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A Georgian nightmare (Photo by GIORGI ARJEVANIDZE/AFP via Getty Images)
Before the war in Ukraine, before the annexation of Crimea, there was Georgia. Back in 2008, Russia’s invasion of the country was, to Western eyes, an anomaly — on nearly every other metric, Putin’s Russia was on comparatively friendly terms with the US and Europe, and international cooperation with the West was at an all-time high.
Yet 16 years later, there’s no doubt that the Russo-Georgian War marked the start of a new era in Russia’s relationship with its near abroad, culminating in the invasion of Ukraine and the shadow conflict with the West that followed. Now, after all, Georgia has once again become the epicentre of this new Cold War. It’s just that this time, Russia and its proxies are using ballot boxes rather than tanks to capture the Georgian state.
Ahead of the country’s pivotal parliamentary elections on 26 October, Georgian liberals were cautiously optimistic. For the first time in years, the country’s fractured opposition stood a chance of ousting the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party from power. Initially favourable exit polls only confirmed their hope. But soon enough, their excitement was dashed. Despite pursuing a highly divisive policy agenda — including the passage of an infamous foreign agent law in May, dovetailed by more recent laws limiting LGBT activity — Georgian Dream secured a stunning 54% of the vote.
The same evening, opposition parties appeared on national TV, denouncing the vote as illegitimate. Among other things, they cited electoral fraud, violence, and intimidation. Videos of a Georgian Dream loyalist stuffing ballots into a box went viral across Georgian media, as did clips of government supporters attacking election observers. Independent statistical analysis corroborated many of their claims. Over the following days, meanwhile, the country’s opposition-aligned president called for protests against the results of the election, accusing Russia of orchestrating Georgian Dream’s victory. The four main opposition parties also pledged to boycott Parliament, effectively incapacitating the Georgian Dream government.
Though investigations into the vote continue, the battle lines have already been drawn. So far, only Russia, Hungary, China, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan have recognised the result. On the other hand, the US, the EU, and various European governments have denounced the voting irregularities and expressed “alarm” at the electoral process. Already, Sweden has cut ties with the Georgian government over its democratic backsliding.
With few signs the opposition will back down, comparisons have already been made between Tbilisi and Kyiv’s Euromaidan revolution of 2014. Certainly, the showdown in Georgia could yet prove just as consequential: not just for the small mountain nation but for the whole post-Soviet space. Like Ukraine a decade ago, after all, Georgia has become ground zero for confrontation between Russia and the West.
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SubscribeAnd yet an independant EU backed report on the conflict found that it was Georgia which initiated the conflict?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-russia-report/georgia-started-war-with-russia-eu-backed-report-idUSTRE58T4MO20090930/
“In the Mission’s view, it was Georgia which triggered off the war when it attacked Tskhinvali (in South Ossetia) with heavy artillery on the night of 7 to 8 August 2008,” said Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, who led the investigation.
The report said the war followed tensions and provocations by Russia, but Tagliavini said: “None of the explanations given by the Georgian authorities in order to provide some form of legal justification for the attack lend it a valid explanation.”
Saakashvili had said Georgia was responding to an invasion by Russian forces when it attacked breakaway South Ossetia, but the report found no evidence of this”
There are two articles on responsible statecraft at the moment that discuss the situation in Georgia, if you want a different perspective. It says that people are rushing to judgement before anything has been investigated properly:
‘She mixed accusations of electoral falsification with an appeal for “the firm support of our European and American partners to the part of Georgia that is European, that is the Georgian population.” This is a quite different argument. It implies that whatever the results of the elections, the only real “Georgian population” is the part that identifies with the West. Only their voice is truly legitimate, and a government that does not unconditionally follow the “European Path” is inherently illegitimate, elections or no elections.’
‘The most reliable monitoring historically has come from the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). Its preliminary comments on the elections:
“Imbalances in financial resources, a divisive campaign atmosphere, and recent legislative amendments were of significant concern throughout this election process… Yet the engagement shown on election day—from the active voter participation, robust presence of citizen and party observers, and rich diversity of voices—gives the sign of a system that is still growing and evolving, with a democratic vitality under construction.” ‘
The other article talks about the fact that concerns about the economy were one of the top priorities for voters, it talks about how the Ukraine war caused inflation and explains that Georgian trade links with the EU haven’t actually been that beneficial, that maintaining ties with Russia is also important for their economy:
‘ But his economic approach in Georgia has been driven by specifically Georgian considerations. And elections always, ultimately, get tipped by domestic issues.
But Western politicians, journalists, and NGOs have cynically, and in a way, willfully ignored the wider economic picture, and have instead spun up the election as an existential struggle between Europe (European Union) and Russia. There is so much nuance here that needs to be examined and is not.’By today’s election count, it would seem a majority of Georgian people chose prosperity over war. It’s time to let Georgia’s government get back to the task of strengthening their wonderful country still further.’
Both articles can be found here, look for the headlines:
Georgia: Election was just as much about the economy
An unfortunate rush to judgment in Georgia elections
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/georgia-elections-europe/
The rush to judgement in the western media is not wise.
Western media did the same with Ukraine, the concerns of the Russian speaking people in the eastern regions of Ukraine were ignored and not sufficiently reported.