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Syrians celebrate the flight of Assad. (Credit: Muhammad Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty)
It was the clock tower that settled it. The images of rebels driving around the central square of Homs, its famous clocktower visible, confirmed they had taken the city. This meant they could now sever Damascus from the coastal regions, cutting the Assad regime off from the remaining pockets of support it had outside the capital. It was over.
Right now, the rebels are at Umayyad Square in central Damascus; they have taken control of the State TV while explosions and gunfire can be heard in some neighbourhoods of the capital. These are likely to be bouts of sporadic fighting as pro-Assad militias try to make it to the coast or the Lebanese border.
Escape routes, though, are becoming hard to find. Damascus International Airport is closed, with all flights cancelled. The borders with Lebanon and Jordan are closed. The Syrian government has made no official statement yet, and the location of Assad and his family is unknown (though there are rumours that a plane he was fleeing in may have come down).
Syria is in chaos.
All eyes are now on Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist militant group in Syria that leads the rebel forces. Formed in 2017 through the merger of several factions, including Jabhat al-Nusra — al-Qaeda’s former Syrian affiliate — HTS is a tricky proposition. It emerged from al-Qaeda but it also later fought them. Jolani is educated, sophisticated and politically astute.
He has by all accounts been on a journey since he was dispatched from Iraq with bags of cash to bring jihad to Syria. He seems to recognise that international terror is a busted flush and that political pragmatism and moderation — or at least the avoidance of overt brutality — are the way forward. Reports indicate that when it comes to fusing religion with politics his belief is “the real world has to guide your Islam, that you cannot force your Islam on to the real world”. On parts of Arab social media, he has acquired the nickname “Jolani-Zelensky”.
HTS’s reputation has soared as it has advanced across Syria. Its soldiers would seem to be avoiding civilian casualties for now and are careful not to be seen as an occupying military power. Incredibly, there have — so far — been no reports of old scores being settled. Instead, there is footage of Assad troops surrendering and being set free to go home (the foot soldiers at least) and of peaceful transitions of power at airports, police stations and so on. As one Syria analyst said to me, “I’m surprised we haven’t seen more images of Assad soldiers being lined up and shot, gathered in squares for public executions, minority persecution, displacement and so on.”
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Subscribe“Let’s not forget that not so long ago that its followers were selling foreigners to Islamic State to behead on YouTube”.
One solution to excessive immigration.
“We must pray…” and hope “Jolani is true to his word”…yeh, right!
A faction which was selling Western hostages to behead is certain to be trustworthy and an asset to the West…lol. Just as the Mujahideen, because they were fighting Russia, were praised by the West…until they became Al Qaeda and murdered thousands of US citizens in New York.
The West believes it is using these people. The reality is the total opposite. As for the normal people in these countries who just want to go about their lives, they don’t matter to either side.
Alot of bitterness there, because your friend Putin and Iran are on the losing end. Assad had to go, plain and simple, him and his crony family and the minority Alawite sect have been there long enough. They were a brutal and nasty bunch, milking the country and oppressing the majority of Syrians for far too long. Like Saddam, he had to go. HTS has radical roots, but people evolve and so far they are being reasonable. Besides, one man’s freedom fighter is another man’s terrorist, it’s always been the case with revolutions.
No bitterness whatsoever nor any friendship for Putin or Iran.
My concern is that the West is playing a very poor geopolitical game. In its desperate attempt to destroy Russia it has firstly allowed China to “rise”, an extremely poor move, secondly driven Russia into the China camp, even worse, and thirdly allowed the rise of extreme Islamism which hates the West…and acts accordingly.
Whatever faults Assad had, he posed no danger to the West. You may recall he was originally feted by the West(wife in Vogue no less…) until he wouldn’t do what he was told.
The US has been without a competent State Department for quite some time, turning on loyal and important allies such as the Saudis and the Israelis, while inexplicably supporting groups like the vile, piratical Houthis and Iran’s retrograde, homicidal Ayatollahs. Withdrawing from Iraq while helping Libya fall to pieces was similar nonsensical, and four years of defacto open borders, after eight years of careless immigration policies, led directly to “Anti-Zionist” protests that came close to becoming another Kristalnacht, even in NYC.
Syria will likely become another Libya, another post colonial mess, run by several vicious warlords now, instead of a single vicious warlord, with the end result yet another massive flood of refugees, some drowning in the Mediterranean, others drowning out the natives of Europe and the UK in their own homelands.
However, an intimidating US President does much for world peace and stability. A waffling, disloyal, or largely absent one will do the opposite. An Administration of the latter type is on its way out, and a more coherent, more decisive one is incoming.
I agree with that, but “for quite some time” means since James Baker…
How do you think the West could have prevented China’s economic ascent ? All China needed to do was start following sensible policies and unleash the potential of its huge population (who are quite entrepreneurial when allowed to be). There was very little we could do about that. Other than sticking tariffs on imports from China. But that would only slightly have slowed things down.
You are continuing to misunderstand Western policy to Russia. No one is trying to “destroy” Russia (in any case, no one can top the Russians when it comes to destroying Russia). Western policy is to *contain* Russia so that it doesn’t export problems and chaos.
You also seem oblivious to the historical and geographical facts that Russia and China are not natural allies and will never construct a lasting alliance.
No they aren’t natural allies…but the West just made them exactly that.
I think you mean the West temporarily made them allies of convenience. Even the duplicitous Yanks can’t make them natural allies.
Christians lived there safely. Whoever funded and trained up the radical Islamic terrorists are the enemies of Christ and of humanity.
That would be Israel who sent them arms and funding while they were fighting Hezbollah
That figures
.
I think it is more correct to simply label those who helped this group to form and be successful as Neoliberal globalists. For now, it is Israel and Turkey that are the winners in this. It was NATO member Turkey that trained the terrorists, but at the behest of the US and ultimately Israel. We do find Netanyahu taking credit for the Israeli air force helping at a decisive moment, and also Biden taking credit for weakening Syria through sanctions, and other actions. So, let’s give those who claim credit the credit they are claiming.
Ultimately, I think Assad is just an unwise guy. He should have made peace with Erdogan as I believe both the Chinese and Russians had suggested. He should have taken the Russian loans when the sanctions impoverished his nation so badly, but apparently didn’t want the strings attached to it. Also, it is my understanding that he removed a lot of the older more determined military leaders that had served his father, and put in guys he felt were more loyal to him, but in the end, most of the military commanders just took money offered as the fully US equipment armed, and fully funded (we should all seek to know who funded them) Jihadists showed up at each city along the way.
So, the ultimately blame probably lies on him for being stubborn and foolish. So, let’s hope that at some point Syria finds it’s way to being a peaceful nation. If history is any measure, it’s probably going to become a hellhole and there will be a ton of people leaving going into Turkey, and they might at some point become hostile to Israel, yet for now, those nations both got what they wished for, so congrats to them! Either way Europe is yet again the big loser on this one, because get ready for more refugees coming to the doorstep of your favorite European nation…
Enemy of my Enemy …. Till the scorpion stings
And before that … the Jews were routed by the Romans and then the Byzantines.
—“Jolani is educated, sophisticated and politically astute”—.
I knew what to expect from Patrikarakos, based on his earlier articles (i.e, nothing balanced or well-argumented).
However, with this glorification of Jolani only because he is not Assad, D.P. has reached a new, unfathomable low.
Very sad…
Not certain it is glorification. The man can be all of those and still a total barbarian, which seems to be probable.
My take was (is) that this is definitely glorification. And I do not expect anything good coming from this, yet another, “regime change”…
Well certainly nothing good will come from it…
That’s for sure…
He probable is all of those things but Patrikarakos should have added ‘psychopath’, just to be clear.
Of course we should hope for the best, but the likelihood is that either Jolani will turn out to have been hiding his true colours to get Western aid, or that he will be pushed in any event by the more radical, death-cult members of his group to implement a Salafist state. Then the Alawite/Shiite militias will appear, and the country will disintegrate into warring regions: Libya is the template.
Hugely impressive reportage from Patrikarakos, whose “on the ground” status makes him the most reliable of any western journo i can think of. Following on from yesterday’s piece by Roussinos, it appears that Assad has fled the scene, while in this article the use of “Damascene” moment is the most pertinent since St. Paul.
We can only hope (and for those who pray, yes pray), that the leadership of this group remain true to their word to be merciful to their former enemies. The upside of this would be unquantifiably positive: for Middle Eastern politics, for religious minorities, for the shores of Europe and for the world. I’d suggest the UN should (for the time being at least) keep it’s nose out and let the dust settle. The author suggests that in Libya, the UN was “too slow to put in place an effective political process”, and whilst he’s right about that country following the downfall of Ghaddafi, a waiting brief might be the better option in Syria. If the various factions can (at long last) manage to secure the peace, conciliation within the country and with its neighbours, it could prove a turning point for the entire region.
Of course, things could easily go badly wrong, and quickly. There’s enough hotheads floating around to melt the desert sand. Perhaps the incoming Trump administration could withhold the “bounty” on Jolani’s head until it becomes more clear what his true intentions are.
The question is to ask is Trump perceptive enough to respond appropriately and sensitively to the situation.
Is that a trick question?
Shed no tears for Bashar al-Assad. But if, as British charities sending aid to Syria have been warned in the past, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is a proscribed terrorist organisation, then how can the expression of support for it be anything other than a criminal offence?
Turkey, the Islamist lynchpin of NATO’s strategic purpose in its own terms, is the force behind this ragbag of Chechens and Uzbeks, Kyrgyz and Uyghurs, Tatars and Bashkirs, Albanians and Afghans.
And which Afghans would those be? Which do you think? #NoToTaliban has been trending today, in righteous protest at the treatment of women in Afghanistan. Yet there seems to be no such concern about Syria. Saddam Hussein won United Nations awards for girls’ education. None will be awarded once, having understandably ignored the Sykes-Picot line, “our” side had marched on to Baghdad.
HTS has pronounced tafkir against Hamas, so we can all see the bigger picture. The Golan Heights, and possibly a bit more, will be ceded to Israel, which gave IS the field hospital there to which Priti Patel tried to divert British public money, leading to her sacking. She is very close to Nigel Farage, who has no apparent position on Syria, although even that is marginally better than all three main parties’ active support for HTS. But shed no tears for Assad, either.
A man should be judged by his deeds. Let us see what Al-Jolani will do.
A man should also be judged by the company he keeps. Putin supported Assad. In fact, I doubt there’s a single decent, humane leader who’s supported by Putin.
We are no doubt now facing chaos in Syria, hopefully not as bad as in Libya or Iraq. There will be many on here who try to blame that all on the West. Russia has interfered just as much in all these countries (at many times more so).
Great post.
I can see that 11( at time of posting) pro Russia clowns are still denying reality.
We know his deeds. We’ve seen what he’s done. He’s been active in Syria for a decade. He’s an uncompromising warlord who has done anything and everything necessary to reach power. Selling hostages for cash? Check. Executing prisoners? Check. Assassinating challengers? Check.
Deep down everyone knows he’s a massive problem. Hope over experience. Prayer rather than face reality. Like Stalin, like the Mujahdeen, our enemy’s friends are often more murderous than our enemies in the long run.
This guy’s ‘deeds’ would indicate that he is a psychopath.
Many of these ISIS and Al Qaeda warlords are. Psychopaths / sociopaths and Cluster B crazies are attracted to the extreme violence and raw power, and the ability to transgress norms. Hence you find them all over warzones, and especially in terror groups. The more violent the group, the more likely the leadership are mainly these sorts of men.
The problem with psychopathy and Cluster B is that they’re not curable. So if this gentleman is in fact one of them (as his past actions would indicate) then he has not changed, because he cannot change. He may have learned some new tactics, including how to run better comms, but he will not be a different man. He’ll be the same monster, with a wider repertoire of comms tactics.
Good point! The problems with psychopathy and/ or Cluster B disorders are often overlooked – mostly because of the fact that not many people, as it seems, are aware of these phenomena.
Yes, but haters of the West and pro islamofascists will claim that he is somehow different.
Just in. Prime Minister Benzion Mileikowsky (Polish name changed to Netanyahu) is now claiming credit for the overthrow. Also, they have captured some of the Syrian land and intend on making it part of the “Greater Israel” project they are conducting. These are indeed strange times we are living in. I hope that all the people in Syria are going to be ok, and I hope when President Trump comes into office that peace breaks out everywhere.
Whatever you say, it is NOT Polish name.
It would not end with y, for a start.
It might be Jewish name from Russia?
Maybe from Russian occupied part of Poland.
Edit: so Polish version would be Mileikowski.
The new bunch say they want a free, united country. Sure, but they haven’t spoken the final clause of the sentence: ‘so long as everyone bows to the power of Islam in whatever way the leader proclaims it to be.
Yes, they are the same islamofascists lot.
They are modernised, of course.
They will give hostages anesthetic, before behading them.
Apparently Al Jolani was deputy leader of IS and the CIA has a bounty of $10M on his head.
So, we have a major “reverse ferret” by the West…
While HTS officially seceded from Al Qaeda in 2016, it remains a Salafi jihadi organization designated as a terror organization in the US, the EU and other countries, with tens of thousands of fighters.
Its sudden surge raises concerns that a potential takeover of Syria could transform it into an Islamist, Taliban-like regime – with repercussions for Israel at its south-western border. Others, however, see the offensive as a positive development for Israel and a further blow to the Iranian axis in the region.
From the Times of Israel
I look forward to Tulsi Gabbards (learned) take on this latest news….
If HTS behave anything like we expect them to, will that not kinda prove Tulsi right?
That’s lovely. but it has nothing to do with the US. Neither this fellow nor anybody else in Syria or the rest of the Middle East should see a dime from the US taxpayers. That’s the lesson America should have learned from Lybia, Iraq, Egypt, Afghanistan etc. Enough time and money has been wasted in the Middle East with very little to show for it. Western diplomats have shown no ability to improve the situation in the region and have as often as not just made things worse. The only sensible thing to do is let these people slaughter one another until they resolve their issues. The only thing we need do is issue a stern warning to whoever is in charge to keep it to themselves or else.
The problem is that turmoil in the region results in Islamic migration to Europe, the last thing needed at the moment.
I take your point, but if we let them in it will be because we chose to.
I can’t simply rock up in the Japan and start living there, they don’t allow that. There is a process, and either I follow it or I am turned away.
I find it exceedingly frustrating that almost all western leaders have recently begun to speak about illegal immigration like it’s a storm system — just a thing happening to us — we can’t control it in any way, we just have to batten down the hatches and make the best of it.
That is risible nonsense, of course. Allow illegals to flood in is a choice. I suggest we develop some backbone and choose not to allow it, irrespective of the bleating and moaning of activists and NGOs, or whatever chaos is erupting in a far off country this week.
There’s money being made by the bleating & moaning activists & NGO’s, it’s an industry.
Great post.
How many boats you need to sink in English Channel and Middeterian for invasion of savages to stop?
I think only few dozens.
So solution is obvious but Western Europe useless, woke leaders are pretending it does not exist.
Next step would be to remigrate all illegals.
Then all legals who wish harm on the West.
Then those who clearly don’t wish to integrate.
I would suggest 100% of Muslims.
We need to start rejecting refugee at the borders – forcibly if necessary otherwise Europe will be overwhelmed.
You’re right, but with respect, that’s not our problem on this side of the pond. We have our own illegal immigration problems to address. Even if they had the ability, I wouldn’t expect the UK to do anything to do about the corrupt governments in Central America and further south that result in the stream of migrants coming into the US. The very notion is absurd.
I sympathize with the European predicament. I’ve read enough Unherd articles on the problem to know that in Europe, unlike the US, it’s not as simple as just electing different politicians. If Trump wants to spend the resources to deport immigrants, he has the legal authority under the Constitution to do so, and there’s no higher authority to consider. I realize that the situation in Europe is more complicated with the EU, and even with the UK due to treaty obligations. Still, treaties can be broken and central governments can be defied and forced to adjust policy, even without the central government having any direct accountability to elected governments. These are not easy tasks but neither is bringing peace to the Middle East.
Beyond that, given the events of the last two decades, why would anyone want the US to intervene? My country doesn’t exactly have a sparkling track record of success in the region. The US is arguably responsible for contributing greatly to the problem in the first place through prior failed interventions and policies, so why is more interventions a solution. Do we keep on doing the same thing expecting different results? Odds are as good as not we’d spend a bunch of money and manage to somehow make things worse. If one finds oneself at the bottom of a deep hole, step one is to put down the shovel and stop digging it deeper. I think if I were a European, or especially a Syrian, I’d be hoping the US would spare us from their incompetence.
The lesson the US should have learned in it’s defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan was that trying to impose its form of democracy on countries and cultures it doesn’t understand is a recipe for vast waste of human life, American and others.
All true.
But USA was not defeated militarily.
They controlled Afghanistan with few thousand troops and air power.
USA destroyed Irak troops in a month.
But I agree that wasting Western lives on savages who just want to be savages is pointless.
Jolani is educated, sophisticated and politically astute … the best-case scenario … is that Jolani is true to his word. He is indeed sophisticated and clearly an effective leader in terms of managing the coup. And US support not only for the M-E coups mentioned here, but the Muslim Brotherhood worked out so well for Egypt, that all should be well for Syria in next-to-no-time. For some in the M-E, to get at Russia and its regional links, is worth taking down the world.
So pro Russia and China stooge is back on this forum.
I agree that moron Obama support for MB was insane.
But Syria was not USA job.
With Israel destruction of Hezbollah and Russia removing troops from Syria to fight in Ukraine, it weakened Assad enough for his regime to collapse.
Whatever the reason, the new regime in Syria is clear defeat for Russia and Iran.
Only enemies of the West, like you, would disagree.
Closer to home, surely this means Trump’s pick for Director of Intelligence even more doomed that it already looked. Gabbard’s support for Assad not looking so good this morning is it.
Apparently Assad is in Moscow, so she can still kowtow to him while she is there kowtowing to Putin.
That rather depends on what happens next.
Gabbard did not “support” Assad. She talked to him. Just like multiple American presidents and other officials used to talk to the Soviets. It used to be called diplomacy back in the day.
She was a private citizen, those presidents and other officials were, well, government representatives. The Logan Act, someone?
She said Assad “wasn’t the enemy of the US”, which was obviously idiotic.
I don’t quite recall Israel complaining about Assad regime.
Do we have any “inteligence” sources predicting fall of Assad government?
We will see in few months or years whether new Syria regime would be any better.
I doubt it.
It’s very refreshing to read an article with real insight.
I care about what happens to the Ernesto’s Sanctuary – they’re somewhere in Idlib Province and are rescuing animals all over. Please help them – https://ernestosanctuary.org/
What is a Syrian ? An Arab ? No. Arabs colonized Syria along with Ottoman Turks. With a name like Abu Muhammad Al -Julani, the whole world can be placed on notice that he is another Arab colonizer in a long string of Arab colonizers. There are no true Syrians left in the Levant. They would be Christian or Jews if there were.
All these opinions on “what will happen next” are hilarious. There are no experts, there are too many unknowns, too many chance events and too many black swans. In ten years time Syria will be somewhere between a state in which everybody worships the Barbie film and dresses accordingly and one in which they become the world’s biggest economy and refute all religions. Get your darts out.
We all know what’s next for Syria, unfortunately. A period of sectarian violence ( read Libia, Iraq etc.) , then a strongman rule marked by pervasive corruption, ailing economy and hectic international policy
So, no change there then?
Another win for the Neocons and Israel supporting US Zionists, creating the desired excuse to invade what will inevitably become an Islamist theocratic state sooner or later. People in the West should stop swallowing their governments’ propaganda and do some proper research and straight thinking, especially since the Neocons and US Zionists care nothing for both the inhabitants of these countries and even their own countrymen they send to fight in them.
The future started yesterday, and it shows what the future will be. I don’t think there will be any change to the positive. Only the leaders change. Maybe Assad was the lesser problem.
I see Israel has used the opportunity to steal more territory from Syria. Apparently the Golan Heights wasn’t enough, they want more land that isn’t theirs
Can’t blame them for putting as much as possible between them and this new bunch of crazies. Anybody with any sense would.
You seemingly support the notion that might has right, in regards to Israel and Russia at least. Therefore if one day Israel’s neighbours manage to overpower it and incorporate it into their own borders or turn it into a Muslim state would you say that’s fair game, or would you oppose it in that scenario?
Russia is a paranoid nation. It has reason to be, having been invaded a number of times from the West, suffering huge human and material losses.
NATO said it wouldn’t expand Eastwards. It did. Russia said Ukraine in NATO was a step too far. That was then “on the menu”. That Russia would do something about it was as certain as night following day.
The “might” was on NATO’s side. It had the might to expand and did so. It was neither right nor, more importantly, sensible. A clash was inevitable.
Israel is a paranoid nation. It has even more right to be so, if that isn’t belittling to the situation by comparing atrocities. A seemingly civilised nation into which its people, the Jewish “nation” as in a people, were fully integrated, tried to murder every single one of them.
Israel is surrounded by Islamic states which seek its destruction and that of its people. It is taking steps to prevent that, which it is entitled to do. Creating a “buffer zone” as it is doing was also as certain as night following day, if the opportunity arose. It did, and Israel has.
Israel will never be overcome by any of the surrounding states, because if that looked likely those states would cease to exist in any meaningful form. It has the might to do so, and in that situation, the right, in my view. It is what any sensible leader of a nation would do.
Both Russia and Israel have warned, expressly or impliedly, of the consequences of a threat to their existence. Neither is bluffing. Those who believe they are make an extremely foolish mistake.
Yeah, but you overlook one salient fact: The Israelis are the “good guys” and the Russians are the “bad guys”.
I don’t believe NATO has territorial ambitions beyond influence. Putin clearly does. The old Warsaw Pact Eastern Europe knows this well and sought to be under a protective umbrella, in other words, the ‘might’ of the USA. Without USA NATO couldn’t fight its way out of a wet paper bag.
I was under the impression paranoia meant you thought you were being picked on. Israel really is. Russia would seem to be don’t get mad, get even, but do it first. This time badly misjudged if indeed the death toll matters to them at all.
It was NATO which expanded not Russia.
NATO is voluntary, and those countries asked to join. Did Georgia or Ukraine ask to have large areas of land stolen by Russia?