October 29 2026 - 10:00am
We are now officially less than one week out from election day in the 2026 midterms. As things stand, it’s shaping up to be a very good one for the Democratic Party. President Donald Trump’s approval rating hit just 36.9% this week, matching George W. Bush’s rating heading into the 2006 midterms, when Democrats flipped both the House and Senate. Voters have soured on the Iran war and are frustrated with high gas prices. Many feel that the administration has not done enough to tackle their number one issue: the cost of living.
Short of a massive polling error — which is possible, but far from a given — Democrats should win back the House and have a strong shot at the Senate. If that comes to pass, the party will face an important question: what lessons should it take from its victory?
The danger for Democrats lies in becoming complacent after a possible blue wave, and using their victory to push pet issues that turn off many voters. It wouldn’t be the first time they have made such a mistake. After the 2018 midterms, Democrats won back the House with a sizable majority. Over the next two years, they devoted much of their time to partisan battles with the White House. These included investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election and two impeachment efforts.
They did pursue an ambitious policy agenda, though only part of it focused on the issues Americans prioritized most: healthcare and the economy, according to 2018 exit polls. House Democrats also passed legislation to expand some Medicare benefits and raise the minimum wage. Yet beyond that, much of their agenda appeared to be designed primarily with their base in mind: passing bills on LGBT issues and liberalizing immigration policy, while introducing others on reparations and the Green New Deal.
At the same time, the Democratic presidential primary field was forming, with a strong Leftward pull. Ultimately, primary voters chose the candidate who had run the most moderate campaign: Joe Biden. However, in the same election that brought Biden to the White House, Democrats actually lost seats in the House. And while Biden won, his victory was much narrower than people remember, coming from just 43,000 more votes than Trump across three swing states. The result was hardly an endorsement of the Democratic Party or its agenda — and a sign that the party may have misread the results of the 2018 midterm election.
It’s crucial for Democrats to remember, then, that midterms are almost always a referendum on the incumbent president and their party. This has been true for most of American history. Thus, a big Democratic victory will almost certainly reflect voter dissatisfaction with Trump and the Republicans, rather than an endorsement of the party’s priorities.
Consider the results of a recent CBS News/YouGov survey: 58% of likely Democratic voters said their support was mainly to “stop Trump and Republican policies”, while only 42% said it was to “help Democrats get their policies”. On top of that, 59% of likely voters believed that if Republicans win control of Congress again, their policies would cause gas prices to go up. However, only 35% believed the opposite to be true if Democrats win.
The New York Times has reported that if Democrats do win back the House, their early priorities would include restoring healthcare subsidies, reversing Trump’s Medicaid cuts, ending his tariffs, restoring congressional authority over trade, and ending the war in Iran. These are all broadly popular moves which address the issues voters say matter most to them, particularly the high cost of living and healthcare. But some Democrats also appear eager for another impeachment fight, whether with Trump himself or War Secretary Pete Hegseth. And some members of the party’s ascendant Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) faction who are set to join the next Congress have also signaled they will press for legislation on contentious issues such as trans rights.
Democrats must not get too comfortable. The lesson of the current political era for both parties should be that Americans don’t much care for either one. Voters aren’t looking for radical, ideologically driven change so much as sane, competent governance to help stabilize America’s democracy and tackle the economic struggles many people face. Win big or small, the Democrats would be wise to keep this in mind — and remain humble in the face of victory — as they prepare to assume control of the next Congress.
