Robinson is often understood as the first president of the modern era and set the model for future leaders: academic, parental, calm, reliable and above all, establishment figures. Both she and her successors can legitimately be described as social justice campaigners to some degree. Irish people are conscious that this is a formal and ceremonial role, and this is the image they have chosen to project outwards.

Outsiders like McGregor who don’t quite fit the mould have run for the presidency in recent times, with mixed results. An interesting parallel is Martin McGuinness, candidate for Sinn Fein in 2011. McGuinness and his party had hoped that the glow of the peace process would have changed the default view of him as a shadowy, violent figure to something more respectable and statesmanlike.

But during the course of the campaign he was consistently attacked by the press, other candidates and members of the public regarding his involvement in the IRA activities. The continuous thrum of negativity harmed his campaign and — despite being the most recognisable name in the race — McGuinness came a disappointing third with around 14% of the votes.

It is of course absurd to compare Conor McGregor, who doesn’t even qualify as a political neophyte, to a nationally and historically important figure like McGuinness. But the comparison does hold up to the limited extent to how the Irish Public views the prospect of a president who would be seen as divisive, controversial, and burdened by their past. They don’t like it, no matter how famous you are, and will choose someone safe.

An alternative point of comparison is Peter Casey, who ran for president in 2018. Casey is and was initially seen as a business-focused candidate whose presidency would hope to draw investment to Ireland. However his campaign was energised by the negative remarks he made about Irish Travellers, becoming a de facto “anti-woke” candidate. He finished second with 23% of the vote. Casey could be seen as a proof of concept for a more successful McGregor-type candidate.

That prospective candidacy is viewed in Ireland in two contradictory ways. It’s firstly seen as absurd, with lots of mockery about his lack of familiarity with what the role entails. But it’s also seen as an upsetting irritation, with prominent politicians sufficiently disturbed by the prospect of McGregor’s candidacy that they feel they need to comment on how awful and inappropriate it would be. The laughter has an edge of panic.

Both the Government and media are keenly aware that the last decade has proven that political entrepreneurs will make their own opportunities where they spot a gap in the market that the establishment can’t or won’t fill. Every successive piece of polling in Ireland on immigration and change shows that such a gap exists, is big, and is growing. 

His dissimilarity from other political candidates of the past may mean that McGregor won’t fill it, but the powers that be know and fear that someone will; in politics as in life, nature abhors a vacuum.

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Conor Fitzgerald is a writer from Dublin. His Substack is TheFitzstack.

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