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October 27, 2024 - 2:00pm
Tbilisi
It is revealing that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was the first foreign leader to chime in on Georgia’s election — a full hour before the preliminary results were announced. He congratulated the ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party on its victory and the Moscow-friendly leader will soon visit the capital, Tbilisi, in a move that will further frustrate the pro-EU opposition.
This election wasn’t just about who controls parliament — it was about whether the country retains any meaningful independence from Russia. Bidzina Ivanishvili, officially retired from politics but still holding the reins, is seen by many as Georgia’s de facto ruler having founded Georgian Dream. The eccentric oligarch has promoted narratives of a “Global War Party”, painting pro-Western opposition as puppets trying to drag Georgia into war. This rhetoric has justified a brutal anti-media and NGO crackdown, introducing the Kremlin-inspired “foreign agent” law and a fiercely anti-Ukrainian rhetoric.
While Georgian Dream claims to have secured a win with 54% of the vote, opposition groups claim the government has “stolen the election” and are vowing to fight until the end. This, in Georgia, usually means they take to the streets. It suggests another wave of public protests to follow those seen in May. The question now is how massive, and game-changing, they can be.
While Georgia is a tiny country with a population of 3.7 million at the farthest outskirts of Europe, its ideological direction of travel matters. It has been a foothold for Western influence in the Caucasus and an EU-ally on the border with Russia. Hundreds of Georgians — more than any other foreign nation — are fighting in Ukraine, viewing Kyiv’s battle as an extension of their own in the wake of Vladimir Putin’s brief 2008 invasion. The two countries share a history of resisting Moscow and their fate is intertwined.
Western governments are watching closely; losing Georgia would hand Moscow a critical victory in its war of influence. These elections might well have been the last chance for Georgia to reclaim its pro-Western path before fully succumbing to Moscow’s sway. Georgian Dream has shrugged off reprimands and threats of sanctions from the EU and the US, while Brussels has halted EU accession talks for as long as the democratic backsliding continues.
With victory declared, the buoyant Georgian Dream seems poised to make good on its promises to further silence the opposition, and to whip the independent media and NGOs either into submission or outright fleeing the country. The opposition has vowed to resist, setting the stage for a volatile few months. If protests grow, Moscow could press Georgian Dream to stamp them out, echoing Belarus’ brutal crackdown in 2020. Alternatively, Ivanishvili, seeing his grip on power loosened, may mimic President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko and ask the Kremlin for assistance.
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SubscribeThe choice for Russia was set out clearly with the CIA coup in Ukraine; either Russia controls a bordering country or sees it become a US (big capital) colony used to threaten Russia.
Unsurprisingly Russia would be wise to choose the first of these options.
In the meantime I cannot see that the UK has any vital interests being at risk by whoever happens to control Georgia.
The UK should not get involved…but no doubt it will…for no benefit whatsoever to itself and its people.
Russia supporting clowns like you somehow believe that Russia should control bordering country.
Reality is those countries don’t want to be controlled by Russia, usually based on hundreds of years experience of Russian genocidal imperialism.
Idea that being ally of USA makes you colony of USA is just laughable.
Let’s look at former Soviet Block.
Polands GDP is 4 times of what it was under Russian yoke.
Many other counties similar ratios.
Russia has nothing to offer to the world apart from poverty, violence and dictatorship.
But keep dreaming your Russian dream.
I don’t support Putin. But it was entirely obvious what the Russian response would be to the attempt to expand NATO to Ukraine.
And so it proved. It is called reality.
Look, I don’t know the details of what’s happening in Georgia, but this reads like boilerplate neo-con propaganda. If the people of Georgia want to rejoin Russia, that’s their business.
Was the Georgia Dream party elected fair and square? IDK. The author didn’t think it was important enough to mention. Is there evidence of actual cheating? What were the vote totals.
I’m always suspicious when pundits talk about govt control of the media. What does this even mean? In Canada, the biggest media outlet is 100% financed by govt. and the rest receive generous subsidies, with the govt determining which outlets get these subsidies. In the U.S., virtually all regime media have been ideologically captured by one political party. The author certainly isn’t winning my confidence with his defence of NGOs. Far from promoting democracy, these are a pernicious threat to freedom.
The people of Georgia didn’t want to rejoin Russia though.
Almost every exit poll had the opposition winning comfortably, and there is widespread allegations of violence, intimidation and ballot stuffing by government parties, so much so even the Georgian president has labelled the result fraudulent.
I know you enjoy being rather contrarian, and if the media reports one thing you automatically side with the other, but not everything is a sinister western plot. Somethings allegations of corruption again unfriendly regimes are entirely justified
And who carried out the exit polls? My guess would be organisations “trusted by the West”, but by nobody else if they have any sense.
However as I have previously said, the UK has no legitimate interest in who governs Georgia. In view of recent history, Russia most certainly has.
Was ‘rejoining Russia’ on the ballot box or even ever mentioned? Meaningless hyperbole.
I never said it was, my reply was to JV who mentioned it. The choice for the electorate was essentially closer ties to either Russia or Europe. It seems the electorate chose Europe but some shady shenanigans have led to the election being called the other way.
When the nations own President disputes the result you have to think there’s something slightly untoward
You know how it is Jim, when the Western parties win, it’s democracy and freedom and when they lose it’s a stolen election. Nevermind that the West does all the same shenanigans like funding the opposition and “civil society groups”/NGOs to the tune of millions to have certain opinions on geopolitical matters. As ever, the motto is “when we do it, it’s good, when they do it, it’s bad”. Just have a look at Moldova, every article made special note of “Russian corruption” while no one mentioned how many EU funded organisations (which is to say, paychecks) there are actively influencing opinions.
Or (re: Moldova) of BlackRock buying up agricultural land…
Georgia is a pawn in the struggle between NATO and Russia over parts of Europe in which NATO should not get involved. Resolve that issue and Georgia should be OK. It should not, however, get too excited about joining the EU, a failing entity.
When the narrative is that the West wants wars and the East wants peace, the game is over. Don’t matter real or perceived!
We are no longer an uninformed population, so the West honestly needs to hire a consultant to rebrand. No one wants wars. A simple question remains: why does the West want to control the countries bordering Russia?
Because the Neocons seek to break up Russia in order to plunder its resources and profit considerably by doing so.
Or some deep psychological need for the constant presence of an “enemy”. Maybe it’s a hangover from more primitive, and more real, times that still resides in some psyches.
To the extent that the West needs an “enemy”, Russia is perfect for the role. Has been for some time. Will be for some time.
I didn’t say “the West”. You need to think a little more before you respond. I’m referring to people like the Neocons and their bottom feeders. They may not be mentally well.
Neocons run the West (something that I am perfectly happy about).
How’s it working out so far?
Pretty good from my perspective. We won the Cold War anyway, and (mostly) still live in democracies.
But still constantly at war. Someone’s not getting the message out there. What’s the benefit of winning the Cold War if Russia’s still the enemy. That doesn’t sound like a win. Or wasn’t there meant to be a win, just a prolonged state of global skirmishes.
Russia is still a problem, because we were fools (and I put my hand up to this too). We thought that when the Berlin Wall came down, Russia would be somehow “better”. It wasn’t.
The neocons in the US have spent about $8 trillion dollars and cost a million lives in the last 23 years on their “war on terror”. With almost nothing to show for it.
I don’t like to tag people with the term “fool” too often, but I think it’s the best word to describe Richard and Liz Cheney.
So, what would you have done about 9/11? Just said “Oh well, these things happen”?
Possibly the Cold War wasn’t even necessary? The Soviet Union was economically devastated and probably couldn’t overrun Western Europe, or even wanted to. Stalin may well have been happy with Churchill’s “Naughty Document” agreement. After all he didn’t assist the Greek Communists…in line with the agreement.
On the other hand, it wasn’t the New Deal which pulled the US economy out of recession, it was WW2…
Go figure, as they say… Perhaps Orwell was even more prescient than realised at the time.
And Eisenhower had certainly understood the problem and warned about it.
Stalin chose to conquer Bulgaria, a Slavic and orthodox state instead of Greece.
Yes but Stalin Russia enslaved Eastern and Central Europe.
Obviously not a problem for you.
But then, French w***e spread its legs for Nazi Germany pretty quickly.
Yeah. If you need someone to surrender and collaborate, the French are your first port of call.
How’s the pay for NAFO tools nowadays? Or do you work pro bono?
If you tell me what “NAFO” is, I’ll have a go at answering your question.
Well that, and to curb it’s alarming habit of invading its neighbors.
Well, breaking up Russia would be great service to humanity.
It is the last remaining colonial power.
Somehow I doubt neocons need to do anything.
Putin and his gangster clique plundered Russia pretty well by itself.
Now go back on your medication.
It doesn’t want to “control” them, it just wants them in the EU and NATO (and that can only happen if the countries themselves want that).
Amazing, eight downvotes from Lenin usefull idiots, on factual statements.
Any of pro Russian clowns care to say what former Soviet Block countries or Baltic States or Ukraine or Belorusia etc want to be part of “Russian Mir”?
Guilt because of handing over so much of central and Eastern Europe to Stalin?
You really got it back to front.
Countries bordering Russia don’t want to be controlled by Russia.
Based on hundreds years of experience of Russian genocidal imperialism.
So those countries, now including Finland and Sweden, jumped at the chance of joining NATO.
Russia is disgusting, corrupt dictatorship.
It has nothing to offer to civilised world.
Just look at Russia allies:
North Korea, Iran and Venezuela.
What a lovely bunch.
Emigrating there any time soon?
Meanwhile, talk of banning the AfD is gaining traction in Germany and no longer looks like a remote, conspiratorial possibility.
The Germans have always been romantics. They fall in love with various ideologies and then seek to impose them. The chosen “loved one” has successively been Imperialism, National So***lism, then a split of the territory into Communism in one and Democracy/Europeanism in the other, and then in the unified version.
So democracy, as they define it, must be protected…and enforced. It won’t end well; at least it hasn’t historically, particularly for other countries.
The UK got out of the EU (in so far as it has…) not before time.
I read the blogger Eugyppius, who seems to suggest AfD has a lot of support with German electorate. Be interested to read your view re AfD please? Thanks.
I don’t know that much honestly, but they do have about 30% public support and earned the most votes in two recent regional elections in east Germany, although they have been shut out of govt in both cases.
Germany relies on coalitions as it elections are run on a system of PR.
Therefore if the AfD can’t win an outright majority then they need partners in order to gain power. Are you suggesting parties shouid be forced to go into government with other parties they despise, just because that party received the most votes (albeit less than a third of the vote)?
Did I say that or even imply that?
Why the dichotomy – can Georgia not be neutral, neither “with Europe” nor “with Russia”?
When neutrality was proposed for Austria to resolve its four-power-status after WW II, Eisenhower – worried about US imperial overstretch – was ecstatic. At no point post WW II did the Soviet Union or later Russia ever threaten Austrian independence.
This “with us or against us” attitude is immature and destined to create tensions. The Helsinki Final Act expressly supported neutrality.
Possibly (probably?) the Soviet proposal in the early 1950s for a unified, neutral Germany should have been accepted by “the West”.
As you point out, the Austrian situation worked well for all parties.
It’s a tantalising thought, but I do think that just as today is not 1938 pre-Munich, so post-WW II Soviet Union was Stalin, not the Russia of today. Maybe a neutral unified Germany would have been feasible, but I find it hard to blame any of the then actors to suspect Stalin.
Closer to today, I find the Helsinki Final Act to supply a workable basis for peace in Europe. Not perfect, but any peace in Europe must always be a work in progress.
As Bismarck said: Success in politics is a good treaty with Russia.
Provided the treaty says that Russia must stay within its borders and not trade with the West, then I am ok with it in theory, but for the fact that we would be foolish to trust Russia.
Yes Bismarck and Ribentrop-Molotov and others.
It was usually at the expense of other countries like Poland, Czechoslovakia, Baltic States or Finland or Romania.
You are really nasty piece of shite.
I have no issue with Austria being “neutral” provided it leaves the EU.
How laughable.
Please tell us why Sweden and Finland joined NATO?
I guess it must be because of Russia being such a friendly and trustworthy neighbour?
This is not an opinion article. It is more like a NATO spokesperson’s announcement..! The existence of NATO remains questionable. The vicious “democratization” of countries is pushing the world to war and chaos..!
If the West doesn’t start considering refreshed ideas of governing, the future looks pale..! For the moment we have neoliberal (left & right) illiterate arrogants, far left and woke pro-islammic morons, and right of right to far right regressionists..! Not the best material for a bright future. Not even if the West won all of its mad games. Neither if the far right got the mainstream policy, nor if the wokism (God forbid) got its agenda established..!
We need a different path..! Yesterday..!
“If the West doesn’t start considering refreshed ideas of governing, the future looks pale..!” So, your suggestion is that we all embrace the “Gangster State Ruled by Warmongering Tyrant” model, as Russia has?
Tbf, Georgia is only fighting two wars.
When I bought my subscription to Unherd, I thought I’d finally get some clear, thoughtful, mostly unbiased articles.
I might have been wrong. This seems to be a press release from the losing side, and as such, it isn’t a thoughtful piece.
Unfortunately, the only thought is created is should I cancel my annual subscription now or wait a while, hoping my opinion was a bit rash?
Cancel now. I’ll hold the door open for you as you leave.
Our side doesn’t cancel the other side, and we can stand reading even very obviously biased BS like in the article above. I find that listening to the other side helps me stay balanced.
Ok, maybe Georgia is doomed. The West can’t save everyone. However, there must be a way to kick Hungary out of the EU, or at the very least withhold funds from it.
You are the biggest NAFO tool on this forum.
I feel jealous.
No one said this about me.
That sounds like a compliment, but I’ll wait until you tell me what “NAFO” is before reaching a final view.
I just googled. Apparently it stands for Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. They seem a decent bunch, so yeah, guilty as charged.
Well, I am not happy about Hungary stance over Ukraine etc (and I know country well).
However, Hungary (after Tusk took over in Poland) looks like the only country going against EU orthodoxy of mass immigration, multi culti, gender nonsense etc.
Maybe with exception of Italy and Denmark?
I am standing in awe how progressivists perform acrobatic contorsions when they simultaneously believe that Trump is Hitler, because of Jan 6, and that the progressivist elite in Georgia now must do everything it takes to contest the election. Very funny. Let’s just hope nobody is harmed.
Staff Writer from Radio Free Europe, I bet they are an impartial bunch! I read UnHerd because it offers alternative opinions from both the Left and the Right. This article is straight from the MSM and the NATO/EU elites. Load of Cold War rubbish
Absolutely correct. He gives the game away right at the beginning by trying to rubbish Viktor Orban. It should be noted that both Hungary and Georgia have been badly undermined by George Soros and his “Open Society” stooges.
I had a great time when in Georgia (and in Hungary) and wish it could be made clear even in the UK how many stooges of venal billionaire kleptocrats like Soros, Vince, Gates etc etc are active here.
If Hungary wants to be friends with Russia, it should leave NATO and the EU.
Neither country has a history of resisting Moscow. Georgia, sadly, was conquered swiftly and brutally in 1920. Ukraine did form a puppet state under Germany for nearly three years, but I don’t think that is quite the sort of resistance the author means.
Why do I have to confirm that I am not a robot every minute?
Because UnHerd wants to make sure that you haven’t turned into a robot since you last posted….
I am frankly disappointed that UnHerd is publishing a writer employed by the United States government as part of it geopolitical propaganda campaign. How much more Herd can you get? Uncle Sam pays impoverished young Georgians salaries several times the local norm to write whatever Washington wants, despite the facts. Plenty of poor rent-a-protesters likewise perform on demand for the hired cameras in Tbilisi, courtesy of American and European taxpayers. It’s all theatre. Those cameras are turned off when hundreds of thousands of real Georgians take to the streets to honor their nation and their God.
I am a former American who fled to Georgia in 2021 for the peace and freedom and goodness now scarce in my homeland. I prefer not to live in any country without basic freedoms and rule of law, especially if thousands of nuclear missles are aimed at them (whether US or Russia).
UnHerd readers need to know that
Georgians are ethnically distinct from Russians (they look different from Slavs).The Georgian language and culture are unrelated to the Russian, being very much older.Governments of Russia have been occupying and abusing Georgia for centuries, so Georgians are sick of it. Georgia has been a true sovereign nation for thousands of years, but never an empire like Russia or USA.Georgia’s only hope to maintain peace and freedom is to be neutral. No alliances with any country. Friendship, trade, and travel with all countries but submissive to none.The people of Georgia do not hate the people of Russia or America, and treat them well, but they do not trust their governments, preferring their own freely-elected government.The Georgians fighting for Ukraine are privately-emplyed mercenaries, not Georgian Army and with no support from the government of Georgia.Our government routinely defies demands from both Washington and Moscow, as they should.Georgia has welcomed many refugees from both Ukraine and Russia since 2022, and given much humanitarian aid (though no military aid).Georgia is a profoundly Christian culture with an ancient Church, with full religious freedom for all.Georgia is a great place to live a good life.Come see for yourself. Citizens of the Anglophone countries need only their passports to come for a whole year, nothing else. International airports in Tbilisi, Batumi, and Kutaisi.