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August 21, 2023 - 7:00am
Over the past few weeks, western allies have grown increasingly pessimistic about Ukraine. This month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented that “the jury is still out” on the counter-offensive, adding that it will not be possible to know for “at least a month and maybe longer whether the counter-offensive is going to make significant strategic gains for Ukraine in terms of recovering territory”. Then over the weekend, Politico reported that American officials are now privately confessing to regrets that they did not heed the words of Joint Chiefs Chair General Mark Milley, who suggested peace talks back in November, with figures in the administration now fearing that the opportunity to push for negotiations may have been missed.
It is not just US officials voicing doubts about Ukraine’s progress either. Recently, American intelligence concluded that Ukraine’s forces will not reach the occupied southeastern city of Melitopol, which is a key transport and logistics hub. Its seizure would have allowed Ukraine to meet its key goal of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. US intelligence also has concerns regarding Ukraine’s offensive activities near Bakhmut in the east, fearing this has loosened the focus of the counter-assault in the south.
Currently, neither side in the war seems likely to change course. Russia has doubled its defence expenditure for this year and increased the age range for conscription. For its part, Ukraine has defended the success of its counter-offensive, with Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov describing it as “behind schedule” but still going to plan. Other Ukrainian figures have responded to allies’ gloomy prognostications with more venom: Defence Ministry official Oleksii Kopytko, for example, demanded to know what the Americans would do differently to halt the Russians on multiple fronts.
With the counter-offensive dragging on and both sides sticking to their tactics, the most significant changes on the battlefield could emanate in the US. The Biden administration is trying to get a request for additional aid to Ukraine through Congress in the face of rising Republican scepticism about continued US support for the war. But the stalled counter-offensive is only fuelling Republican doubts about how long the US can sustain Kyiv. This month Republican Congressman Andy Harris, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus and former steadfast supporter of aid to Ukraine, proposed winding down assistance to the country. He claimed that the counter-assault had “failed” and questioned if the war was even “winnable anymore”.
As the 2024 US Presidential election approaches, assistance to Ukraine is likely to become a hot topic as candidates vie for the support of a public similarly disillusioned by the idea of supplying Ukraine indefinitely. A CNN poll earlier this month found that 55% of Americans believe the US Congress should not authorise additional funding for Ukraine, with 51% feeling that America has already done enough to support Kyiv. Evidently, public support for Ukraine may finally be wearing out.
Nato official Stian Jenssen recently incurred Ukraine’s wrath when he suggested it could give up territory as part of a possible peace deal. While he subsequently walked back on those comments, it does speak to a sense in Western capitals that Ukraine’s stalled counter-offensive may have put it in a weaker position for any future peace negotiations. With no end to the war in sight, this is a grim reality that both Ukraine and the West may have to accept.
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SubscribeIs it a lack of broad life experience that causes our politicians to make such poor decisions? If, instead of being entirely populated with lawyers, bureaucrats and PPE graduates, our parliaments contained shopkeepers, doctors and bricklayers, would we get better government? I suspect we would.
Definitely. I don’t think there’s any doubt.
Housewives, famers, engineers and bricklayers have to deal with material reality.
Academics, PR Agents, NGO managers and journalists don’t.
Yes, yes we would – in every area of policy.
Agree…just no too many doctors please.
Definitely. I don’t think there’s any doubt.
Housewives, famers, engineers and bricklayers have to deal with material reality.
Academics, PR Agents, NGO managers and journalists don’t.
Yes, yes we would – in every area of policy.
Agree…just no too many doctors please.
Is it a lack of broad life experience that causes our politicians to make such poor decisions? If, instead of being entirely populated with lawyers, bureaucrats and PPE graduates, our parliaments contained shopkeepers, doctors and bricklayers, would we get better government? I suspect we would.
The Ukrainians would be well advised to study the past form of the United States. If one looks at the last eighty years of limited wars under the Pax Americana, there have been some rapid US successes, but another pattern is
1/ Americans arrive and throw enormous resources at a threatened country confident that they will solve the problem.
2/ They fail to negotiate a deal at this point of maximum psychological advantage.
3/ Things fail to go as well as hoped. Americans pump in more resources since they consider it would be the wrong moment to negotiate.
4/ Americans lose faith in success and seek to negotiate a deal but their opponents now see time as moving in their favour and prevaricate.
5/ Sometimes the Americans manage ultimately to negotiate a deal (e.g. Korea after threatening nuclear escalation) and sometimes they manage to exit with some dignity (e.g. Iraq) but on other occasions they have been forced to withdraw with undignified speed (e.g. Vietnam, Afghanistan).
Why this pattern exists is debatable. One possibility is that their history has conditioned the American military to see decisive victory followed by an imposed peace as the default outcome and that, as a result, they struggle to cope with the idea of limited wars ending with an agreement with an intact opponent. Arguably, in Afghanistan they failed to seize two timely opportunities to negotiate with the Taliban to their ultimate undoing. General Milley is the honourable exception which may prove the rule.
Given this pattern, being a junior ally of the USA is not without its challenges. Historically, Americans have tended to lack sympathy for leaders who were not in sync with the current phase of their thinking. In Vietnam, they overthrew Diem in part for showing a premature interest in talks but a few years later threatened Thieu for showing a lack of enthusiasm (as they had Rhee in Korea). I suspect that Milley was right and the optimal time to cut a deal would have been last autumn. Zelenskyy may come to regret not having done so.
In the aftermath of the “Great Bug Out” during the Korean War, my father commanded the most westerly British position with the neighbouring hill being defended by an American unit. Though generally pro-American, he did note that they not only tended to advance faster than the British but also to retreat even faster as well. Consequently, he had to put as much effort in persuading his American neighbours to stay put as in defending his own position against Chinese attacks. Compared to what Zelenskyy may face over the next year, I suspect his challenges were probably mild.
Fine, but you simply concentrate on the US.
You apparently know nothing about Russia.
Putin’s forces have suffered the same fate as “the Old Contemptibles” in the BEF. The Russia’s professional army is almost all gone.
But unlike Britain in the first world war, Putin still refuses to build a real conscript army.
Might want to look at the “Other Side of the Hill” at times.
Not doing so was why Putin has lost most of his gambits so far.
There is a difference perhaps between knowing nothing about a topic and not commenting on it in a specific post. That said, I think most western observers have struggled to read either Putin specifically or Russia in general.
There is a difference perhaps between knowing nothing about a topic and not commenting on it in a specific post. That said, I think most western observers have struggled to read either Putin specifically or Russia in general.
Fine, but you simply concentrate on the US.
You apparently know nothing about Russia.
Putin’s forces have suffered the same fate as “the Old Contemptibles” in the BEF. The Russia’s professional army is almost all gone.
But unlike Britain in the first world war, Putin still refuses to build a real conscript army.
Might want to look at the “Other Side of the Hill” at times.
Not doing so was why Putin has lost most of his gambits so far.
The Ukrainians would be well advised to study the past form of the United States. If one looks at the last eighty years of limited wars under the Pax Americana, there have been some rapid US successes, but another pattern is
1/ Americans arrive and throw enormous resources at a threatened country confident that they will solve the problem.
2/ They fail to negotiate a deal at this point of maximum psychological advantage.
3/ Things fail to go as well as hoped. Americans pump in more resources since they consider it would be the wrong moment to negotiate.
4/ Americans lose faith in success and seek to negotiate a deal but their opponents now see time as moving in their favour and prevaricate.
5/ Sometimes the Americans manage ultimately to negotiate a deal (e.g. Korea after threatening nuclear escalation) and sometimes they manage to exit with some dignity (e.g. Iraq) but on other occasions they have been forced to withdraw with undignified speed (e.g. Vietnam, Afghanistan).
Why this pattern exists is debatable. One possibility is that their history has conditioned the American military to see decisive victory followed by an imposed peace as the default outcome and that, as a result, they struggle to cope with the idea of limited wars ending with an agreement with an intact opponent. Arguably, in Afghanistan they failed to seize two timely opportunities to negotiate with the Taliban to their ultimate undoing. General Milley is the honourable exception which may prove the rule.
Given this pattern, being a junior ally of the USA is not without its challenges. Historically, Americans have tended to lack sympathy for leaders who were not in sync with the current phase of their thinking. In Vietnam, they overthrew Diem in part for showing a premature interest in talks but a few years later threatened Thieu for showing a lack of enthusiasm (as they had Rhee in Korea). I suspect that Milley was right and the optimal time to cut a deal would have been last autumn. Zelenskyy may come to regret not having done so.
In the aftermath of the “Great Bug Out” during the Korean War, my father commanded the most westerly British position with the neighbouring hill being defended by an American unit. Though generally pro-American, he did note that they not only tended to advance faster than the British but also to retreat even faster as well. Consequently, he had to put as much effort in persuading his American neighbours to stay put as in defending his own position against Chinese attacks. Compared to what Zelenskyy may face over the next year, I suspect his challenges were probably mild.
It seems ironic that the offensive that was supposed to strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining position has actually weakened it. This is what happens when you take notice of idiots like ex-PM Johnson and fantasists like Blinken and the rest of the neo-con lunatics that run US foreign policy.
The Russians have already stated that the West are “non-agreement capable” so they will see little incentive to negotiate, more-so since they seem to be severely mauling the Ukrainian Forces. It is going to be very bad for Ukraine, even worse than the current fiasco.
Nice dreams.
But at no time was Putin willing to negotiate seriously.
Might want to actually read what people who know something about this have said.
Alexander Gabuev says Putin is hoping that a long war will wear teh West down.
This will last well into next year, if not the next. With a million Russian casualties by year’s end.
Yes and if you want other expert pov’s you may seek out Douglas MacGregor or professor Mearsheimer.
Nice dreams.
But at no time was Putin willing to negotiate seriously.
Might want to actually read what people who know something about this have said.
Alexander Gabuev says Putin is hoping that a long war will wear teh West down.
This will last well into next year, if not the next. With a million Russian casualties by year’s end.
Yes and if you want other expert pov’s you may seek out Douglas MacGregor or professor Mearsheimer.
It seems ironic that the offensive that was supposed to strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining position has actually weakened it. This is what happens when you take notice of idiots like ex-PM Johnson and fantasists like Blinken and the rest of the neo-con lunatics that run US foreign policy.
The Russians have already stated that the West are “non-agreement capable” so they will see little incentive to negotiate, more-so since they seem to be severely mauling the Ukrainian Forces. It is going to be very bad for Ukraine, even worse than the current fiasco.
Too bad, it’s definitely thumbs down for Martin and no amount of shouting will change that. Western leaders are already looking for their excuses to get out of this mess which they initiated in a fit of madness in 2014. The idea that Ukraine could beat a Russia backed by China and most of the rest of the world was always a complete and very stupid fiction. With total air superiority Russia could have blasted most of Ukraine back to the stone age – the idea that they might want to invade Europe is simply crazy paranoia. Of course we should be trading with Russia not fighting a proxy war. The behaviour of the US, UK and EU has been, and continues to be, dis-honourable, short-sighted and just plain wrong! We’ve condemned thousands of young Ukrainians (and Russians) to death and destruction.
Too bad, it’s definitely thumbs down for Martin and no amount of shouting will change that. Western leaders are already looking for their excuses to get out of this mess which they initiated in a fit of madness in 2014. The idea that Ukraine could beat a Russia backed by China and most of the rest of the world was always a complete and very stupid fiction. With total air superiority Russia could have blasted most of Ukraine back to the stone age – the idea that they might want to invade Europe is simply crazy paranoia. Of course we should be trading with Russia not fighting a proxy war. The behaviour of the US, UK and EU has been, and continues to be, dis-honourable, short-sighted and just plain wrong! We’ve condemned thousands of young Ukrainians (and Russians) to death and destruction.
Rewarding aggression with land is pretty much the #1 prohibition in international law since ww2. Abandoning it will hav terrible consequences.
So why did so many countries play in the World Cup in Russia in 2018, four years after Russia annexed the Crimea?
The so called Good Friday Agreement, “rewarded aggression” if not with land but with power, and has had “terrible consequences”.
Let it go, Charles!
When we ‘let go’ of Northern Ireland, then I shall let go, as you so kindly advise.
Until that time it provides such a constant source of national embarrassment and amusement that it is simply impossible to ‘let go’.
When we ‘let go’ of Northern Ireland, then I shall let go, as you so kindly advise.
Until that time it provides such a constant source of national embarrassment and amusement that it is simply impossible to ‘let go’.
Wow, so Ireland hasn’t invaded Britain, since then?
Good job!
Did you know that Putin isn’t actually waging an insurgency in esatern Ukraine, as the IRA was in N. Ireland?
I know, all this foreign stuff can be confusing!
‘They’ don’t have to invade, ‘they’ are already here, and have been for sometime now.
Rather the point.
Northern Ireland is irrelevant.
No, it is just too expensive in more ways than one!
No, it is just too expensive in more ways than one!
Rather the point.
Northern Ireland is irrelevant.
‘They’ don’t have to invade, ‘they’ are already here, and have been for sometime now.
Let it go, Charles!
Wow, so Ireland hasn’t invaded Britain, since then?
Good job!
Did you know that Putin isn’t actually waging an insurgency in esatern Ukraine, as the IRA was in N. Ireland?
I know, all this foreign stuff can be confusing!
Unfortunately, violent changes to borders have occurred with fair regularity since the founding of the UN, and many an aggressor escaped reckoning. The current war can be seen as a terrible consequence of this pervasive disregard for international law among powerful nations.
There is no legal authority with power over Nations, so each Nation is free to act as it wishes.
There is no legal authority with power over Nations, so each Nation is free to act as it wishes.
So why did so many countries play in the World Cup in Russia in 2018, four years after Russia annexed the Crimea?
The so called Good Friday Agreement, “rewarded aggression” if not with land but with power, and has had “terrible consequences”.
Unfortunately, violent changes to borders have occurred with fair regularity since the founding of the UN, and many an aggressor escaped reckoning. The current war can be seen as a terrible consequence of this pervasive disregard for international law among powerful nations.
Rewarding aggression with land is pretty much the #1 prohibition in international law since ww2. Abandoning it will hav terrible consequences.
Welcome to the Martin Logan show, each new post even more delusional than the one that preceded it
Thanks for your wide knowledge of Russian and Ukraine.
BTW, you DO know that once you start watching videos of a certain type, eventually the algorithm will give you NOTHING but those kinds of videos?
Just thought you ought to know.
Thanks for your wide knowledge of Russian and Ukraine.
BTW, you DO know that once you start watching videos of a certain type, eventually the algorithm will give you NOTHING but those kinds of videos?
Just thought you ought to know.
Welcome to the Martin Logan show, each new post even more delusional than the one that preceded it
Interesting on a day when US sanctioned sale of F16s from Euro countries and when a senior Russian General allegedly stated Russia can’t win. The ‘fog of war’.
Some doubts/disappointment inevitable as hype about breakthrough to cut off Crimea, but Ukraine still being supported and, it seems, with increasingly likelihood NATO will provide some guarantees in any eventual negotiation.
Took two-three months before Allies broke out of the Normandy hedgerows in 44. Alot can happen yet.
Seems to me that NATO guarantees aren’t worth the paper it would be printed on. Do you think the West would be prepared for a direct and possibly nuclear confrontation with Russia over a country/region, Ukraine, that barely anybody in the west can even put a finger on. (And sure the readers of Unherd can do so, but they are not typical of the general population and especially not of the US, where most wouldn’t even be able to place the UK on a map).
Vastly amusing idea that Putin would destroy himself and his nation over eastern Ukraine.
Never hard of “Able Archer” I see.
Learn some history, Johann…
Yes I think they would. Remember a good number of NATO members would be v perturbed and worried by strategic implications for them of Ukraine falling back into the Russian sphere of influence. The US will support – unless Trump wins in 24, but will insist European countries provide more of the funding. The geo-political benefits of a neutered Putin not lost on the US.
Disagree, I think most of the oldsters know where these countries are.
Vastly amusing idea that Putin would destroy himself and his nation over eastern Ukraine.
Never hard of “Able Archer” I see.
Learn some history, Johann…
Yes I think they would. Remember a good number of NATO members would be v perturbed and worried by strategic implications for them of Ukraine falling back into the Russian sphere of influence. The US will support – unless Trump wins in 24, but will insist European countries provide more of the funding. The geo-political benefits of a neutered Putin not lost on the US.
Disagree, I think most of the oldsters know where these countries are.
Might also note that the breaking of the Gustav Line in Italy took even longer.
Again, Putin might have had a chance with full mobilization. The best he can do now is take university students out of class and put them in the factories.
They’ll go. But that’s the end of the next generation of technocrats.
“Grinding one’s seed corn” as it’s known…
Seems to me that NATO guarantees aren’t worth the paper it would be printed on. Do you think the West would be prepared for a direct and possibly nuclear confrontation with Russia over a country/region, Ukraine, that barely anybody in the west can even put a finger on. (And sure the readers of Unherd can do so, but they are not typical of the general population and especially not of the US, where most wouldn’t even be able to place the UK on a map).
Might also note that the breaking of the Gustav Line in Italy took even longer.
Again, Putin might have had a chance with full mobilization. The best he can do now is take university students out of class and put them in the factories.
They’ll go. But that’s the end of the next generation of technocrats.
“Grinding one’s seed corn” as it’s known…
Interesting on a day when US sanctioned sale of F16s from Euro countries and when a senior Russian General allegedly stated Russia can’t win. The ‘fog of war’.
Some doubts/disappointment inevitable as hype about breakthrough to cut off Crimea, but Ukraine still being supported and, it seems, with increasingly likelihood NATO will provide some guarantees in any eventual negotiation.
Took two-three months before Allies broke out of the Normandy hedgerows in 44. Alot can happen yet.
Every Ukrainian knows that they will be sent outside of Ukraine when/if Russia takes more of Ukraine.
This was standard Stalinist doctrine for people who fell under German control for just a few weeks. Every one of them could be a potential traitor. Every NKVD/KGB/FSB agent knows it was teh only way to pacify Ukraine.
Putin thought at the beginning of the war that he could act differently. Ukraine after all, “wasn’t a real state.”
But losing most of your regular army has badly frightened every Silovik, both inside and outside the Kremlin.
They know–and more importantly every Ukrainian knows they know–that no one can really be trusted. Even Putin’s spies betrayed him by giving false information.
Mariupol is already set to become a city filled with Russians from Russia. Most of the locals are gone–sent from teh filtration camps to deep inside Russia.
That will be the fate of every city that Putin captures.
Read Timothy Snyder’s “The Bloodlands,” or indeed any book about this period.
And stop kidding yourselves.
Great post.
All these Russian stooges or Lenin “usefull idiots” on this forum and others believe that by sacrificing Ukraine (country we know nothing about, can not place on the map etc) they will be safe.
Their grandparents were the idiots who ecstatically greeted Chamberlain holding piece of paper with Mr Hitler signature in 1938.
Somehow by 1940 France and Europe was conquered and Germany was bombing England.
Oh crikey will you ever let it go? No every situation is Hitler and WW II…
Oh crikey will you ever let it go? No every situation is Hitler and WW II…
Great post.
All these Russian stooges or Lenin “usefull idiots” on this forum and others believe that by sacrificing Ukraine (country we know nothing about, can not place on the map etc) they will be safe.
Their grandparents were the idiots who ecstatically greeted Chamberlain holding piece of paper with Mr Hitler signature in 1938.
Somehow by 1940 France and Europe was conquered and Germany was bombing England.
Every Ukrainian knows that they will be sent outside of Ukraine when/if Russia takes more of Ukraine.
This was standard Stalinist doctrine for people who fell under German control for just a few weeks. Every one of them could be a potential traitor. Every NKVD/KGB/FSB agent knows it was teh only way to pacify Ukraine.
Putin thought at the beginning of the war that he could act differently. Ukraine after all, “wasn’t a real state.”
But losing most of your regular army has badly frightened every Silovik, both inside and outside the Kremlin.
They know–and more importantly every Ukrainian knows they know–that no one can really be trusted. Even Putin’s spies betrayed him by giving false information.
Mariupol is already set to become a city filled with Russians from Russia. Most of the locals are gone–sent from teh filtration camps to deep inside Russia.
That will be the fate of every city that Putin captures.
Read Timothy Snyder’s “The Bloodlands,” or indeed any book about this period.
And stop kidding yourselves.
As predicted, with Washington’s money they have emptied half their country at the cost of half a million lives.
The window for peace was spring 2022, though clearly not for Boris Johnson, A Blinken and the shadowy Victoria Nuland running the neocon’s resurgent State Department.
All of the above can join Putin and friends as ‘war criminals’ in the Blair, Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld mould.
As predicted, with Washington’s money they have emptied half their country at the cost of half a million lives.
The window for peace was spring 2022, though clearly not for Boris Johnson, A Blinken and the shadowy Victoria Nuland running the neocon’s resurgent State Department.
All of the above can join Putin and friends as ‘war criminals’ in the Blair, Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld mould.
Many might actually check reality, rather than relying on ingenious analogies about past US wars.
The problem for Russia is that it cannot mobilize, whereas Ukraine already has.
There are literally millions of Russians with some military experience, but most with any smarts are in the cities–the “Hidden Reserves,” to use Stalin’s phrase.
But the moment Putin calls for mass mobilization is the moment the streets fill with families unwilling to send their sons to war.
Already Russian soldiers complain of being called “murderers” on Moscow streets. This war is exceedingly unpopular among city-dwelling Russians, for obvious reasons.
Which is why Putin is instead mobilizing Uzbek and Kazak permanent residents.
Sadly, they’re not very useful for anything but the usual “meat attacks.”
This will last well into 2024, and probably 2025, barring Putin’s fall.
Many might actually check reality, rather than relying on ingenious analogies about past US wars.
The problem for Russia is that it cannot mobilize, whereas Ukraine already has.
There are literally millions of Russians with some military experience, but most with any smarts are in the cities–the “Hidden Reserves,” to use Stalin’s phrase.
But the moment Putin calls for mass mobilization is the moment the streets fill with families unwilling to send their sons to war.
Already Russian soldiers complain of being called “murderers” on Moscow streets. This war is exceedingly unpopular among city-dwelling Russians, for obvious reasons.
Which is why Putin is instead mobilizing Uzbek and Kazak permanent residents.
Sadly, they’re not very useful for anything but the usual “meat attacks.”
This will last well into 2024, and probably 2025, barring Putin’s fall.
It takes two to tango.
Deeply pleased to note that no one presents any genuine alternatives to some very unfortunate facts.
In mathematics, some equations have no solution. Maybe that’s true in politics too.
In mathematics, some equations have no solution. Maybe that’s true in politics too.
Deeply pleased to note that no one presents any genuine alternatives to some very unfortunate facts.
As long as Ukraine is willing, it will get support from the West, particularly from Europe. The F-16s are but the latest example.
A Russia under Putin, and willing to rearm, will always be an existential threat to every European nation.
Ukraine is in the unenviable position of having a serial killer outside who turns off the heat and electricity. Yes, at times they may be cold and miserable. But no sane person would ever open the door–until they’re dead.
And Europe is in the next house over…
The Russians believe in the Domino Theory – the idea that just as Communism was supposed to spread south in Asia from Korea and Vietnam onwards, similarly NATO will spread east from Germany to Poland and beyond.
What could possibly have given the Russians that idea ?
Gasp!
NATO could be in POLAND next???
No wonder Putin is terrified!
What could possibly have given the Russians that idea ?
Gasp!
NATO could be in POLAND next???
No wonder Putin is terrified!
You are living in some altered reality. First, Russia, as opposed to the Soviet Union, has no designs on any other European nation. And Russia itself is a European nation. Second, as far as the Russians are concerned, Eastern Ukraine (which includes Odessa, a Russian city) are part of Russia and have always been part of Russia. Third, you know that things are going badly for Ukraine when the US and UK MSM don’t have blazing headlines outlining the successes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive every day. i.e. the less news reported in the western MSM, the worse it must be going for Ukraine.
It’s time to negotiate an honorable peace deal with Ukraine keeping Western Ukraine, and Russia annexing Eastern Ukraine. That would be a legitimate solution and be consistent with the history of Ukraine.
Vastly amusing that you think Russia is “a European nation.”
Sadly, Putin doesn’t think so:
“We may look like you, but we aren’t like you.”
You simply don’t understand how the rulers of Russia think. It’s been the same since 1917. Traitors are seen everywhere–because the NKVD/KGB/FSB couldn’t exist if there weren’t. This is their one and only JOB.
And every Ukrainian KNOWS that.
Sadder still for your “peace plan,” the Ukrainian politician that got the vast majority of votes in the last election…was the peace candidate Zelensky.
Putin’s forces thus now see all Ukrainians as traitors. It’s their JOB to see that. And as in WW2, anyone who falls into the hands of the “enemy” is suspect, and must be “de-Nazified.” For most, that will be transport to Siberia–if their lucky.
If not, well, you’ve seen Bucha.
So, learn something about Russia. Regardless of what the US or Europe does, this war will continue into 2024 and probably 2025. At the least a million dead Russians, and perhaps half that number for Ukraine.
And again, because no one would open the door to a psychotic murderer outside, even if they were frozen and starving.
That’s not how humans behave.
NYT reported 500K Ukrainian military deaths and wounded so far. Where are they going to get this properly trained up army from? What about equipment? All your fake numbers are catching up Martin.
The Russian losses are also higher, and as I indicated, Putin cannot fully mobilize, at least in the big cities.
The fact remains: Ukraine just won’t surrender any of its territory.
Get used to it.
But you’re busted Martin. All of your phony narrative has been busted. These figures are miles off from the narrative you pushed! Yet no shame, no acknowledgement, no humility, no realization that you’ve been duped and been duping others, but you just ignore all that, and move on as if nothing has been revealed. Now you seem to be seeking to move the goalposts.
I’m laughing as I write this.
You seem to be confusing me with someone else.
–I’ve stated from day one that Russia has no chance of winning this war.
That was when they were on the outskirts of Kyiv, and people like you were saying to negotiate–after you said Russia would never invade.
I said most of the regular Russian army’s tanks would never return to Russia. A pretty good assessment of the losses so far. The Russian regular army is essentially as gone as teh “Old Contemptibles” were
–I said this would destabilize Russia. Er, I think a revolt by Prigozhin is evidence of…a few problems.
–Most of all, when one bright bulb said the losses in the war would be “15,000-tops” I said this was going to be a very long war–because Ukraine wouldn’t give up.
–Finally, please cite where I said Ukrainian losses weren’t significant. They are very heavy, and will be heavy in the future.
But the war won’t end anytime soon–barring Putin’s fall.
And no one can predict that…
With the known casualty rates, it should be possible to predict when one side will run out of soldiers. Then the war will end.
With the known casualty rates, it should be possible to predict when one side will run out of soldiers. Then the war will end.
I’m laughing as I write this.
You seem to be confusing me with someone else.
–I’ve stated from day one that Russia has no chance of winning this war.
That was when they were on the outskirts of Kyiv, and people like you were saying to negotiate–after you said Russia would never invade.
I said most of the regular Russian army’s tanks would never return to Russia. A pretty good assessment of the losses so far. The Russian regular army is essentially as gone as teh “Old Contemptibles” were
–I said this would destabilize Russia. Er, I think a revolt by Prigozhin is evidence of…a few problems.
–Most of all, when one bright bulb said the losses in the war would be “15,000-tops” I said this was going to be a very long war–because Ukraine wouldn’t give up.
–Finally, please cite where I said Ukrainian losses weren’t significant. They are very heavy, and will be heavy in the future.
But the war won’t end anytime soon–barring Putin’s fall.
And no one can predict that…
But you’re busted Martin. All of your phony narrative has been busted. These figures are miles off from the narrative you pushed! Yet no shame, no acknowledgement, no humility, no realization that you’ve been duped and been duping others, but you just ignore all that, and move on as if nothing has been revealed. Now you seem to be seeking to move the goalposts.
But they’ll keep fighting because the threat is existential – Bucha. Yes huge losses, but Ukrainians can’t fold and they know that.
Our people will eventually be expected to go I would think. Especially if the idiot Biden wins in 24.
The Russian losses are also higher, and as I indicated, Putin cannot fully mobilize, at least in the big cities.
The fact remains: Ukraine just won’t surrender any of its territory.
Get used to it.
But they’ll keep fighting because the threat is existential – Bucha. Yes huge losses, but Ukrainians can’t fold and they know that.
Our people will eventually be expected to go I would think. Especially if the idiot Biden wins in 24.
i think that you are correct – the most powerful dynamic in this war may be the psychological factor – ie it is just too unsafe to stop fighting the Russians because they will do you much harm if the defending ever stops . I see clear parallels with Israel – there is just-no-other-option but to keep fighting towards whatever bitter end there is . Far better to go down fighting than to put up with gawd knows what the russians have in mind for the losers. OR best case a North-South Korea scenario that will go on for a long time because any ‘peace’ deal with Russians will be a liars festival…
You are too generous to Russia, I am afraid.
The way they operate did not start in 1917.
It was always like this since the day Moscowy were Tatars tax collectors in 1300s.
They were never European in any meaningful sense.
Yes, maybe 20% feel European, mostly in big cities.
The rest have a psyche of serfs.
Let’s not forget that serfdom was only abolished in Russia in 1860s.
Whether is is Tsarism, Communism or Putinism, it is the same genocidal Russian imperialism.
NYT reported 500K Ukrainian military deaths and wounded so far. Where are they going to get this properly trained up army from? What about equipment? All your fake numbers are catching up Martin.
i think that you are correct – the most powerful dynamic in this war may be the psychological factor – ie it is just too unsafe to stop fighting the Russians because they will do you much harm if the defending ever stops . I see clear parallels with Israel – there is just-no-other-option but to keep fighting towards whatever bitter end there is . Far better to go down fighting than to put up with gawd knows what the russians have in mind for the losers. OR best case a North-South Korea scenario that will go on for a long time because any ‘peace’ deal with Russians will be a liars festival…
You are too generous to Russia, I am afraid.
The way they operate did not start in 1917.
It was always like this since the day Moscowy were Tatars tax collectors in 1300s.
They were never European in any meaningful sense.
Yes, maybe 20% feel European, mostly in big cities.
The rest have a psyche of serfs.
Let’s not forget that serfdom was only abolished in Russia in 1860s.
Whether is is Tsarism, Communism or Putinism, it is the same genocidal Russian imperialism.
Or annexing the 6% of land belonging to the seoaratists and keeping Crimea.
You are disgusting piece of vermin.
There was Ukrainian independence referendum in 1991 and both Donbass and Luhansk voted over 83% to be part of Ukraine.
Even Crimea voted 54% for the same.
So there is no majority in any part of Ukraine to be part of Russia.
There is obviously nothing honourable in your proposal and you know it.
Vastly amusing that you think Russia is “a European nation.”
Sadly, Putin doesn’t think so:
“We may look like you, but we aren’t like you.”
You simply don’t understand how the rulers of Russia think. It’s been the same since 1917. Traitors are seen everywhere–because the NKVD/KGB/FSB couldn’t exist if there weren’t. This is their one and only JOB.
And every Ukrainian KNOWS that.
Sadder still for your “peace plan,” the Ukrainian politician that got the vast majority of votes in the last election…was the peace candidate Zelensky.
Putin’s forces thus now see all Ukrainians as traitors. It’s their JOB to see that. And as in WW2, anyone who falls into the hands of the “enemy” is suspect, and must be “de-Nazified.” For most, that will be transport to Siberia–if their lucky.
If not, well, you’ve seen Bucha.
So, learn something about Russia. Regardless of what the US or Europe does, this war will continue into 2024 and probably 2025. At the least a million dead Russians, and perhaps half that number for Ukraine.
And again, because no one would open the door to a psychotic murderer outside, even if they were frozen and starving.
That’s not how humans behave.
Or annexing the 6% of land belonging to the seoaratists and keeping Crimea.
You are disgusting piece of vermin.
There was Ukrainian independence referendum in 1991 and both Donbass and Luhansk voted over 83% to be part of Ukraine.
Even Crimea voted 54% for the same.
So there is no majority in any part of Ukraine to be part of Russia.
There is obviously nothing honourable in your proposal and you know it.
Let me try to understand this. Russia has its hands full invading Ukraine. Buoyed by such success, they will think it a great idea to invade an actual NATO member?
Uh, once they rearm with oil sales, that’s exactly what Putin plans to do.
After the very limited results for “Novorossiya” it took him 8 years to get the Russian army ready for Kyiv.
He and his FSB buddies will gladly wait that long.
Security people don’t die in Ukraine.
Just conscripts from Siberia…and prisons.
Come on Martin give it a rest! That’s 14 posts so far today!
Let’s face it Ukraine has lost and its ‘all over bar the shouting’.
Perhaps a little dignity may be salvaged from a compromise peace.
Please explain how this war can possible end.
Putin can never end this war with what he has now.
Ukraine won’t give up a yard of territory so far, and will continue fighting even if western support is withdrawn (F-16s seem to suggest that will continue)
So, senile mutterings about “negotiations…negotiations…” really don’t get anyone anywhere.
The best model is Afghanistan.
Russia will fight–until it finally goes back across the border.
I’m sorry Martin but it is your good self that sounds senile with all this “No surrender “ ranting.
If and when Western support is withdrawn, Ukraine will sink like a stone. A harsh but unavoidable judgment.
Ukraine will negotiate when they run out of arms from the West .
I’m sorry Martin but it is your good self that sounds senile with all this “No surrender “ ranting.
If and when Western support is withdrawn, Ukraine will sink like a stone. A harsh but unavoidable judgment.
Ukraine will negotiate when they run out of arms from the West .
Please explain how this war can possible end.
Putin can never end this war with what he has now.
Ukraine won’t give up a yard of territory so far, and will continue fighting even if western support is withdrawn (F-16s seem to suggest that will continue)
So, senile mutterings about “negotiations…negotiations…” really don’t get anyone anywhere.
The best model is Afghanistan.
Russia will fight–until it finally goes back across the border.
Come on Martin give it a rest! That’s 14 posts so far today!
Let’s face it Ukraine has lost and its ‘all over bar the shouting’.
Perhaps a little dignity may be salvaged from a compromise peace.
Uh, once they rearm with oil sales, that’s exactly what Putin plans to do.
After the very limited results for “Novorossiya” it took him 8 years to get the Russian army ready for Kyiv.
He and his FSB buddies will gladly wait that long.
Security people don’t die in Ukraine.
Just conscripts from Siberia…and prisons.
The Russians believe in the Domino Theory – the idea that just as Communism was supposed to spread south in Asia from Korea and Vietnam onwards, similarly NATO will spread east from Germany to Poland and beyond.
You are living in some altered reality. First, Russia, as opposed to the Soviet Union, has no designs on any other European nation. And Russia itself is a European nation. Second, as far as the Russians are concerned, Eastern Ukraine (which includes Odessa, a Russian city) are part of Russia and have always been part of Russia. Third, you know that things are going badly for Ukraine when the US and UK MSM don’t have blazing headlines outlining the successes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive every day. i.e. the less news reported in the western MSM, the worse it must be going for Ukraine.
It’s time to negotiate an honorable peace deal with Ukraine keeping Western Ukraine, and Russia annexing Eastern Ukraine. That would be a legitimate solution and be consistent with the history of Ukraine.
Let me try to understand this. Russia has its hands full invading Ukraine. Buoyed by such success, they will think it a great idea to invade an actual NATO member?
As long as Ukraine is willing, it will get support from the West, particularly from Europe. The F-16s are but the latest example.
A Russia under Putin, and willing to rearm, will always be an existential threat to every European nation.
Ukraine is in the unenviable position of having a serial killer outside who turns off the heat and electricity. Yes, at times they may be cold and miserable. But no sane person would ever open the door–until they’re dead.
And Europe is in the next house over…