO. They can instead negotiate a security blanket through an agreement from the West that if Ukraine gets invaded by a nation such as Russia, they will come to its defense as they are doing now. And in order so that such as agreement has real teeth, the West needs to supply Ukriane with much-needed weaponry to defend itself. This way, the Russian leadership will never be tempted again to invade Ukraine. If such an agreement is not secured for the long term safety of Ukraine, we will be back to square one in a few years, perhaps under perilous circumstances.
A more honest headline would be ‘Europe’s Ukraine fatigue paves way for giving Putin what he wanted all along.’
I’m all for peace, but not for letting bullies win; all it leads to is even greater bullying.
To which bully do you refer? There are many to choose from…
And when are you personally going to fight to stop them…or is that for others to do?
Russia; the only country that invaded its neighbour unprovoked. No one else is to blame for that!
I’m a bit old for fighting, but no, I’m not Ukrainian. What I can do is help fund Ukraine’s defence and put up with the economic fallout of more vigorously blocking Russia’s trading income.
Unprovoked…as in “not an inch eastwards” then did…not provoked at all…by the organisation that decided to bomb Serbia despite it being no threat to any member…
Yes feel free to fund whomever you like just don’t expect others to or should…let alone be at risk of being on the receiving end of retaliatory bombing…
Don’t be silly! The only things ‘provoking’ Putin were greed, megalomania and nationalism.
Yes, those are totally absent in western societies, especially among the political class….
Quite! Although many may misinterpret your comment
Another silly comment! It is totally irrelevant as it wasn’t the West that invaded Ukraine.
Certainly greed and megalomania but also imperial over-reach…but not Russia’s.
I think you’ll find the invading troops were Russian. However, if you can explain how the West secretly funded them without Russia’s knowledge I’ll bow to your superior knowledge.
You have obviously not understood my comment.
It is the West’s greed and megalomania, and imperial over-reach.
As Trump said some years ago about the USA “we haven’t won a war since 1945″…and nor have they.
It is a classic case of over-stretch which results firstly in violent efforts to maintain the status then secondly retrenchment after the reality that it cannot be achieved has been accepted.
The USA will gradually become isolationist and benefit by doing so. In fact it has already started with Trump’s “Ukraine is Europe’s responsibility”.
But of course Europe, the EU, can’t do it because it isn’t strong enough economically or militarily (and hasn’t the guts either to be honest ) and is weakening itself further by current policies. It will bluster and do nothing but decline…Britain after the Romans left.
Yeas, I got your drift, but the over reaching was Russia trying to take Ukraine quickly without effective planning. The West made no effort to counter Putin’s initial land grab in 2014, i.e. were not reaching at all. When Putin tried his wholesale invasion the West provided arms, making no attempt to control Ukraine other than to limit its ability to use longer-range weapons. In other words, the only thing Putin can possibly claim as overreach is Ukraine’s requests to join EU and NATO, but as neither of these was received with open arms it seems a rather desperate claim.
Of course, if you choose to believe unchallenged the claims and reasoning of a somewhat brutal autocrat at the same time as wilfully ignoring anything outside your chosen world view that is entirely up to you. Personally, I prefer to assess the full body of evidence. Enough! End of conversation.
Local idiots are deaf to arguments.