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Why Georgia is the new Ukraine Defeat in Tbilisi would shatter Putin's power

A Georgian nightmare (Photo by GIORGI ARJEVANIDZE/AFP via Getty Images)

A Georgian nightmare (Photo by GIORGI ARJEVANIDZE/AFP via Getty Images)


October 31, 2024   4 mins

Before the war in Ukraine, before the annexation of Crimea, there was Georgia. Back in 2008, Russia’s invasion of the country was, to Western eyes, an anomaly — on nearly every other metric, Putin’s Russia was on comparatively friendly terms with the US and Europe, and international cooperation with the West was at an all-time high.

Yet 16 years later, there’s no doubt that the Russo-Georgian War marked the start of a new era in Russia’s relationship with its near abroad, culminating in the invasion of Ukraine and the shadow conflict with the West that followed. Now, after all, Georgia has once again become the epicentre of this new Cold War. It’s just that this time, Russia and its proxies are using ballot boxes rather than tanks to capture the Georgian state.

Ahead of the country’s pivotal parliamentary elections on 26 October, Georgian liberals were cautiously optimistic. For the first time in years, the country’s fractured opposition stood a chance of ousting the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party from power. Initially favourable exit polls only confirmed their hope. But soon enough, their excitement was dashed. Despite pursuing a highly divisive policy agenda — including the passage of an infamous foreign agent law in May, dovetailed by more recent laws limiting LGBT activity — Georgian Dream secured a stunning 54% of the vote.

The same evening, opposition parties appeared on national TV, denouncing the vote as illegitimate. Among other things, they cited electoral fraud, violence, and intimidation. Videos of a Georgian Dream loyalist stuffing ballots into a box went viral across Georgian media, as did clips of government supporters attacking election observers. Independent statistical analysis corroborated many of their claims. Over the following days, meanwhile, the country’s opposition-aligned president called for protests against the results of the election, accusing Russia of orchestrating Georgian Dream’s victory. The four main opposition parties also pledged to boycott Parliament, effectively incapacitating the Georgian Dream government.

Though investigations into the vote continue, the battle lines have already been drawn. So far, only Russia, Hungary, China, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan have recognised the result. On the other hand, the US, the EU, and various European governments have denounced the voting irregularities and expressed “alarm” at the electoral process. Already, Sweden has cut ties with the Georgian government over its democratic backsliding.

With few signs the opposition will back down, comparisons have already been made between Tbilisi and Kyiv’s Euromaidan revolution of 2014. Certainly, the showdown in Georgia could yet prove just as consequential: not just for the small mountain nation but for the whole post-Soviet space. Like Ukraine a decade ago, after all, Georgia has become ground zero for confrontation between Russia and the West.

And while the slaughter in the Ukraine may be the shadow conflict’s most dramatic expression, it’s in Georgia where Russia’s ability to dominate its neighbours is being tested most vividly. “Russia will say that ‘we win like always.’ But Russia will lose this battle against Ukraine and Georgia,” says Luka, a 21-year-old student at an opposition-led protest on Monday. “We will fight until we die.”

Certainly, the stakes for young Georgians couldn’t be higher. For those eager to finally join the European Union — according to one poll from last year, that’s almost 90% of the population — the fight is existential. If Georgian Dream’s victory holds, the country’s EU ambitions are dead. Democratic politics more generally is fighting for survival too: Georgian Dream has pledged to outlaw the majority of opposition parties, likening Saturday’s vote to the Nuremberg Trials.

“The stakes for young Georgians couldn’t be higher.”

Given this polarised atmosphere, there are only a few ways the crisis could end, especially when both the West and Russia have so much to lose. Having staked their reputation on challenging the election results, opposition parties are unlikely to accept a Georgian Dream government. If the opposition maintains its boycott of Parliament, and the president continues to refuse to approve the new government, Georgian Dream will be unable to hold parliamentary sessions without two-thirds of elected members being present. That, in turn, would make Georgian Dream — and by extension Russian — unable to legally govern.

In such a situation, Georgian Dream could conceivably choose to buck the law and sidestep the opposition entirely, leading to a constitutional crisis and putting Georgia on an even more perilous collision course with the EU and the US. Brussels and Washington, for their part, are already looking to expand their sanctions against the party.

On the other hand, Georgia could head for a political stand-off in which neither Georgian Dream nor the pro-Western opposition budge. That would doubtless lead to political paralysis: which Russia would be sure to exploit. Already, officials in Moscow have stated that they’re prepared to intervene on Georgian Dream’s behalf if the situation called for it. Nor is this bullishness very surprising. As I explained back in May, Georgia’s position by the Black Sea, along both trade routes and energy pipelines, makes it strategically vital to both Russia and Nato.

Beyond Georgia itself, meanwhile, a Russian victory here would have repercussions much further afield. Consider Armenia, which has been slipping away from Moscow for years, but which is nonetheless dependent on Georgia for transit. To put it differently, Russian domination of Georgia could force Yerevan to move back towards Moscow’s orbit too. The fall of Georgia could equally demoralise anti-Kremlin movements in places like Moldova and even Kazakhstan.

There are other reasons for Russia to force the issue in Georgia too. The war in Ukraine may be going reasonably well — but fighting a full-scale war is nonetheless risky, costly and domestically destabilising. On the other hand, electoral trickery of the sort Moscow’s trying in Georgia is relatively straightforward, and indeed has been part of its playbook for years. The point, clear enough from Baku to Almaty, is this: if Russia gets away with state capture in Tbilisi, it can do the same anywhere.

While, in short, the Euromaidan revolution was the first attempt to reverse Russian domination of its near abroad, Georgia has now become another kind of test case: is it possible that Putin’s expansionism can be defeated through peaceful means alone? And while the fight in Tbilisi is only just beginning, and Western powers are so far holding back, escalation is inevitable — Georgia, and all it represents, is far too important to abandon.


Michal Kranz is a freelance journalist reporting on politics and society in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the United States.

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William Amos
William Amos
1 hour ago

“Before the war in Ukraine, before the annexation of Crimea, there was Georgia. Back in 2008, Russia’s invasion of the country was, to Western eyes, an anomaly”

And yet an independant EU backed report on the conflict found that it was Georgia which initiated the conflict?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-russia-report/georgia-started-war-with-russia-eu-backed-report-idUSTRE58T4MO20090930/
“In the Mission’s view, it was Georgia which triggered off the war when it attacked Tskhinvali (in South Ossetia) with heavy artillery on the night of 7 to 8 August 2008,” said Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, who led the investigation.
The report said the war followed tensions and provocations by Russia, but Tagliavini said: “None of the explanations given by the Georgian authorities in order to provide some form of legal justification for the attack lend it a valid explanation.”
Saakashvili had said Georgia was responding to an invasion by Russian forces when it attacked breakaway South Ossetia, but the report found no evidence of this”

B Emery
B Emery
3 minutes ago

There are two articles on responsible statecraft at the moment that discuss the situation in Georgia, if you want a different perspective. It says that people are rushing to judgement before anything has been investigated properly:

‘She mixed accusations of electoral falsification with an appeal for “the firm support of our European and American partners to the part of Georgia that is European, that is the Georgian population.” This is a quite different argument. It implies that whatever the results of the elections, the only real “Georgian population” is the part that identifies with the West. Only their voice is truly legitimate, and a government that does not unconditionally follow the “European Path” is inherently illegitimate, elections or no elections.’

‘The most reliable monitoring historically has come from the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). Its preliminary comments on the elections:

“Imbalances in financial resources, a divisive campaign atmosphere, and recent legislative amendments were of significant concern throughout this election process… Yet the engagement shown on election day—from the active voter participation, robust presence of citizen and party observers, and rich diversity of voices—gives the sign of a system that is still growing and evolving, with a democratic vitality under construction.” ‘

The other article talks about the fact that concerns about the economy were one of the top priorities for voters, it talks about how the Ukraine war caused inflation and explains that Georgian trade links with the EU haven’t actually been that beneficial, that maintaining ties with Russia is also important for their economy:

‘ But his economic approach in Georgia has been driven by specifically Georgian considerations. And elections always, ultimately, get tipped by domestic issues.

But Western politicians, journalists, and NGOs have cynically, and in a way, willfully ignored the wider economic picture, and have instead spun up the election as an existential struggle between Europe (European Union) and Russia. There is so much nuance here that needs to be examined and is not.’By today’s election count, it would seem a majority of Georgian people chose prosperity over war. It’s time to let Georgia’s government get back to the task of strengthening their wonderful country still further.’

Both articles can be found here, look for the headlines:

Georgia: Election was just as much about the economy

An unfortunate rush to judgment in Georgia elections

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/georgia-elections-europe/

The rush to judgement in the western media is not wise.
Western media did the same with Ukraine, the concerns of the Russian speaking people in the eastern regions of Ukraine were ignored and not sufficiently reported.