X Close

How bad is it for Boris? The failures of Thatcher, Cameron and Major provide lessons for the PM

Bojo with no mojo. Credit: Tayfun Salci/Anadolu Agency via Getty

Bojo with no mojo. Credit: Tayfun Salci/Anadolu Agency via Getty


December 18, 2020   6 mins

There was little fanfare as the anniversary of the Tory Party’s 2019 landslide slipped by. There was some interesting commentary, but not much back-slapping among the faithful — what, after all, was there to celebrate? Who could possibly have predicted how much trouble a prime minister who’d won an 80 seat majority and a double-digit lead over the opposition could be in barely 12 months later?

Well, let’s not be so swift to condemn. A look back at where three of Boris Johnson’s Tory PM predecessors stood a year after they too had trounced Labour at a general election gives the lie to the idea that only Boris could have blown things so badly. Sure, he’s had a difficult year. But we somehow seem to have forgotten that they had too!

So Christmas tidings of comfort and joy all round, right? Well, not quite. For two of the three Tory leaders in question, remember, it would never be glad confident morning again. Still, the whole point of history is to learn from it. So what lessons are there for Boris from their successes and their failings? Let’s start with the one whose time in No 10 was about to come to a very abrupt and unexpected end.

David Cameron, May 2016

Pride, they say, comes before a fall. And in David Cameron’s case, that fall was pretty damn spectacular. It would be unfair to say that as he went about his business at the beginning of May 2016, he was serenely confident, let alone chillaxed, that Remain would triumph in June’s EU referendum. By that stage of the game, after all, no one in No 10 imagined they would be coasting to victory. But Cameron still had every hope of victory, mainly because the economic case he was majoring on so overwhelmingly favoured the Remain cause – just as it had in Scotland a couple of years earlier and at the general election a year before.

That it didn’t go his way could be blamed partly on the fact that he was fighting the referendum campaign with one hand tied behind his back, so determined was he not to indulge in ‘blue-on-blue’ attacks. He wanted room to put the party back together afterwards, even when sorely provoked by (guess who?) Boris Johnson.

Perhaps if Cameron had displayed the same killer instinct that had helped him see off Tony Blair and then Gordon Brown when dealing with the enemy within, then Prime Minister George Osborne would now be dealing with the Coronovirus crisis – and without having to worry about ‘getting Brexit done’ at the very same time.

Lessons for Johnson:

(1) A track-record of winning referendums doesn’t mean you’ll win the next one, especially if your argument is economic and the other side’s is emotional. Denying the Scots another vote is going to be very difficult, so start thinking now about how to win hearts not just heads;

(2) when dealing with your internal opponents, attack is often the best form of defence, particularly if the alternative is appeasement. The lockdown sceptics and the Eurosceptics will never be satisfied – so stop trying, put on your proverbial big boy pants, and take them on instead; and

(3) in politics, there really, really is no such thing as a friend. Beware Rishi Sunak – and, as ever, Michael Gove

John Major, April 1993

The fact that John Major, who had taken over a divided and demoralised Tory party after a hard-fought leadership contest 18 months earlier, won the general election of April 1992 came as a genuine shock. The polls had pointed consistently to a Labour victory or, at the very least, a hung parliament.

In the event, the Conservatives thrashed Labour in terms of vote share by 42 to 34 percentage points, winning what is still the highest number of votes for any party at a UK general election: 14.1 million. In politics, however, every silver lining has a cloud. Britain’s first past the post electoral system, which so often helps the Tories, this time rescued Labour, leaving Major with an overall majority of 21 seats, down from 102.

If Major had ever hoped that such tight arithmetic might concentrate the minds of his mightily relieved colleagues, then a year into his second term, that illusion was well and truly shattered. The reason? Not sleaze – although David Mellor’s resignation in September 1992 proved a harbinger of what was to come on that front – but the UK’s costly forced exit from the EU’s Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) on Black Wednesday that same month.

That external shock not only cratered the Conservatives in the opinion polls and provided proof (if proof were needed) to an as yet small but increasingly determined band of Tory MPs, that UK participation in European integration must not be allowed to go any further and, if possible, should even be wound back. As a result, ratification of the Maastricht Treaty, which had originally been greeted as a triumph for Major’s diplomacy, had turned into a parliamentary and personal nightmare. It really only ended four years later when a new, convincingly centrist Labour leader finally put the Conservatives out of their misery, The rest, as they say, is history.

Lessons for Johnson:

(1) Gratitude is the most perishable quantity in politics. The credit you get, both for pulling off a last-gasp diplomatic triumph and for pulling your party’s electoral chestnuts out of the fire doesn’t last very long. Winning big in 2019 and Brexit will mean nothing if you’ve not been able to prove the latter has indeed given you squillions to squirt on schools and hospitals, and shinier town centres, in those Red Wall seats;

(2) a parliamentary majority counts for little in the face of the formation of a party (or parties) within a party. ERG, CRG, NRG. These things are growing like topsy. Buying them off policy-wise is a bad idea. But frontbench roles for their most ambitious movers and shakers? They can work wonders; and

(3) a combination of events, dear boy, events and the election of a credible, moderate and clever opposition leader can rapidly erode your lead in the polls without the pendulum swinging back to you as the next election looms. Keir Starmer might not be a full-blown heir to Blair, but he really doesn’t need to be to win the next election. The threat he presents needs taking far more seriously than it has been so far.

Margaret Thatcher, May 1980

It is easy to forget, in the light of her second and third successive election victories in 1983 and 1987 that, a year after her first, in 1979, Margaret Thatcher was by no means mistress of all she surveyed.

True, although her parliamentary majority was nothing compared to what it managed in those later contests, it was still – at 44 – far more comfortable than John Major’s. However, the economic outlook was, if anything, considerably worse than the one he faced after 1992. Unemployment was running at over 7% (nudging 2 million), British manufacturers were going bust all over the country, and inflation stood at (from today’s perspective a scarcely credible) 22%.

And while the Labour Party was too preoccupied with its own civil war to present much of a threat, a number of so-called ‘wets’ in the Cabinet were deeply (and none too privately) concerned about what they saw as Thatcher’s nonsensical determination to stick to the fiscal and monetary squeeze that she was messianically convinced would provide a long-term cure for Britain’s ills.

That said, the news wasn’t all bad. Progress was being made on a Housing Bill which would introduce one of Thatcherism’s flagship, and electorally popular, policies – Right to Buy. And in the meantime, the SAS’s daring raid on the Iranian Embassy proved an unalloyed triumph and one which announced to the world that Britain was back as a global player.

Lessons for Johnson:

(1) Even if some of your worried cabinet colleagues are urging you to u-turn on the big shift in economic policy you’ve been talking about for a year or more, keep calm and carry on. Levelling up is vital, both politically and economically; don’t let your fiscal hawks, especially your Chancellor, talk you out of it;

(2) focus, too, on pushing through policies that will help you retain all those working class voters you won over from Labour. You won in 2019, remember, not just because of Brexit but because you promised it would lower immigration, recruit more nurses and police, and build more houses; and, of course,

(3) keep banging that patriotic drum. Voters want the country talked up, not down, to feel it has a bright future not just a glorious past. This is your greatest strength. Never, ever stop playing to it.

In the end, of course, different things work for different people – and different prime ministers — at different times. While it may have been a near-visionary sense of mission that helped Thatcher survive her very difficult first year and go on to win two more general elections, it could well be the protean pragmatism that enabled Johnson to climb to the top of Disraeli’s greasy pole in the first place that helps him stay there after his own annus horribilis. This is especially true if it means (as I suspect it does, given his penchant both for history and for breathtaking opportunism) that he is more inclined than most to learn the lessons that the past has to teach.


Tim Bale is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London and Director of the Mile End Institute.

ProfTimBale

Join the discussion


Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber


To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.

Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.

Subscribe
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

38 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Fraser Bailey
Fraser Bailey
3 years ago

‘Perhaps if Cameron had displayed the same killer instinct that had helped him see off Tony Blair and then Gordon Brown…’

In what sense did Cameron ‘see off’ Blair? Blair’s resignation as PM was nothing to do with Cameron. And one could argue that Cameron didn’t really ‘see off’ Brown either. Gillian Duffy probably did more in that regard.

J StJohn
J StJohn
3 years ago
Reply to  Fraser Bailey

Anybody who could convince the electorate that he himself is more committed to the NHS than Gordon ‘double their money’ Brown, has an unparalleled killer instinct.

Kiran Grimm
Kiran Grimm
3 years ago

Is Boris content to leave the response to the pandemic entirely to the united forces of SAGE, Matt Hancock and the whole MSM groupthink crowd?

The lockdown remedy is starting to look as farcical as a game of Wack-A-Mole ““ lock down a region untll the infection rates fall then lift the lockdown until “rising infection rates are starting to cause concern”. Lockdown once again until infection rates fall. Repeat the process until further notice.

Germany, supposedly doing a better job of handling the pandemic, is having the similar problems to the UK. Yesterday’s infection rate for Germany: 30,951 new cases. The death rate was 724 new deaths. Hardly a sign of lockdown success.

With the leader of Her Maj’s opposition displaying his feeble “scepticism” by calling for even tougher lockdown measures there is ample opportunity for Johnson to gain respect by challenging the unimpressive achievements of the established experts and seeking advice on bold new alternatives.

Do we really need to cripple the nation’s economy just to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed and to keep the winter death rate from being a bit higher than usual?

Fraser Bailey
Fraser Bailey
3 years ago
Reply to  Kiran Grimm

‘The lockdown remedy is starting to look as farcical as a game of Wack-A-Mole…’

Or Whack-A-Prole as the Tories (and Labour) call it. Whenever someone pops their head out of the door to go to the pub or do a bit of work, take them out.

Teo
Teo
3 years ago
Reply to  Fraser Bailey

Whack-A-Prole: Dominic Cummings was the first casualty.

Stuart Bennett
Stuart Bennett
3 years ago
Reply to  Kiran Grimm

Boris has abdicated all responsibility for the COVID response to SAGE. Chris Whitby, Imperial College etc have all been shown to deliberately exaggerate their predictions and admitted they haven’t even given a thought to balancing their plans against the damage it’ll do. It’s hardly the sign of the leadership that’s needed. It looks distinctly like a bunch of cowards all covering their own backs.

Ian Barton
Ian Barton
3 years ago

Johnson has nothing to learn from Cameron.

Cameron was completely out of touch with British voters, and far too arrogant to realise that the electorate weren’t going to buy any of his disingenuous snake-oil.

Johnson is simply not as bewilderingly stupid as Cameron was.

SUSAN GRAHAM
SUSAN GRAHAM
3 years ago

No Prime Minister in history – especially those you name, perhaps with the exception of Thatcher has had to handle as many crises as Johnson at any one time, especially whilst fighting the virus himself. With a hostile opposition, mainly opposing just to oppose with no constructive ideas of their own when the circumstances needed a joint effort. Together with a largely left-wing media – even those who present a right wing facade – with the added cesspit of social media, Johnson is really up against it. Every move is criticised, everybody is a member of the ‘hindsight’ club and could have done a better job – in their mind. Even being the first in Europe to acquire a vaccine and roll it out already still brings out the naysayers to do what they do best – find fault. Could they do better? No way. In the past politicians were judged on policies and achievements – now the media play the man and not the ball, popularity is judged on their personal private lives which is irrelevant. Had the private lives of Disraeli and Lloyd George been in the public arena they would not have been held in such high esteem.
I believe Boris has done his best with a lousy hand of cards – he just needs to deliver a good Brexit now or I may cancel my membership of his fan club.

Deryck Hall
Deryck Hall
3 years ago
Reply to  SUSAN GRAHAM

That’s an early rewrite of history.

Johnson was the architect of the Brexit crisis not its inheritor.

Starmer offered to assist the Govt in its handling of the Covid crisis, but Johnson rejected the offer

A left wing press? Some right-wing papers have turned on Johnson on specific issues but they have not moved over to the Starmer camp.

Judy Englander
Judy Englander
3 years ago
Reply to  SUSAN GRAHAM

Well said.

Nick Whitehouse
Nick Whitehouse
3 years ago

Interesting, but I think it misses the heart of the matter.
Thatcher was undone by her pro EU MPs. John Major by trying to go into the Euro (prototype) of the ERM. Cameron by trying to keep us in the EU with his referendum. May by trying to keep us in the EU.
There seems to be a pattern here, in our history.
Will Johnson learn from it?

Mike Boosh
Mike Boosh
3 years ago

We can only hope… But I’m not holding my breath. Powerful forces are determined to keep us in, I’m not convinced that Boris is strong enough to resist.

Carl Goulding
Carl Goulding
3 years ago

All he has to do is drive the final nail home in the Brexit coffin and denounce wokism and he will have almost cracked it. However, too tall an order I suspect.

bootsyjam
bootsyjam
3 years ago
Reply to  Carl Goulding

Yeah, he doesn’t believe in either so there’s no chance of it happening.
It won’t matter soon, he’ll be gone within a year or so.

Peter Scott
Peter Scott
3 years ago

There is one thing missing from this account. – Political wisdom.
Albeit the country may be only too inert and apathetic about other topics, clearly the public have got their resolve firmly clenched in the matter of one issue: real departure from any kind of control (in what domain soever) by the European Union.
This they cherish as a terrier holds onto a live rat it has caught in its teeth.

Given a referendum, a majority (now vastly increased by general disgust at the language and conduct of the European negotiators) voted to leave.
Given a General Election on the cry ‘Get Brexit Done!’, forty constituencies hitherto voting Labour solidly for 80-100 years switched to the Conservatives.
If the government found that we could only escape from every tentacle of EU control by being, one and all, vegan and dressed as Santa Claus for the next 6 months, most people in every environment – street, home, workplace – would be clad in that bulky red garb and consuming no animal products at all.

If Boris cannot perceive this home truth, then he will fall harder and lower still than his predecessors.

Boris from a child has wanted to be another Winston Churchill. Yet all these deadlines announced and passed, and the pantomime with the Brussels negotiators still dragging on, suggest an approach very un-Churchillian.

Warren Alexander
Warren Alexander
3 years ago

Johnson’s problems stem from his apparent incompetence and an utter refusal to present any evidence that justifies his destruction of the economy and the basic freedoms of people under the guise of defeating covid.

Judy Johnson
Judy Johnson
3 years ago

If his incompetence is apparent rather than real, does the foolishness and risk of such a pretence disqualify him from high office?

bootsyjam
bootsyjam
3 years ago

I completely agree, but then again every other Western nation (with the exception of Sweden) is doing the same thing.

Ess Arr
Ess Arr
3 years ago
Reply to  bootsyjam

Sweden, Sweden, Sweden. I really have to lay the blame for Sweden’s devastating second wave, on you, Tim C, Freddy Sayers, Scott Adams, Alex Berenson and others who were so eager to bash the media, that they indulged in breathtaking denialism re Sweden. And Sweden, preening and basking in the twits’ afterglow, neglected to take action. All I can say is “book ’em, Danno”.

shinybeast1
shinybeast1
3 years ago
Reply to  Ess Arr

Countries that had mild flu seasons for a few years prior to 2020 have had higher deaths than countries who had a more severe flu season. If you have more vulnerable people you will have more deaths.

J StJohn
J StJohn
3 years ago
Reply to  shinybeast1

Nail. Head.

bootsyjam
bootsyjam
3 years ago
Reply to  Ess Arr

What are you talking about? Look at Germany. Look at the most populous state in the USA (California). Then add in factors such as population density and the fact that we don’t live in totalitarian states (many seem to want to in the UK by the look of it) where we cannot and will not police the actions of individuals and allow them freedom. Adequately demonstrated by people leaving London on Saturday night before the lockdown. I bet you wish that we had a heavy police presence at all stations who would employ force to stop……people from going home/to family for Christmas. This is the price we pay for autonomy. And no it’s not the scummy Brexit voting working classes who are doing this. It’s the middle class know betters/it doesn’t apply to me who are also doing it.
The only place who has managed to effectively contain covid is…China. Wonder why that is? Bet you want a bit of their state force employed over here eh? That would sort us out good and proper.

Face facts. Hardly anyone under the age of 50 is dying. Even more so under the age of 40. Approximately 40 million people in the UK are under the age of 50. People who are dying are old and weak, or who are weak via illness.

Although it’s incredibly hard to find the stats for this younger age group disparity. Ever wonder why? Infection rates are frightening but they don’t change this.The virus is NOT DANGEROUS for the vast majority of the population. People who are dying are old and weak, or who are weak via illness. And even the old aren’t dying sometimes. A friend of mine has a 90 year old grandmother and she has it. She’s totally fine. No symptoms.

COVID is a relatively non lethal virus that spreads through populations. More so in populations that are densely packed. That’s it. Unless you kept everyone inside and no one had any contact with ANYONE then it will spread until there was a vaccine. Efforts taken by various govts have made no difference to this because we’re not a totalitarian police state. And even then, the virus spread fast. And we don’t know the actual figures for CHina do we?

It’s the illusion of control.

Teo
Teo
3 years ago

Looks like the destruction of the economy is the objective.

Nick Faulks
Nick Faulks
3 years ago

The writer, and the commenters, are tactfully ignoring the critical factor in this discussion. Since emerging from hospital Boris has been a wretched sight, kicked one way and another by advisers and incapable of taking an independent decision or sticking to one. The country will have no leadership until he goes, hopefully after we have finally escaped from the EU ( for which we must rely on Frost to keep him on the straight and narrow ).

Tony Reardon
Tony Reardon
3 years ago

I seem to remember that Mrs. Thatcher’s popularity went up remarkably during and after the Falklands War. Not sure there’s much chance of a small war that Boris can win quickly and easily in the next couple of years but you never
know. A new Cod war perhaps?

Mike Boosh
Mike Boosh
3 years ago
Reply to  Tony Reardon

Airlifts to break a Spanish blockade of Gibraltar?

J StJohn
J StJohn
3 years ago
Reply to  Mike Boosh

Restore the ‘Pale of Calais’ “!!?

Mark Corby
Mark Corby
3 years ago
Reply to  J StJohn

Conquer the Irish Republic. He should be able to manage that, and it will be good practice for the inevitable reconquest of Scotland.

Duncan Hunter
Duncan Hunter
3 years ago
Reply to  Mark Corby

Is it possible to be so crassly brainless?

Mark Corby
Mark Corby
3 years ago
Reply to  Duncan Hunter

Oh dear, what a humourless bunch you Scotch are!

Real Horrorshow
Real Horrorshow
3 years ago

Winning big in 2019 and Brexit will mean nothing if you’ve not been able
to prove the latter has indeed given you squillions to squirt on
schools and hospitals, and shinier town centres, in those Red Wall
seats;

I doubt if Johnson – or anyone in the Tory party – is interested in long term investment in Red Wall seats. After so long a period of neglect it would take too much time and too much money to make a real impact. There are cheaper, faster, more reliable ways to secure power.

I know a lot of Tory MPs and I am sad to say the public is basically
correct. Tory MPs largely do not care about these poorer people. They don’t care about the NHS.
– Dominic Cummings

Teo
Teo
3 years ago

keep banging that patriotic drum

My ears are bleeding already.

pauls7973
pauls7973
3 years ago

While people are blaming Boris for the adverse effects of lockdown it should be remembered that at the outset he was all for herd immunity but it seems he was got at in the same way he was got at over the nonsensical, Green Revolution.
Lockdowns serve only to slow spread, delay herd immuniity and allow the virus time to mutate.

John Riordan
John Riordan
3 years ago

Good article, and it echoes what I’ve been thinking myself about Thatcher’s first couple of years in office. I was only a kid at the time myself so I’m going as much upon modern commentary of the period as what I can remember directly, but it’s true: Thatcher’s first year or two was deeply messy, hard-fought and depressing. It did however prepare the ground for the later face-off with the unions, a battle that if it had gone the other way, would have finished off any chance of the UK ever recovering from the horrendous mess it had got itself into in the previous two decades.

The other impression I have since 2016 is that politics now reminds me very much of the early 1980s, when the political establishment along with the media, business and the chattering classes were all united against the democratically-mandated government. This is what it looks like when politics actually matters, and can actually make a difference. It’s not pleasant, I agree: it’s downright vicious at times, and it’s tempting to think nostalgically of the serene times of the late 1990s and early 2000s, when everyone just seemed to get along. However, that’s a mistake, because that’s when a lot of the generational errors were made for which we’re now still paying: the beginning-in-earnest of the voyage toward European federation, Britain dragged in its wake like a sulky teenager, and the seed of the subprime crisis sowed with the Clinton-era social justice reforms which would eventually nearly destroy the global banking system, and the recovery from which would expose the broken social contract of Western nations generally.

Covid19 has exposed that broken social contract once again, this time proving that Western democratic nations have had their institutions hollowed out to the extent that elected governments are now mostly dogs wagged by their tails.

I know it’s Christmas time when hope and nostalgia are in the ascendant, but pending the result of the trade deal negotiations between the UK and EU which will probably be announced later today )and the fact that Nigel Farage has for some reason jumped the gun with an approval of the deal he thinks Boris Johnson has got), I still have some optimism that 2021 may be a turn-the-corner moment for the UK. One might of course be uncharitable at this point and remark that things could hardly get worse, and one would have a fair point, granted.

For me however, I do think that there’s a bright future now there for the taking which looked in recent years and months as if it might never materialise.

Happy Christmas everyone.

Russ Littler
Russ Littler
3 years ago

Boris needs to have a major rethink about which side of history he wants to be on. As more and more people wake up and realize that there is no pandemic, and never was, he and his minions at SAGE are going to find themselves before a Nuremburg style trial, for crimes against humanity, along with all the rest of the medical mafia. He’s doing the bidding of Klaus Swab and the World Economic Forum at the moment, because he thinks the globalists have got rid of Trump, but that will be a huge mistake. Trump will be re-elected in January, and he will not look favourably on any UK Prime Minister who is colluding with Trumps enemies. Another mistake Boris is making is that the public will never forget the harm and damage he has done to the country, and the Tory party (along with Labour and the Lib/Dems) will be consigned to the dustbin of history forever. He’s skating on very thin ice.

matthewspring
matthewspring
3 years ago
Reply to  Russ Littler

“Trump will be re-elected in January”.
How so?

Russ Littler
Russ Littler
3 years ago
Reply to  matthewspring

6th January 2021. Watch n wait.

Paul Wright
Paul Wright
3 years ago
Reply to  Russ Littler

Did you go on a little field trip to DC? Any good pics on Instagram?