It is true that Labour is losing votes to both Reform UK and the Greens. But the notion that British politics can be divided into neat and distinct “Left” and “Right” blocs is misguided. For instance, some lifelong Tories despise Reform, even preferring a Keir Starmer premiership. Some Reform voters are more sympathetic to the Greens than they are to Labour. Crucially, this misconception risks ignoring a crucial voter group: the “center bloc”. As the author Sam Freedman found last month, there are 28% of voters who would “seriously consider” backing at least one party in a different bloc from their current preference.

These voters are younger, more diverse, are more likely to be university graduates and higher earners, and are often based in urban or suburban areas. As Freedman notes, the Left and Right blocs have similarities, such as their “anti-system” tendencies. Yet voters who occupy the “center bloc” are distinct from these other groups in their attitudes. They are more positive towards business, more fiscally conservative (although still supportive of welfare and public services), less hostile towards politicians and more trusting of fellow citizens. Freedman observes that they are more likely to think everyone can get on in life. Most of them voted Labour at the last general election, but they could vote Tory in future.

While the electorate has polarized on Brexit, the center bloc is broadly culturally centrist. Its members are more critical of rejoining the European Union than the Left bloc, considering that over a third voted for Brexit. They generally support legal immigration, and are more pro-immigration than the Right bloc. However, they are far more restrictionist on illegal migration and asylum than the Left. Much of this matches other polls which have captured similar electoral cohorts.

To shore up this voter group, Labour should consider introducing stricter controls on illegal immigration. The Government could also offer more help for people to get on the housing ladder, maintaining the existing fiscal rules so as to avoid spiraling mortgage rates, and action on student debt. Instead of indulging progressive hobby horses, these policies could serve as indications that the party is on the side of the center bloc.

Labour’s soft Left may be right about Starmer’s pivot to the Right. The PM’s “island of strangers” speech, far from abating a Reform surge, instead pushed Left-wing voters away from Labour. McSweeney’s chosen tactic of what his critics would term “hippy-punching” ultimately proved counterproductive, while Polanski’s rise and subsequent success were, in part, a consequence of that failure. Yet lurching Left risks alienating the center bloc, whose votes are more efficient. The wiser approach is to treat the Green wave less as a threat than an opportunity: consolidate the center bloc while maintaining current Labour support. A further shift Leftwards could prove electorally ruinous.