The Office for National Statistics (ONS) this week revised its net migration projections down from 340,000 to 230,000 a year. As a result of falling immigration and a decline in births, the population is now predicted to reach 71 million by 2034, and not 72.2 million as previously thought. Yet even this revised prediction may be overestimating the number of immigrants entering Britain.

Net migration had already fallen to 204,000, lower than the projected figure, by the year ending June 2025. That was largely before the new immigration restrictions introduced in the Immigration White Paper last May. Monthly visa application figures show that immigration has fallen significantly because of these restrictions.

Legal immigration into Britain is falling

Average visa applications per month

The Immigration White Paper has restricted work visa rules so that only graduate-level jobs and shortage medium-skilled occupations are eligible for a work visa. Only workers in graduate-level jobs can bring dependents, while the English language requirement has been increased from B1 to B2.

Due to these restrictions, monthly applications by main applicants for work visas have fallen by 60% from 6,200 to 2,500. Meanwhile, monthly applications for work visa dependents have decreased 33% from 8,300 to 5,500. It is likely that dependent numbers will drop further in future, following the trend seen for main applicants. Family visa applications have fallen by 25% from 6,400 to 4,800 a month, thanks to the suspension of refugee family reunion applications last year.

Student visa applications for January to March are 31% lower in 2026 than 2025, a fall from 43,100 to 29,900. International student numbers are likely to decrease even further because of a higher rejection rate for student visas and tougher compliance rules for visa sponsors, which could see half of all universities face limits on overseas recruitment. Some universities have suspended recruitment from Pakistan and Bangladesh, due to the high visa rejection rate.

Even asylum seeker numbers have now started to fall, following wider European trends. As of 29 April, 6,416 people had arrived in the UK by small boat — 38% lower than the 10,358 people who had arrived by this date in 2025.

Not only is immigration falling in all major categories, but emigration is increasing too. A large number of graduate visas will expire in 2026 and the first half of 2027. The Earned Settlement proposals, if they go ahead, will see many immigrants already living in Britain leave the country. The fall in immigration and an increase in emigration are steep enough that net migration could even become negative for a few years.

By 2029, net migration will increase again because of a fall in emigration of international students and EU nationals. Based on current trends and immigration rules, net migration is unlikely to reach as high as 230,000, and is more likely to settle at around half this level.

However, there is no guarantee that current trends and immigration rules will remain the same in the long term. Net migration would be lower under a Reform UK government or higher under a Green Party government, based on their respective policies. Net migration could increase if there is a rise in demand by employers for high-skilled workers, a return to growing international student numbers, or a new refugee crisis.

The ONS is predicting that net migration will increase to 230,000 by 2027. Yet this is very unrealistic in the short term, given that immigration is falling while emigration increases. Net migration will increase again in the long term due to a fall in emigration, but current trends suggest it will remain much lower than 230,000. The ONS will therefore once again have to revise its population projections downward.