Reform UK voters who defected from the Conservatives at the last election will be the hardest for the Tories to win back, according to a new poll.
The Savanta figures outline yet another challenge for the opposition party ahead of its annual conference on Sunday — the first not in government in 15 years.
Some 62% of current Reform UK voters say that Reform “switchers” — who voted Conservative in 2019 before changing allegiance in 2024 — will be the most difficult for the Tories to convince. This is compared to only 33% of Labour voters and 29% of Liberal Democrat voters who say their own switchers will be the most stubborn.
Across all respondents — voters of all parties and none — 30% thought Reform UK voters would be the most difficult for the Conservatives to regain. This is compared to 25% who thought Labour switchers would be hardest, 15% who thought Lib Dems and 11% who thought non-voters would stay away from the Tories. Meanwhile, 42% of Tory voters thought Labour switchers would be the easiest to win back, but only 17% of Tory voters thought Reform UK voters would be the easiest to recoup.
Reform voters will be most difficult for Tories to win back |
Which party’s ‘switchers’ will be hardest for Conservatives to regain, according to all voters |
The polling also showed no consensus on the reasons for the recent Tory defeat. Four in 10 (38%) members of the public say the Conservatives lost because they weren't moderate enough, while 25% say they weren't Right-wing enough. Meanwhile, 31% of Conservative voters say it's because the party wasn't Right-wing enough, with only a quarter (25%) saying they lost because they weren’t sufficiently moderate.
At the last election, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK won the third-largest share of the national vote at 14.3%. It is estimated that Reform splitting the vote cost the Tories directly around 80 seats. In this context, it will be essential for any future Tory leader to win a large share of those voters back. This polling shows that task won’t be easy for two main reasons: the frustration of Reform switchers and the competing diagnoses of failure which could confuse the future direction of the party.
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