Main Edition
US
FR
December 2, 2024 - 3:45pm
There’s the coming “Trump shock” to British politics, which is well documented (if not well understood). But then there’s the “Musk shock” which is more opaque, though potentially even more seismic in its effect.
With a little over six weeks to go until Donald Trump returns to the White House, there is now fevered speculation in the UK about what the world’s richest man has in mind for British politics, with reports emerging about both his relationships with Tony Blair and Boris Johnson and the extent of his political support for Nigel Farage.
First, there emerged claims — albeit from his estranged, eccentric father — that Musk was preparing to donate $100 million to Reform UK to turbocharge Farage’s assault on the premiership over the next four years. Though the Reform leader has himself dismissed the claim as unlikely to be true, the importance of the story lies less in whether it eventually comes to pass and more in what it says about the fragile nature of British politics today.
Seasoned British political strategists, once sceptical of Reform’s potential, now believe that a significant donation of this kind could be a “game changer” for Farage’s party, allowing it to be competitive with both the Conservatives and Labour at the next election. One influential strategist told me they now believe it is possible that Farage could emerge in 2029 as Prime Minister, with the Conservative Party itself so hollowed out and ineffective that a well-funded takeover campaign could succeed, leading to a merger of the conservative Right after the next election.
Yet, the truth is Musk does not have to give Reform $100 million for his influence to be felt in British politics. Through his ownership of X he has already shown a willingness to challenge the Labour government in ways that are proving unsettling for those close to Starmer. For British statecraft, in fact, the very presence of Musk in the Trump administration, presents a daunting diplomatic challenge it has not faced before, in which the interests of politics, commerce, industry and technology come together in the figure of one transformative individual.
And that is where Tony Blair, in particular, comes in. The Financial Times reports that the former prime minister has met and spoken with Musk on a number of calls. Blair also called the SpaceX CEO “an extraordinary innovator”. Though Boris Johnson has also tried to gain influence with Musk, he is not taken seriously in Trump world and has little to offer commercially or politically. Blair on the other hand has built a business empire whose entire raison d’etre is to connect political and economic power, blurring the lines between commercial and philanthropic interests as he does so. This could be Starmer’s route back into some sort of working relationship with the tech mogul.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeSo Tony Blair is selflessly acting to advance Britain’s interests !
You heard it here first. From Tom McTague.
If you think Tony Blair is Britain’s best hope of navigating an uncertain future I applaud you for your resolve in getting out of bed in the morning because I’d off myself. Insane take in my opinion; I suspect Musk and Blair would have irreconcilable differences thankfully.
Hmm… i suspect Musk has a more pragmatic view of politics than any ideological issues, not forgetting that he was once no friend of Trump.
Interesting take , as ever Tom!
What’s not obvious (to me anyway) is what does TBI acually have to offer Musk/Trump?
From the 1940s to the 1970s we were in the Progressive Era with its New Deals, Welfare systems and Civil Rights – FDR, JFK, LBJ, crashing and burning with Jimmy Carter in Iran.
From the 1980s to the 2010s we were in the Globalisation Era with its economic and social liberalism – Reagan, Clinton, Bushes 2, fizzling out with Obama and breathing its last with Joe Biden.
We are now in the first stages of the MAGA Era – it will probably run out of steam in the 2050s. It is utterly dominated by Donald Trump.
The idea that Tony Blair – an icon of the Globalisation Era – “has never been so powerful” is utterly laughable.
2TK should stick with Nigel if he wants any purchase in the court of Trump and Musk.
Interesting that you think the globalisation era ended in the 2010s. Why I wonder? In my opinion, given the extremely influential agendas of the UN, WHO, WEF etc, we’re still in the thick of it… its certainly deeply wounded for now but all the more dangerous for that.
I think it has had its day. Its death throws were Trump1, Covid and the Biden term. The world has turned – you can see it in the way Jamie Dimon, Mark Zuckerburg and Jeff Bezos are all cozying up to Trump. The rich only make a significant move like that if they can see the way the tide is flowing. And they can.
I would not be at all surprised if the US pulls out of the UN (and WHO) and argues for new global structures. As for the WEF, like its sister COP – no one goes any more.
Well except for 2TK who still think Davos is more important than Westminster and was the biggest name at COP 29. What a time to be British!