May 21 2026 - 4:00pm
Earlier this year, I wrote for UnHerd about how UK net migration would fall sharply in 2026 — and that it could even turn negative. However, new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), published today for the year ending December 2025, show only a modest decline to 171,000, down from 204,000 in the previous estimate for the year ending June 2025.
The net migration figure for the year ending June 2025 has since been revised up to 219,000, after earlier estimates overstated emigration among family visa holders. On that basis, net migration has fallen by 48,000 over six months. The question now is what is driving this decline — and whether Britain is still on course for a much sharper fall over the remainder of the year.
The headline fall in net migration is therefore less about a surge in departures than a slowdown in arrivals. The drop is driven by a fall in immigration from 888,000 to 813,000. Emigration, meanwhile, also declined — from 669,000 to 642,000 — largely due to fewer EU nationals leaving the UK.
| Legal immigration into Britain is falling across all sectors |
| Visa grants by visa group type |
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Excluding visitor and transit visas, total visa grants fell by 43,000 — from 852,000 in the year ending June 2025 to 809,000 in the year ending December 2025. The bulk of this decline came from work visas, which drove the overall downturn.
Student visa grants also edged down, falling by 7,000, likely reflecting tighter compliance rules and enforcement. Family visas slipped by a further 4,000. Within that category, refugee family reunion visas declined from 21,000 to 19,000 — a fall that is likely to accelerate sharply in 2026 following the closure of the route to new applicants in September last year.
The fall in the “Other” category was driven by fewer immigrants entering on humanitarian visas from Hong Kong and Afghanistan, while fewer non-EU nationals are joining their EU-national family members. Further falls are expected in this area because of the closure of the Afghan resettlement scheme.
| Both skilled worker and care worker grants are falling |
| Work visa grants by category |
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Long-term work visa grants fell from around 172,000 to 148,000, reflecting a tightening of the visa regime that now restricts eligibility largely to graduate-level roles and designated shortage occupations. Skilled worker visa grants only fell slowly because of a glut of visa applications last July before the new rules came into effect. Health and care visas have fallen more quickly because of reduced NHS recruitment of nurses and a ban on overseas recruitment of care workers. Applications for work visas have continued to decline in 2026.
Dependent numbers have fallen slowly, despite the ban on dependents for new workers in jobs below graduate level. This is because many workers only bring their family to join them once they are established in the UK. Therefore, the high number of dependents is being fueled by the surge of people who have arrived on work visas in recent years.
Aside from the continued drop in immigration, the major driver of falling net migration in 2026 is the expiration of graduate visas, with 144,000 expiring in the year ending December 2025, compared to 120,000 in the year ending June 2025. This year, a further 236,000 are due to expire.
Net migration continued to go down in the latter half of 2025, but this isn’t the final story: it still has much further to fall. A drop of 48,000 in six months may seem like a lot. But the rate of decline will only accelerate in 2026, given that work and student visa grants are falling just as emigration of graduate visa holders starts to increase.
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