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September 27, 2024 - 5:30pm
Reform UK voters who defected from the Conservatives at the last election will be the hardest for the Tories to win back, according to a new poll.
The Savanta figures outline yet another challenge for the opposition party ahead of its annual conference on Sunday — the first not in government in 15 years.
Some 62% of current Reform UK voters say that Reform “switchers” — who voted Conservative in 2019 before changing allegiance in 2024 — will be the most difficult for the Tories to convince. This is compared to only 33% of Labour voters and 29% of Liberal Democrat voters who say their own switchers will be the most stubborn.
Across all respondents — voters of all parties and none — 30% thought Reform UK voters would be the most difficult for the Conservatives to regain. This is compared to 25% who thought Labour switchers would be hardest, 15% who thought Lib Dems and 11% who thought non-voters would stay away from the Tories. Meanwhile, 42% of Tory voters thought Labour switchers would be the easiest to win back, but only 17% of Tory voters thought Reform UK voters would be the easiest to recoup.
| Reform voters will be most difficult for Tories to win back |
| Which party’s ‘switchers’ will be hardest for Conservatives to regain, according to all voters |
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The polling also showed no consensus on the reasons for the recent Tory defeat. Four in 10 (38%) members of the public say the Conservatives lost because they weren't moderate enough, while 25% say they weren't Right-wing enough. Meanwhile, 31% of Conservative voters say it's because the party wasn't Right-wing enough, with only a quarter (25%) saying they lost because they weren’t sufficiently moderate.
At the last election, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK won the third-largest share of the national vote at 14.3%. It is estimated that Reform splitting the vote cost the Tories directly around 80 seats. In this context, it will be essential for any future Tory leader to win a large share of those voters back. This polling shows that task won’t be easy for two main reasons: the frustration of Reform switchers and the competing diagnoses of failure which could confuse the future direction of the party.
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Take Our Country Back
I’m on the “Thatcherite centre right” of the Conservatives so I guess now “Far right, neo fascist, etc, etc.
I applaud Farage and Reform and wish them well but if I’m honest I don’t see anything in their manifesto which will solve the problem. Yes it’s great to have a plan and a detailed manifesto. It t could be fully costed, funded, and 100% achievable.
In order to make any significant (or tbh insignificant) change you need to defeat or circumvent the vested interests of the Civil Service, the
Judiciary, and the pernicious influence of academia and the clergy.
When people say “take our country back” I’m always tempted to ask “take it back to where”? If I had my way I’d take it back to June 21st 1948, just pre Windrush, and start again. If only….
JRM doesn’t quite follow this thought through to its conclusion:
“And we cannot just assume that the pendulum will swing back to us or that all the Reform voters will suddenly repent.”
It is not the voters who need to repent here. It’s the politicians for not providing better choices. As long as you have people in a party blaming the voters, you can forget getting them back.
The MPs choice of the two candidates offered to their membership will demonstrate whether they have a “hope in hell” of winning back 2024 Reform voters.
I rather think it was exactly that attitude of MPs (he was referring to Conservative ones but it applies to Labour MPs equally) that he was highlighting. It’s the same attitude held by “Remain /Rejoin” fanatics who have an absolute faith that the heretics will see the light and repent.
The key point surely is that for the wider public immigration wasn’t and isn’t the number one issue, yet for the Tory members who’ll determine the next leader it may be. That’ll lead them down a cul de sac yet again.
Reform implodes under more scrutiny and as soon as it has to develop a broader Policy offering. At that point all the differences and contradictions amongst those it’s attracted would surface. The privileged private schoolboys Farage & Yusuf can’t square their economics with the Red Wall and are found distasteful by too many of the old Blue wall. We are at peak Reform, although they may win some by-elections yet.
The Tories will survive and come back. Kemi unfortunately doesn’t get into the last two. The members then prefer Jenrick to Cleverley. Jenrick uninspiring and already more focused on outflanking Reform than winning the Country, so all looking good for Labour. Hope that cheers a few up after a wet week.
One assumes that you feel the same about Starmer’s privileged education? If the Tories survive, they will simply continue the managed decline, with the help of most of our institutions, that has been in place for many years. We, the English, appear to have lost the will to continue the struggle; how else can you interpret the mindless stupidity of continuing to vote for those who will only hasten our departure from this mortal coil? Good luck to Reform; they at least represent some resistance to the dying of the light – it’s the departure from the stage with hardly a whimper that really rankles.
‘We’re all going to hell in a handcart’ – a feeling that for many increases with age NT and always has done.
And sometimes those who feel it are absolutely right.
I would argue that Reform certainly cost my former Conservative Member of Parliament his seat as the Conservative vote fell by 20% compared to Labour’s 6% based on the 2019 General Election result.
Nope. The fake Tories did that all by themselves. If you love your country vote Reform whenever you can.
I would go a step further Dee; let’s join Reform and help to create a party (centre-right culturally, centre-left economically) that attracts people of the right calibre and courage to lead us out of the stagnant and myopic state the uniparty has reduced us to during our lifetime. Action this day!
Wrong! Your Conservative MP lost his seat because of the appalling policies and track record of the Tories since 2010 when David ‘Call-Me Dave!” Cameron came to power.
The ToyliTories are history.. oh for when Britain was owned and run by gentlemen, as opposed to the descendants of “below stairs” with all their chippiness, pomposity, appalling dress sense, lack of manners and taste, and Pooteresque snobbery.
J Watson had a comment on here, to which I replied. Both have since disappeared. Has anyone else had this experience?
Reform was polling circa 7% three weeks before the election and went to 14% of the vote. The recent conference was s triumph of optimism and hope.
Now they have four years to boost infrastrucutre in every UK constiuency, which they are acheiving rapidly, along with a party membership now nearing 100,000 and rising daily. They have the most charismatic political leader the UK right has seen for 40 years, and three of the other 4 MPs have heavyweight media profiles. The Lib Dems have 70 MPs – you heard from any of them since the election?
Reform are creating a political machine that is on the ascendancy, with a terrible Labour government that will drive swaithes of people of every creed and colour to them everyday.
Yet the arrogance of the utterly broken Tory party in thinking this constituency is going to comeback is astonishing. You keep lying and cheating on partners and eventually the relationship comes to an end; for good.
The rise of Reform reflects what is happening all over Europe. It’s a democratic revolt led by ordinary prople who have had enough of the ghastly political and media class.
Reform have only just really started. If a week is a long time in politics, four years is a lifetime.
Regards
NHP
I hope that Tory Party is permanently disabled and may no longer be a significant force in British politics. The current contenders for the Tory leadership demonstrate the low quality of the sort of people who are members and aspire to take it forward. The Tory Party has become a soft socialist entity under whose recent administrations immigration and Woke policies have grown exponentially. They deserve to be consigned to the history books.